House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research

Method: live phone · scored polls from 2022 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.25
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.47; 18% own record)
Average miss
2.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
26
26 races · 17 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2022142.8−2.1R+0.8
2024123.0−1.0R+1.4
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 11, 2026Governor AKJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins v. Bernadette WilsonD+10
Sep 11, 2026Senate AKMary Peltola v. Dan SullivanD+6
Sep 1, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+3
Sep 1, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+4
Aug 11, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+5
Aug 11, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+1
Jul 28, 2026Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+8
Jul 16, 2026Governor GAKeisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick JacksonD+2
Jul 16, 2026Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+9
Jun 16, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+3
Jun 16, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+3
Jul 20, 2025Generic ballotD+3
Apr 1, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Feb 1, 2025Generic ballotEven
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 15, 20242024 Senate, NVD+5D+1.6D+3.4D+6.0
Oct 15, 20242024 President, NVR+2R+3.1D+1.6D+3.7
Oct 8, 20242024 Senate, MID+3D+0.3D+2.7D+4.2
Oct 8, 20242024 President, MIR+1R+1.4D+0.9D+3.7
Oct 1, 20242024 Senate, AZD+7D+2.4D+4.6D+4.9
Oct 1, 20242024 President, AZR+2R+5.5D+3.5D+4.7
Sep 24, 20242024 Senate, PAD+4R+0.2D+4.2D+4.7
Sep 24, 20242024 President, PAD+3R+1.7D+4.2D+2.5
Sep 17, 20242024 Governor, NCD+10D+14.8R+4.8R+0.7
Sep 17, 20242024 President, NCR+3R+3.2D+0.7D+2.6
Sep 14, 20242024 Senate, WID+3D+0.8D+2.2D+3.0
Sep 14, 20242024 President, WID+2R+0.9D+2.9D+2.9
Nov 17, 20222022 Senate, GAD+4D+2.8D+1.2D+0.3
Oct 26, 20222022 Generic ballotR+2R+2.6D+0.6D+3.0
Oct 12, 20222022 Senate, PAD+2D+4.9R+2.9R+2.6
Oct 12, 20222022 Governor, PAD+11D+14.8R+3.8R+3.9
Oct 6, 20222022 Senate, NHD+7D+9.1R+2.1R+3.7
Oct 6, 20222022 House, NH-2D+10D+11.7R+1.7R+2.4
Oct 6, 20222022 House, NH-1D+1D+8.1R+7.1R+3.7
Oct 6, 20222022 Governor, NHR+14R+15.5D+1.5R+0.1
Sep 25, 20222022 Governor, WIR+3D+3.4R+6.4R+2.9
Sep 25, 20222022 Senate, WIR+5R+1.0R+4.0R+1.7
Sep 15, 20222022 Senate, AZD+8D+4.9D+2.6R+1.0
Sep 15, 20222022 Governor, AZD+1D+0.7D+0.3R+1.7
Sep 11, 20222022 Governor, AKR+23R+26.1D+3.1D+7.3
Sep 11, 20222022 House, AK-1D+12D+9.9D+2.1D+8.2