House Effects
Monday, November 2, 20261 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Senate · 2026

Michigan Senate

Abdul El-Sayed (D)v.Mike Rogers (R)LIKELY D

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin
D+4.5
Nine in ten outcomes: D+12 to R+3
Chance of winning
84%
Abdul El-Sayed
Polls alone
D+4.4
66 polls from 40 pollsters; latest Nov 1. Weight in projection: 83%.
Fundamentals alone
D+5.2
Weight in projection: 17%.
Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

R+20R+15R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10D+15Jun ’25SepDecMar ’26JunSepD+4.4Election Day
adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor
Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.2).

What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.4
Partisan lean0.0
National environmentD+3.8
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundraising gapD+0.9
Fundamentals estimateD+5.2
Input: partisan lean
D+0.1
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$5.6M D · $3.4M R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup
Not an input to the projection.
Table view

All 66 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

DatesPollsterSampleEl-SayedRogersAs publishedAdjustedShare of average
Oct 23 – Nov 1The New York Times/Siena College1,011 LV5342D+11D+10.3
moved 0.7 toward R
7.1%
source
Oct 30 – Nov 1Research Co.450 LV4846D+2D+2.0
6.0%
source
Oct 28–29Rasmussen Reports745 LV4944D+5D+5.5
moved 0.5 toward D
5.5%
source
Oct 26–29YouGov2,093 LV5147D+4D+3.7
moved 0.3 toward R
5.7%
source
Oct 24–28Upswing ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED
for Demand Justice
505 LV5045D+5D+1.5
moved 3.5 toward R
5.7%
source
Oct 20–27SSRS
for CNN
768 LV4942D+7D+6.7
moved 0.3 toward R
4.8%
source
Oct 26–27Mitchell Research & Communications
for CBS Detroit
636 LV5144D+7D+7.1
moved 0.1 toward D
5.5%
source
Oct 23–25Data for Progress622 LV5046D+4D+4.1
moved 0.1 toward D
5.1%
source
Oct 8–23Verasight1,383 LV50.543.1D+7D+7.2
moved 0.2 toward R
4.1%
source
Oct 20–23RedBox ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED
for A Fight Worth Having
2,696 LV4944D+5D+2.8
moved 2.2 toward R
4.1%
source
Oct 8–23Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research1,383 LV49.542.5D+7D+6.9
moved 0.1 toward R
4.0%
source
Oct 21–22InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV4746D+1D+1.6
moved 0.6 toward D
4.3%
source
Oct 19–22Glengariff Group
for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV
600 LV5145D+6D+6.0
4.0%
source
Oct 2–19Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research836 LV4845D+3D+2.9
moved 0.1 toward R
1.6%
source
Oct 2–19YouGov836 LV4845.5D+3D+2.2
moved 0.3 toward R
1.8%
source
Oct 15–18Marist College— LV5048D+2D+2.2
moved 0.2 toward D
3.5%
source
Oct 12–14Rasmussen Reports798 LV4644D+2D+2.5
moved 0.5 toward D
1.4%
source
Oct 9–10InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV4846D+2D+2.6
moved 0.6 toward D
1.2%
source
Oct 6–8The Tyson Group
for Alliance for a Better Future
600 LV4446R+2R+1.9
moved 0.1 toward D
2.0%
source
Oct 5–6Quantus InsightsREP.-ALIGNED762 LV49.548D+2D+5.1
moved 3.6 toward D
1.9%
source
Sep 22 – Oct 4YouGov3,949 LV4948D+1D+0.7
moved 0.3 toward R
0.4%
source
Sep 28 – Oct 1Z to A ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED
for Rust Belt Rising
483 LV4942D+7D+3.5
moved 3.5 toward R
1.5%
source
Oct 1Mitchell Research & Communications
for CBS Detroit
682 LV4641D+5D+5.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.8%
source
Sep 28–30Trafalgar GroupREP.-ALIGNED1,085 LV4745D+2D+5.6
moved 3.6 toward D
1.5%
source
Sep 24–28Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
1,028 LV5049D+1D+1.3
moved 0.3 toward D
1.6%
source
Sep 20–27Guidant Polling and StrategyREP.-ALIGNED
for Public First Action
800 LV4843D+5D+8.7
moved 3.7 toward D
1.2%
source
Sep 20–27Guidant Polling & Strategy
for Public First Action
800 LV48.544D+5D+4.5
1.2%
source
Sep 24–27Marist College1,235 RV5144D+7D+7.2
moved 0.2 toward D
0.4%
source
Sep 24–27The Tyson Group
for Alliance for a Better Future
600 LV4443D+1D+1.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.6%
source
Sep 22–24Big Data Poll
for Public Polling Project
678 LV46.742.1D+5D+4.6
1.1%
source
Sep 21–23co/efficient843 LV4545EvenD+0.2
moved 0.2 toward D
1.1%
source
Sep 19–22GBAODEM.-ALIGNED800 LV4844D+4D+0.5
moved 3.5 toward R
1.1%
source
Sep 15–22The New York Times/Siena College605 LV49.544.5D+5D+4.2
moved 0.7 toward R
0.6%
source
Sep 18–21Cygnal
for Michigan Enjoyer
600 LV4540D+5D+5.1
moved 0.1 toward D
1.2%
source
Sep 16–20Suffolk University500 LV46.839.6D+7D+6.9
moved 0.3 toward R
1.0%
source
Sep 15–19Torchlight StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED
for Common Sense for America PAC
643 LV43.144.4R+1D+2.5
moved 3.8 toward D
0.9%
source
Sep 16–17InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV46.644.7D+2D+2.5
moved 0.6 toward D
0.2%
source
Sep 12–14Emerson College
for Nexstar
1,000 LV48.245.7D+2D+2.2
moved 0.2 toward R
0.9%
source
Sep 10–14The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government803 LV4845D+3D+2.7
moved 0.3 toward R
0.8%
source
Sep 7–9Trafalgar GroupREP.-ALIGNED1,079 LV46.344.8D+2D+5.1
moved 3.6 toward D
0.3%
source
Aug 31 – Sep 6CNN843 LV4744D+3D+3.0
0.5%
source
Aug 31 – Sep 3Glengariff Group
for Detroit News | WDIV-TV
600 LV44.445.8R+1R+1.4
0.2%
source
Aug 22–28EPIC-MRA600 LV4743D+4D+3.9
moved 0.1 toward R
0.3%
source
Aug 26–28Abacus Data332 LV4742D+5D+5.0
0.3%
source
Aug 10–20Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov779 LV5045D+5D+5.0
0.2%
source
Aug 11–17Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.800 RV4639D+7D+7.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.1%
source
Aug 9–11Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research
for AARP
877 LV4847D+1D+1.0
0.2%
source
Aug 6–10GBAODEM.-ALIGNED
for Senate Majority PAC
800 LV5044D+6D+2.5
moved 3.5 toward R
0.1%
source
Aug 6–10Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
1,006 RV4751R+4R+3.7
moved 0.3 toward D
0.0%
source
Aug 6–10TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED
for League of American Workers
1,215 LV45.442.3D+3D+7.0
moved 3.8 toward D
0.1%
source
Jul 24–31EPIC-MRA
for MIRS News Service
600 LV4346R+3R+3.1
moved 0.1 toward R
0.0%
source
Jul 28–30SoCal ResearchREP.-ALIGNED
for Red Eagle Politics
640 LV4142R+1D+2.6
moved 3.6 toward D
0.1%
source
Jul 28–29Mitchell Research & Communications672 LV4545EvenD+0.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.0%
source
Jul 22–24Glengariff Group
for Business Leaders for Michigan | Michigan Education Association
600 LV38.749R+10R+10.3
0.0%
source
Jun 29–30Quantus Insights947 LV45.244.1D+1D+0.9
moved 0.2 toward R
0.0%
source
Jun 15–22Data for ProgressDEM.-ALIGNED
for Working Families Party PAC
709 LV4746D+1R+2.5
moved 3.5 toward R
0.0%
source
Jun 11–14Zenith ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED
for Common Defense
602 LV4542D+3R+0.6
moved 3.6 toward R
0.0%
source
Jun 11–13Mitchell Research & Communications
for MIRS News Service
827 LV4742D+5D+5.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.0%
source
Jun 2–4Tulchin ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED
for Fighting for Michigan PAC
500 LV4641D+5D+1.3
moved 3.7 toward R
0.0%
source
May 20–23TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED
for League of American Workers
1,163 LV43.442.1D+1D+5.1
moved 3.8 toward D
0.0%
source
May 1–7Mitchell Research & Communications
for MIRS News Service
607 LV4142R+1R+0.9
moved 0.1 toward D
0.0%
source
Apr 28 – May 1Glengariff Group
for Detroit Regional Chamber
600 LV39.844.7R+5R+4.9
0.0%
source
Jan 24–25Emerson College
for Nexstar
1,000 LV42.542.8EvenR+0.5
moved 0.2 toward R
0.0%
source
Jan 2–6Glengariff Group
for Detroit News | WDIV-TV
600 LV41.648R+6R+6.4
0.0%
source
Nov 18–21 ’25Mitchell Research & Communications
for MIRS News Service
616 LV3841R+3R+2.9
moved 0.1 toward D
0.0%
source
Oct 23–25 ’25Rosetta Stone637 LV3145R+14R+14.0
0.0%
source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

YearDemocratRepublicanResult
2024Elissa SlotkinMike RogersD+0.3
2020Gary C. PetersJohn JamesD+1.7
2018Debbie StabenowJohn JamesD+6.5
2014Gary C. PetersTerri Lynn LandD+13.3