House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Trafalgar Group

Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2016 to 2025 · 100% of scored polls were for a party or campaign

Versus the field
−0.21
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.38; 50% own record)
Average miss
3.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
200
91 races · 14 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2016143.4−1.8R+0.7
201745.5−0.1D+2.2
2018195.0+1.5D+1.5
201925.1−0.9R+5.9
2020502.3−2.4R+0.8
202130.8−2.8D+0.6
2022625.4+1.4R+0.1
2024421.9−1.6D+1.6
2025410.8+4.3R+0.6
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 18, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+2
Sep 17, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+1
Sep 16, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+4
Sep 12, 2026Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+7
Sep 10, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+6
Sep 9, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+2
Apr 27, 2025Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+5
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 2, 20252025-GOV-VA R-ALIGNEDD+7D+15.4R+8.9R+6.4
Oct 28, 20252025-GOV-VA R-ALIGNEDD+4D+15.4R+11.4R+6.4
Oct 10, 20252025-GOV-VA R-ALIGNEDD+3D+15.4R+12.8R+6.4
Oct 1, 20252025-GOV-VA R-ALIGNEDD+5D+15.4R+10.2R+6.4
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, OHR-ALIGNEDR+1R+3.6D+2.8D+3.8
Nov 4, 20242024 President, OHR-ALIGNEDR+7R+11.2D+4.3D+3.9
Nov 3, 20242024 Senate, MIR-ALIGNEDEvenD+0.3R+0.4D+4.2
Nov 3, 20242024 Senate, PAR-ALIGNEDR+2R+0.2R+1.3D+4.7
Nov 3, 20242024 President, AZR-ALIGNEDR+2R+5.5D+3.4D+4.6
Nov 3, 20242024 President, WIR-ALIGNEDD+1R+0.9D+2.1D+2.9
Nov 3, 20242024 Senate, WIR-ALIGNEDR+1D+0.8R+1.3D+2.9
Nov 3, 20242024 President, PAR-ALIGNEDR+2R+1.7EvenD+2.5
Nov 3, 20242024 President, MIR-ALIGNEDEvenR+1.4D+1.0D+3.7
Nov 3, 20242024 Senate, AZR-ALIGNEDD+1D+2.4R+1.9D+4.9
Oct 28, 20242024 President, NCR-ALIGNEDR+3R+3.2EvenD+2.5
Oct 28, 20242024 President, OHR-ALIGNEDR+6R+11.2D+5.1D+3.9
Oct 28, 20242024 President, NVR-ALIGNEDEvenR+3.1D+3.3D+3.5
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, NVR-ALIGNEDD+2D+1.6D+0.3D+5.8
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, OHR-ALIGNEDD+1R+3.6D+4.4D+3.8
Oct 26, 20242024 President, AZR-ALIGNEDR+2R+5.5D+3.4D+4.6
Oct 26, 20242024 Senate, AZR-ALIGNEDD+4D+2.4D+1.4D+4.9
Oct 26, 20242024 President, GAR-ALIGNEDR+2R+2.2R+0.2D+1.5
Oct 20, 20242024 Senate, MIR-ALIGNEDD+1D+0.3D+1.1D+4.2
Oct 20, 20242024 President, MIR-ALIGNEDR+2R+1.4R+0.4D+3.7
Oct 20, 20242024 President, WIR-ALIGNEDEvenR+0.9D+0.7D+2.9
Oct 20, 20242024 Senate, WIR-ALIGNEDEvenD+0.8R+1.2D+2.9
Oct 19, 20242024 President, PAR-ALIGNEDR+3R+1.7R+1.3D+2.5
Oct 19, 20242024 Senate, PAR-ALIGNEDEvenR+0.2R+0.2D+4.7
Oct 13, 20242024 Senate, NVR-ALIGNEDD+4D+1.6D+2.8D+5.8
Oct 13, 20242024 President, NCR-ALIGNEDR+2R+3.2D+1.3D+2.5
Oct 13, 20242024 President, AZR-ALIGNEDR+2R+5.5D+4.0D+4.6
Oct 13, 20242024 Senate, AZR-ALIGNEDD+4D+2.4D+1.3D+4.9
Oct 13, 20242024 President, NVR-ALIGNEDD+1R+3.1D+3.9D+3.5
Oct 8, 20242024 President, GAR-ALIGNEDR+1R+2.2D+0.9D+1.5
Sep 30, 20242024 Senate, MIR-ALIGNEDEvenD+0.3D+0.1D+4.2
Sep 30, 20242024 President, MIR-ALIGNEDR+2R+1.4R+0.8D+3.7
Sep 30, 20242024 Senate, WIR-ALIGNEDD+2D+0.8D+1.5D+2.9
Sep 30, 20242024 President, WIR-ALIGNEDR+1R+0.9R+0.2D+2.9
Sep 29, 20242024 Senate, PAR-ALIGNEDD+2R+0.2D+2.0D+4.7
Sep 29, 20242024 President, PAR-ALIGNEDR+2R+1.7R+0.5D+2.5
Sep 15, 20242024 President, GAR-ALIGNEDR+2R+2.2D+0.5D+1.5
Sep 13, 20242024 President, NVR-ALIGNEDD+2R+3.1D+4.9D+3.5
Sep 13, 20242024 Senate, NVR-ALIGNEDD+8D+1.6D+6.2D+5.8
Sep 12, 20242024 President, NCR-ALIGNEDR+2R+3.2D+0.8D+2.5
Sep 12, 20242024 Senate, AZR-ALIGNEDD+4D+2.4D+1.8D+4.9
Sep 12, 20242024 President, AZR-ALIGNEDR+2R+5.5D+3.9D+4.6
Dec 5, 20222022 Senate, GAR-ALIGNEDD+4D+2.8D+0.9Even
Nov 7, 20222022 Governor, NVR-ALIGNEDR+3R+1.5R+1.0D+0.6
Nov 7, 20222022 Senate, AZR-ALIGNEDR+2D+4.9R+6.4R+0.9
Nov 7, 20222022 Senate, NVR-ALIGNEDR+5D+0.8R+5.7R+0.6
Nov 7, 20222022 Governor, MIR-ALIGNEDEvenD+10.5R+10.8R+4.4
Nov 7, 20222022 Governor, AZR-ALIGNEDR+4D+0.7R+4.3R+1.7
Nov 6, 20222022 Governor, GAR-ALIGNEDR+9R+7.5R+1.4D+0.3
Nov 6, 20222022 Senate, GAR-ALIGNEDR+3D+1.0R+4.2D+0.2
Nov 6, 20222022 Senate, NCR-ALIGNEDR+6R+3.2R+3.2D+0.2
Nov 6, 20222022 Generic ballotR-ALIGNEDR+6R+2.6R+3.1D+2.9
Nov 5, 20222022 Governor, OHR-ALIGNEDR+25R+25.0D+0.5D+6.0
Nov 5, 20222022 Senate, OHR-ALIGNEDR+10R+6.1R+4.3D+4.2
Nov 4, 20222022 Governor, WIR-ALIGNEDR+2D+3.4R+5.0R+3.3
Nov 4, 20222022 Senate, WIR-ALIGNEDR+3R+1.0R+1.7R+2.1