Pollster record · how records are scored
Mitchell Research & Communications
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 1998 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.21
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.54; 20% own record)
Average miss
4.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
82
25 races · 9 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 3 | 11.6 | +5.0 | R+10.3 |
| 2000 | 7 | 6.1 | −0.2 | R+0.5 |
| 2002 | 6 | 7.1 | −0.2 | R+0.2 |
| 2004 | 3 | 3.8 | +1.4 | R+4.4 |
| 2008 | 3 | 4.1 | −3.0 | D+4.7 |
| 2012 | 2 | 5.7 | +0.4 | D+0.4 |
| 2014 | 15 | 2.7 | −1.8 | D+1.4 |
| 2016 | 11 | 6.8 | +0.8 | D+0.6 |
| 2018 | 10 | 2.7 | −1.9 | R+2.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.7 | D+0.9 |
| 2022 | 5 | 6.2 | +1.4 | R+4.1 |
| 2024 | 11 | 2.2 | −1.4 | R+2.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+2 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | Even |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+11 |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+5 |
| May 7, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+12 |
| May 7, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+1 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | R+6 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+3 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+2 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 | D+4.2 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+2 | R+1.4 | D+2.9 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | R+1 | R+1.4 | D+0.4 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | R+2 | D+0.3 | R+2.3 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+2 | R+5.5 | D+3.5 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+4 | D+2.4 | D+1.1 | D+5.0 |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | R+1 | R+1.4 | D+0.9 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+0.3 | D+4.2 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | R+1 | R+1.4 | D+0.9 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+0.3 | D+4.7 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 11, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+1 | R+1.4 | D+1.9 | D+3.7 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+5 | D+2.8 | D+2.2 | D+0.2 |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+2 | D+10.5 | R+8.5 | R+4.0 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 House, MI-7 | R+1 | D+5.4 | R+6.3 | D+6.4 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+2 | D+10.5 | R+8.5 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 2022 House, MI-7 | D+11 | D+5.4 | D+5.6 | D+6.4 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+7 | D+2.8 | D+4.3 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+1.7 | D+3.7 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+10 | D+1.7 | D+7.9 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+10 | D+2.8 | D+7.6 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+6 | D+1.7 | D+4.3 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+10 | D+2.8 | D+7.2 | D+4.4 |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+3 | D+6.5 | R+3.5 | D+6.7 |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+8 | D+9.6 | R+1.8 | R+0.5 |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+7 | D+6.5 | D+0.5 | D+6.7 |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+14 | D+9.6 | D+4.4 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+6 | D+6.5 | R+0.5 | D+6.7 |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+5 | D+9.6 | R+4.6 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MIR-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+9.6 | R+2.1 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+6.5 | D+2.3 | D+6.7 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+10 | D+9.6 | D+0.4 | R+0.5 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+13 | D+6.5 | D+6.5 | D+6.7 |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+6 | R+0.2 | D+6.2 | D+6.2 |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+5 | R+0.2 | D+5.2 | D+6.2 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+3 | R+0.2 | D+3.2 | D+6.2 |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+3 | R+0.2 | D+3.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 31, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+7 | R+0.2 | D+7.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+6 | R+0.2 | D+6.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+6 | R+0.2 | D+6.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+8 | R+0.2 | D+8.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+13 | R+0.2 | D+13.2 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+10 | R+0.2 | D+10.2 | D+6.2 |
| Sep 27, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+5 | R+0.2 | D+5.2 | D+6.2 |
| Nov 2, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+12 | D+13.3 | R+1.3 | R+6.3 |
| Nov 2, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | Even | R+4.1 | D+4.1 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 27, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+14 | D+13.3 | D+0.8 | R+6.3 |
| Oct 27, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+5 | R+4.1 | R+0.8 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+2 | R+4.1 | D+1.8 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+14 | D+13.3 | D+0.3 | R+6.3 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | 2014 House, MI-11 | R+12 | R+15.4 | D+3.4 | — |
| Oct 12, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+3 | R+4.1 | D+1.1 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 12, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+11 | D+13.3 | R+2.3 | R+6.3 |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+1 | R+4.1 | D+3.1 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+13.3 | R+8.3 | R+6.3 |
| Sep 29, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+13 | D+13.3 | R+0.3 | R+6.3 |
| Sep 29, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+4 | R+4.1 | D+0.1 | D+1.4 |
| Sep 14, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+2 | D+13.3 | R+11.3 | R+6.3 |
| Sep 14, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+5 | R+4.1 | R+0.9 | D+1.4 |
| Nov 4, 2012 | 2012 President, MI | D+5 | D+9.5 | R+4.5 | R+3.3 |
| Nov 4, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MI | D+14 | D+20.8 | R+6.8 | R+8.8 |