Senate · 2026

Michigan Senate

Abdul El-Sayed (D)v.Mike Rogers (R)LEAN D

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+2.6

Nine in ten outcomes: D+11 to R+6

Chance of winning

69%

Abdul El-Sayed

Polls alone

D+2.2

31 polls from 22 pollsters; latest Sep 17. Weight in projection: 81%.

Fundamentals alone

D+4.6

Weight in projection: 19%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan lean0.0

National environmentD+3.3

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapD+0.9

Fundamentals estimateD+4.6

Input: partisan lean

D+0.1

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$5.6M D · $3.4M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 31 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	El-Sayed	Rogers	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 16–17	InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	46.6	44.7	D+2	D+1.8 moved 0.1 toward R	7.1%	source
Sep 10–14	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	803 LV	48	45	D+3	D+2.7 moved 0.3 toward R	7.4%	source
Sep 12–14	Emerson College for Nexstar	1,000 LV	48.2	45.7	D+2	D+2.4	8.1%	source
Sep 7–9	Trafalgar GroupREP.-ALIGNED	1,079 LV	46.3	44.8	D+2	D+4.6 moved 3.1 toward D	6.3%	source
Aug 31 – Sep 6	CNN	843 LV	47	44	D+3	D+2.9 moved 0.1 toward R	5.6%	source
Aug 31 – Sep 3	Glengariff Group for Detroit News \| WDIV-TV	600 LV	44.4	45.8	R+1	R+1.0 moved 0.4 toward D	5.6%	source
Aug 26–28	Abacus Data	332 LV	47	42	D+5	D+4.8 moved 0.2 toward R	5.1%	source
Aug 22–28	EPIC-MRA	600 LV	47	43	D+4	D+4.1 moved 0.1 toward D	5.5%	source
Aug 10–20	Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov	779 LV	50	45	D+5	D+4.9 moved 0.1 toward R	4.6%	source
Aug 11–17	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	800 RV	46	39	D+7	D+7.0	2.8%	source
Aug 9–11	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP	877 LV	48	47	D+1	D+0.8 moved 0.2 toward R	4.7%	source
Aug 6–10	TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers	1,215 LV	45.4	42.3	D+3	D+5.9 moved 2.8 toward D	4.5%	source
Aug 6–10	GBAODEM.-ALIGNED for Senate Majority PAC	800 LV	50	44	D+6	D+2.7 moved 3.3 toward R	4.7%	source
Aug 6–10	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,006 RV	47	51	R+4	R+3.9 moved 0.1 toward D	2.9%	source
Jul 24–31	EPIC-MRA for MIRS News Service	600 LV	43	46	R+3	R+2.9 moved 0.1 toward D	1.9%	source
Jul 28–30	SoCal ResearchREP.-ALIGNED for Red Eagle Politics	640 LV	41	42	R+1	D+2.7 moved 3.7 toward D	3.2%	source
Jul 28–29	Mitchell Research & Communications	672 LV	45	45	Even	D+0.2 moved 0.2 toward D	3.9%	source
Jul 22–24	Glengariff Group for Business Leaders for Michigan \| Michigan Education Association	600 LV	38.7	49	R+10	R+9.9 moved 0.4 toward D	1.7%	source
Jun 29–30	Quantus Insights	947 LV	45.2	44.1	D+1	D+1.4 moved 0.3 toward D	2.5%	source
Jun 25–28	Wedgewood Polls	602 LV	49	44	D+5	D+5.4 moved 0.4 toward D	2.4%	source
Jun 15–22	Data for ProgressDEM.-ALIGNED for Working Families Party PAC	709 LV	47	46	D+1	R+2.7 moved 3.7 toward R	2.5%	source
Jun 11–14	Zenith ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Common Defense	602 LV	45	42	D+3	R+0.6 moved 3.6 toward R	2.1%	source
Jun 11–13	Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News Service	827 LV	47	42	D+5	D+5.2 moved 0.2 toward D	1.1%	source
Jun 2–4	Tulchin ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Fighting for Michigan PAC	500 LV	46	41	D+5	D+1.5 moved 3.5 toward R	1.8%	source
May 20–23	TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers	1,163 LV	43.4	42.1	D+1	D+4.1 moved 2.8 toward D	0.9%	source
May 1–7	Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News Service	607 LV	41	42	R+1	R+0.8 moved 0.2 toward D	0.4%	source
Apr 28 – May 1	Glengariff Group for Detroit Regional Chamber	600 LV	39.8	44.7	R+5	R+4.5 moved 0.4 toward D	0.3%	source
Jan 24–25	Emerson College for Nexstar	1,000 LV	42.5	42.8	Even	R+0.3	0.2%	source
Jan 2–6	Glengariff Group for Detroit News \| WDIV-TV	600 LV	41.6	48	R+6	R+6.0 moved 0.4 toward D	0.0%	source
Nov 18–21 ’25	Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News Service	616 LV	38	41	R+3	R+2.8 moved 0.2 toward D	0.0%	source
Oct 23–25 ’25	Rosetta Stone	637 LV	31	45	R+14	R+14.0	0.1%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2024	Elissa Slotkin	Mike Rogers	D+0.3
2020	Gary C. Peters	John James	D+1.7
2018	Debbie Stabenow	John James	D+6.5
2014	Gary C. Peters	Terri Lynn Land	D+13.3