Pollster record · how records are scored
CNN
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2018 to 2024
Versus the field
+0.14
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.54; 32% own record)
Average miss
4.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.9
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
70
51 races · 21 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | 5.7 | +1.1 | D+3.9 |
| 2020 | 17 | 7.0 | +1.9 | D+2.3 |
| 2022 | 12 | 1.8 | −1.9 | D+1.2 |
| 2024 | 19 | 3.7 | +0.4 | D+0.5 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Governor ME | Hannah Pingree v. Bobby Charles | D+13 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+9 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Senate ME | Troy Jackson v. Susan Collins | D+3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+3 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| May 4, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+6 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+4 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+2 | D+0.8 | D+1.2 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+6 | R+0.9 | D+6.9 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | R+1 | R+2.2 | D+1.2 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+5 | R+1.4 | D+6.4 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | D+1 | R+3.2 | D+4.2 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+16 | D+14.8 | D+1.2 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+3 | R+0.2 | D+3.2 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+6 | D+0.3 | D+5.7 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | D+1 | R+5.5 | D+6.5 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+8 | D+2.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.9 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2024 President, NV | R+1 | R+3.1 | D+2.1 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NV | D+9 | D+1.6 | D+7.4 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | R+3 | R+2.7 | R+0.3 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 President | Even | R+1.5 | D+1.5 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 2024 House, NE-2 | D+6 | R+1.9 | D+7.9 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+17 | D+14.8 | D+2.2 | R+1.0 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | Even | R+3.2 | D+3.2 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | 2024 President | D+1 | R+1.5 | D+2.5 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+4 | D+2.8 | D+1.2 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+6 | D+10.5 | R+4.5 | R+4.4 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | D+2 | D+3.4 | R+1.4 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+15 | D+14.8 | D+0.2 | R+4.1 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | R+1 | R+1.0 | Even | R+2.0 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+6 | D+4.9 | D+1.1 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 5, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | D+3 | R+2.6 | D+5.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+6 | D+4.9 | D+1.1 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NV | R+2 | D+0.8 | R+2.8 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NV | R+2 | R+1.5 | R+0.5 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | D+3 | D+0.7 | D+2.3 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+8 | D+0.6 | D+7.4 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+3 | R+1.7 | D+4.7 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+12 | D+1.7 | D+10.3 | D+5.3 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+7 | D+2.3 | D+4.7 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+6 | R+1.3 | D+7.3 | D+2.7 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+10 | D+4.5 | D+5.5 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | D+4 | D+0.3 | D+3.7 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+12 | D+2.8 | D+9.2 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+12 | D+3.0 | D+9.0 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 President | D+12 | D+4.4 | D+7.6 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+4 | R+3.4 | D+7.4 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+10 | D+1.2 | D+8.8 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President | D+16 | D+4.4 | D+11.6 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 13, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+3 | R+1.3 | D+4.3 | D+2.7 |
| Sep 13, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+1 | R+1.7 | D+2.7 | D+6.2 |
| Sep 13, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+9 | D+4.5 | D+4.5 | D+5.7 |
| Sep 13, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+10 | D+0.6 | D+9.4 | D+6.2 |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+13 | D+8.5 | D+4.5 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AZ | R+7 | R+14.2 | D+7.2 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+1 | R+0.4 | D+1.4 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Senate, AZ | D+4 | D+2.3 | D+1.7 | R+1.4 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+2 | R+0.1 | D+2.1 | D+1.3 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NV | D+3 | D+5.0 | R+2.0 | R+5.6 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TN | R+4 | R+10.8 | D+6.8 | D+6.6 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NV | D+1 | D+4.1 | R+3.1 | R+4.2 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Governor, TN | R+10 | R+21.0 | D+11.0 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+12 | R+0.4 | D+12.4 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+5 | R+0.1 | D+5.1 | D+1.3 |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TX | R+7 | R+2.6 | R+4.4 | R+2.8 |