Pollster record · how records are scored
Glengariff Group
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2006 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.09
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.71; 14% own record)
Average miss
4.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
39
20 races · 11 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2 | 2.8 | −7.2 | R+0.1 |
| 2010 | 3 | 1.5 | −4.6 | D+2.8 |
| 2012 | 7 | 6.1 | −0.1 | D+3.3 |
| 2014 | 4 | 2.7 | −1.6 | D+0.5 |
| 2016 | 2 | 9.5 | +3.1 | D+3.6 |
| 2018 | 6 | 7.9 | +3.2 | D+5.3 |
| 2020 | 6 | 4.3 | −1.6 | R+0.7 |
| 2022 | 4 | 4.1 | −2.0 | D+0.8 |
| 2024 | 5 | 3.5 | −0.7 | R+0.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+4 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+1 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+5 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+10 |
| May 1, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+5 |
| May 1, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+5 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | R+1 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | R+2 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+6 |
| May 8, 2025 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+1 |
| May 8, 2025 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+6 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+4 | D+0.3 | D+3.4 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+3 | R+1.4 | D+4.4 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 House, MI-10 | R+4 | R+6.1 | D+2.3 | D+2.2 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+4 | D+0.3 | D+3.2 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+3 | R+1.4 | D+4.0 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+9 | D+10.5 | R+1.9 | R+5.1 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 House, MI-7 | D+6 | D+5.4 | D+0.3 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 House, MI-10 | R+8 | R+0.5 | R+7.4 | R+1.4 |
| Sep 29, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+17 | D+10.5 | D+6.8 | R+5.1 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+10 | D+1.7 | D+7.9 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+8 | D+2.8 | D+4.9 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 3, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+1.7 | D+3.7 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 3, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+9 | D+2.8 | D+6.0 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+3 | D+1.7 | D+1.4 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+5 | D+2.8 | D+1.9 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+13 | D+9.6 | D+2.9 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+17 | D+6.5 | D+10.2 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+18 | D+6.5 | D+11.5 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+12 | D+9.6 | D+2.0 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MI | D+14 | D+9.6 | D+4.1 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MI | D+23 | D+6.5 | D+16.4 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 10, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+12 | R+0.2 | D+11.8 | D+6.0 |
| Sep 27, 2016 | 2016 President, MI | D+7 | R+0.2 | D+7.2 | D+6.0 |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+15 | D+13.3 | D+1.8 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+5 | R+4.1 | R+0.9 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 3, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MI | R+8 | R+4.1 | R+3.9 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 3, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MI | D+9 | D+13.3 | R+4.3 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MI | D+15 | D+20.8 | R+5.9 | R+8.8 |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 2012 President, MI | D+3 | D+9.5 | R+6.8 | R+3.5 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 House, MI-3 | D+1 | R+8.4 | D+9.4 | R+0.6 |
| Oct 7, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MI | D+13 | D+20.8 | R+8.2 | R+8.8 |
| Oct 7, 2012 | 2012 President, MI | D+7 | D+9.5 | R+2.8 | R+3.5 |
| Sep 16, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MI | D+16 | D+20.8 | R+4.9 | R+8.8 |
| Sep 16, 2012 | 2012 President, MI | D+14 | D+9.5 | D+4.7 | R+3.5 |
| Oct 25, 2010 | 2010 Governor, MI | R+18 | R+18.2 | D+0.2 | D+1.2 |
| Sep 15, 2010 | 2010 House, MI-15 | D+19 | D+16.7 | D+2.3 | R+10.2 |
| Sep 7, 2010 | 2010 Governor, MI | R+20 | R+18.2 | R+2.1 | D+1.2 |
| Oct 14, 2006 | 2006 Governor, IL | D+9 | D+10.5 | R+1.5 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 7, 2006 | 2006 House, MI-7 | R+8 | R+4.0 | R+4.0 | R+9.1 |