Pollster record · how records are scored
Data for Progress
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2019 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.04
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.07; 45% own record)
Average miss
4.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.7
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
155
79 races · 10 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1 | 2.3 | −1.0 | R+2.9 |
| 2020 | 79 | 5.9 | +0.7 | R+0.6 |
| 2021 | 1 | 6.9 | +3.4 | D+3.6 |
| 2022 | 62 | 3.7 | −0.8 | R+2.3 |
| 2023 | 1 | 3.1 | −0.2 | R+4.5 |
| 2024 | 11 | 4.6 | +1.0 | D+0.8 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Senate MS | Scott Colom v. Cindy Hyde-Smith | R+6 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | D+6 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | MI-7 | William Lawrence v. Tom Barrett | D+2 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+1 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+7 | |
| May 18, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | D+1 |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | R+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+4 | R+0.2 | D+4.2 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+2 | R+1.7 | D+3.7 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | D+1 | R+2.2 | D+3.2 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NV | D+7 | D+1.6 | D+5.4 | D+5.9 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, NV | D+2 | R+3.1 | D+5.1 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+5 | D+2.4 | D+2.6 | D+5.0 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+1 | R+5.5 | D+4.5 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 3, 2024 | 2024 President | D+3 | R+1.5 | D+4.5 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 President | D+5 | R+1.5 | D+6.5 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | D+3 | R+2.7 | D+5.7 | D+3.3 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2024 President | D+4 | R+1.5 | D+5.5 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2023 Governor, KY | D+2 | D+5.1 | R+3.1 | D+1.5 |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+2 | D+2.8 | R+0.8 | D+0.4 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NV | R+2 | R+1.5 | R+0.5 | D+0.6 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+9 | R+7.5 | R+1.5 | D+0.5 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OR | D+14 | D+14.9 | R+0.9 | D+2.7 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NC | R+6 | R+3.2 | R+2.8 | D+0.6 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | R+1 | D+1.0 | R+2.0 | D+0.3 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+12 | R+16.4 | D+4.4 | D+10.0 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | R+1 | D+4.9 | R+5.9 | R+0.8 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NV | R+2 | D+0.8 | R+2.8 | R+0.6 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OR | D+4 | D+3.4 | D+0.6 | R+3.3 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+15 | R+19.4 | D+4.4 | D+10.2 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | D+3.0 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | R+4 | D+0.7 | R+4.7 | R+1.5 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, CO | D+7 | D+14.6 | R+7.6 | R+4.9 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CO | D+12 | D+19.4 | R+7.3 | R+4.2 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NH | R+18 | R+15.5 | R+2.5 | Even |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OH | R+10 | R+6.1 | R+3.9 | D+4.5 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NH | D+3 | D+9.1 | R+6.1 | R+3.6 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | R+2 | D+3.4 | R+5.4 | R+3.0 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OH | R+24 | R+25.0 | D+1.0 | D+6.2 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | R+6 | R+1.0 | R+5.0 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NY | D+12 | D+7.3 | D+4.7 | D+1.1 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NY | D+17 | D+14.0 | D+3.0 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 House, VT-1 | D+25 | D+34.8 | R+9.8 | D+3.2 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, VT | R+41 | R+47.0 | D+6.0 | D+30.0 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Senate, VT | D+31 | D+40.4 | R+9.4 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+12 | R+19.4 | D+7.4 | D+10.2 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+7 | R+16.4 | D+9.4 | D+10.0 |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | R+1 | D+3.4 | R+4.4 | R+3.0 |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | R+5 | R+1.0 | R+4.0 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NH | D+6 | D+9.1 | R+3.1 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NV | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+0.5 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NV | R+1 | D+0.8 | R+1.8 | R+0.6 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NH | R+13 | R+15.5 | D+2.5 | Even |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OR | R+1 | D+3.4 | R+4.4 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+3 | R+2.6 | R+0.4 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OR | D+11 | D+14.9 | R+3.9 | D+2.7 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | R+4 | D+0.7 | R+4.7 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+10 | R+7.5 | R+2.5 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+1 | D+1.0 | Even | D+0.3 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | Even | D+4.9 | R+4.9 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OH | R+3 | R+6.1 | D+3.1 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OH | R+19 | R+25.0 | D+6.0 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, CO | D+9 | D+14.6 | R+5.6 | R+4.9 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CO | D+17 | D+19.4 | R+2.4 | R+4.2 |
| Oct 3, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+2 | R+2.6 | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |