House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Big Data Poll

Method not recorded · scored polls from 2024 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.02
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −2.30; 1% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
0.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
1
1 races · 30 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
202410.8−2.3R+2.9
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 15, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Jul 29, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Jun 28, 2026Generic ballotD+9
May 27, 2026Generic ballotD+13
Apr 28, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Mar 24, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Feb 18, 2026Generic ballotD+9
Jan 24, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Dec 28, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Dec 12, 2025Generic ballotD+3
Dec 1, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Oct 28, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Jul 14, 2025Generic ballotD+1
May 5, 2025Generic ballotR+2
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 29, 20242024 PresidentR+1R+1.5D+0.8D+3.8