2000–2024
How this average would have done
The same averaging rules the site uses today, run on 2,300 past general elections, using only polls published by two days before each election and pollster information from earlier years. It is a backtest, not a record of calls made in real time. Before 2018 the poll archive covers only the final two months of each race. How the rules were chosen.
By cycle
Average miss of the final polling average
Mean absolute error on the margin, two days out. In parentheses: which way the polls missed on average that year.
| Cycle | Senate | Governor | House | President |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 4.7 (R+2.1; 31) | 3.0 (R+0.4; 11) | 4.6 (D+1.0; 29) | 4.1 (R+0.6; 52) |
| 2002 | 5.0 (D+1.4; 27) | 5.3 (D+3.3; 36) | 5.2 (D+1.2; 56) | — |
| 2004 | 5.0 (D+2.6; 27) | 3.1 (D+1.7; 10) | 4.8 (D+0.8; 51) | 3.0 (D+0.9; 54) |
| 2006 | 3.6 (R+2.7; 28) | 3.5 (even; 35) | 5.0 (R+0.3; 103) | — |
| 2008 | 4.1 (R+0.5; 34) | 4.1 (D+0.5; 11) | 5.0 (D+0.2; 91) | 3.6 (R+1.0; 55) |
| 2010 | 4.4 (R+0.6; 36) | 4.3 (D+1.0; 37) | 6.0 (D+1.1; 159) | — |
| 2012 | 4.3 (R+3.8; 28) | 3.3 (R+2.8; 9) | 6.5 (R+4.4; 102) | 3.9 (R+1.4; 46) |
| 2014 | 4.2 (D+3.1; 34) | 4.6 (D+3.7; 35) | 6.3 (D+3.6; 74) | — |
| 2016 | 5.5 (D+4.5; 33) | 5.3 (D+3.7; 12) | 6.1 (D+3.2; 62) | 5.5 (D+3.7; 57) |
| 2018 | 3.6 (R+0.1; 31) | 3.9 (R+0.7; 34) | 5.9 (R+0.9; 160) | — |
| 2020 | 6.6 (D+6.4; 32) | 8.0 (D+8.0; 11) | 5.9 (D+4.8; 105) | 5.1 (D+4.5; 55) |
| 2022 | 5.6 (D+2.6; 31) | 5.0 (D+2.9; 34) | 5.6 (R+0.2; 112) | — |
| 2024 | 4.9 (D+4.2; 31) | 6.8 (D+6.7; 11) | 5.3 (D+2.8; 85) | 4.8 (D+4.2; 51) |
House figures cover only districts that were polled. The last number in each cell is the count of races.
Race by race
Final averages against results
31 races · average miss 4.9 · winner called in 97%
| Race | Final average | Result | Miss (toward) | Polls | Pollsters | Winner called |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | D+5.8 | D+2.4 | D+3.4 | 95 | 40 | Yes |
| CA | D+20.2 | D+17.7 | D+2.4 | 1 | 1 | Yes |
| CA (second contest that year) | D+23.2 | D+17.7 | D+5.5 | 18 | 7 | Yes |
| CT | D+15.8 | D+18.9 | R+3.1 | 1 | 1 | Yes |
| DE | D+20.5 | D+17.1 | D+3.4 | 1 | 1 | Yes |
| FL | R+4.9 | R+12.8 | D+7.9 | 46 | 23 | Yes |
| IN | R+14.0 | R+19.9 | D+5.9 | 5 | 3 | Yes |
| MA | D+23.0 | D+19.8 | D+3.2 | 10 | 7 | Yes |
| MD | D+12.5 | D+11.8 | D+0.7 | 24 | 14 | Yes |
| ME | R+23.4 | R+23.8 | D+0.5 | 5 | 4 | Yes |
| MI | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | D+3.7 | 99 | 41 | Yes |
| MN | D+13.2 | D+15.7 | R+2.5 | 14 | 7 | Yes |
| MO | R+9.4 | R+13.7 | D+4.3 | 14 | 7 | Yes |
| MS | R+16.4 | R+25.6 | D+9.2 | 1 | 1 | Yes |
| MT | R+3.4 | R+7.1 | D+3.7 | 20 | 13 | Yes |
| ND | R+18.5 | R+32.9 | D+14.4 | 6 | 4 | Yes |
| NJ | D+18.9 | D+9.6 | D+9.2 | 7 | 6 | Yes |
| NM | D+11.2 | D+10.1 | D+1.1 | 11 | 7 | Yes |
| NV | D+6.2 | D+1.6 | D+4.6 | 59 | 24 | Yes |
| NY | D+21.1 | D+18.3 | D+2.8 | 9 | 5 | Yes |
| OH | R+0.1 | R+3.6 | D+3.5 | 35 | 22 | Yes |
| PA | D+3.3 | R+0.2 | D+3.5 | 128 | 47 | No |
| RI | D+15.4 | D+20.0 | R+4.7 | 5 | 4 | Yes |
| TN | R+22.0 | R+29.6 | D+7.7 | 10 | 4 | Yes |
| TX | R+3.6 | R+8.5 | D+4.9 | 46 | 21 | Yes |
| UT | R+30.6 | R+30.8 | D+0.1 | 5 | 3 | Yes |
| VA | D+9.7 | D+8.9 | D+0.8 | 18 | 12 | Yes |
| WA | D+16.8 | D+18.4 | R+1.7 | 7 | 4 | Yes |
| WI | D+3.0 | D+0.8 | D+2.1 | 84 | 35 | Yes |
| WV | R+11.8 | R+41.0 | D+29.2 | 1 | 1 | Yes |
| WY | R+47.2 | R+51.0 | D+3.8 | 1 | 1 | Yes |