Pollster record · how records are scored
EPIC-MRA
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.17
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.88; 20% own record)
Average miss
5.2
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.5
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
98
38 races · 5 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 1 | 7.6 | −1.1 | R+4.3 |
| 2000 | 18 | 7.0 | +0.7 | Even |
| 2002 | 10 | 6.7 | −0.7 | R+0.3 |
| 2004 | 2 | 1.6 | −1.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2006 | 11 | 4.7 | +0.5 | R+1.1 |
| 2008 | 7 | 5.9 | −2.5 | D+1.7 |
| 2010 | 14 | 5.3 | −0.6 | D+2.7 |
| 2012 | 7 | 3.5 | −2.7 | D+2.5 |
| 2014 | 6 | 2.7 | −1.6 | D+0.9 |
| 2016 | 4 | 6.5 | +0.1 | D+0.3 |
| 2018 | 4 | 5.8 | +1.1 | R+0.2 |
| 2020 | 8 | 4.5 | −1.1 | R+0.5 |
| 2022 | 4 | 1.7 | −5.2 | D+6.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | 4.5 | +1.4 | D+0.6 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+4 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+4 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+9 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+3 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | R+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+0.3 | D+4.7 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+3 | R+1.4 | D+4.4 | D+3.6 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+11 | D+10.5 | D+0.5 | R+5.0 |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+11 | D+10.5 | D+0.5 | R+5.0 |
| Sep 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+16 | D+10.5 | D+5.5 | R+5.0 |
| Sep 13, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+11 | D+10.5 | D+0.5 | R+5.0 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+7 | D+2.8 | D+4.2 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+1.7 | D+3.3 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+9 | D+2.8 | D+6.2 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+6 | D+1.7 | D+4.3 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+6 | D+1.7 | D+4.3 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+9 | D+2.8 | D+6.2 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+4 | D+1.7 | D+2.3 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+8 | D+2.8 | D+5.2 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+7 | D+6.5 | D+0.5 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+5 | D+9.6 | R+4.6 | R+0.2 |
| Sep 25, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+23 | D+6.5 | D+16.5 | D+6.2 |
| Sep 25, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+8 | D+9.6 | R+1.6 | R+0.2 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+4 | R+0.2 | D+4.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+7 | R+0.2 | D+7.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 2, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+11 | R+0.2 | D+11.2 | D+6.2 |
| Sep 12, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+3 | R+0.2 | D+3.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 27, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+15 | D+13.3 | D+1.7 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 27, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+2 | R+4.1 | D+2.1 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+8 | R+4.1 | R+3.9 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+11 | D+13.3 | R+2.3 | R+6.4 |
| Sep 27, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+9 | D+13.3 | R+4.3 | R+6.4 |
| Sep 27, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+6 | R+4.1 | R+1.9 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 2012 President, MI | D+6 | D+9.5 | R+3.5 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MI | D+21 | D+20.8 | D+0.2 | R+9.1 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 President, MI | D+6 | D+9.5 | R+3.5 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 5, 2012 | 2012 President, MI | D+3 | D+9.5 | R+6.5 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 5, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MI | D+20 | D+20.8 | R+0.8 | R+9.1 |
| Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MI | D+11 | D+20.8 | R+9.8 | R+9.1 |
| Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 President, MI | D+10 | D+9.5 | D+0.5 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 25, 2010 | 2010 Governor, MI | R+18 | R+18.2 | D+0.2 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 20, 2010 | 2010 House, IN-7 | D+13 | D+21.1 | R+8.1 | — |
| Oct 20, 2010 | 2010 House, IN-2 | D+5 | D+1.3 | D+3.7 | — |
| Oct 20, 2010 | 2010 Senate, IN | R+18 | R+14.6 | R+3.4 | R+4.9 |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 House, MI-1 | R+2 | R+11.1 | D+9.1 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 House, MI-3 | R+9 | R+22.2 | D+13.2 | D+7.1 |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 House, MI-15 | D+17 | D+16.7 | D+0.3 | R+9.2 |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2010 House, MI-7 | D+6 | R+4.8 | D+10.8 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2010 House, MI-9 | D+5 | D+2.5 | D+2.5 | R+5.2 |
| Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 Governor, MI | R+20 | R+18.2 | R+1.8 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 2, 2010 | 2010 House, IN-7 | D+17 | D+21.1 | R+4.1 | — |
| Oct 2, 2010 | 2010 House, IN-2 | D+9 | D+1.3 | D+7.7 | — |
| Sep 30, 2010 | 2010 Senate, IN | R+18 | R+14.6 | R+3.4 | R+4.9 |
| Sep 11, 2010 | 2010 Governor, MI | R+24 | R+18.2 | R+5.8 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 27, 2008 | 2008 Senate, MI | D+18 | D+28.8 | R+10.8 | R+5.2 |
| Oct 27, 2008 | 2008 President, MI | D+12 | D+16.5 | R+4.5 | R+9.4 |
| Oct 21, 2008 | 2008 President, MI | D+14 | D+16.5 | R+2.5 | R+9.4 |
| Oct 21, 2008 | 2008 Senate, MI | D+28 | D+28.8 | R+0.8 | R+5.2 |
| Sep 21, 2008 | 2008 President, MI | D+10 | D+16.5 | R+6.5 | R+9.4 |
| Sep 16, 2008 | 2008 Senate, MI | D+28 | D+28.8 | R+0.8 | R+5.2 |
| Sep 16, 2008 | 2008 President, MI | D+1 | D+16.5 | R+15.5 | R+9.4 |
| Oct 31, 2006 | 2006 Senate, MI | D+13 | D+15.7 | R+2.7 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 31, 2006 | 2006 Governor, MI | D+9 | D+14.1 | R+5.1 | R+4.4 |
| Oct 28, 2006 | 2006 Senate, MI | D+14 | D+15.7 | R+1.7 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 28, 2006 | 2006 Governor, MI | D+10 | D+14.1 | R+4.1 | R+4.4 |