House Effects
Sunday, October 11, 202623 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Emerson College

Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2013 to 2025

Versus the field
−0.58
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.78; 69% own record)
Average miss
4.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+1.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
457
259 races · 74 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
201341.8−2.3R+2.5
2014810.3+3.8R+5.9
2016835.0−0.3R+2.0
201796.5+1.6R+3.7
2018875.0−0.3R+0.3
2020504.3−1.1R+1.3
202153.3−1.4R+1.2
2022873.8−1.3R+1.8
202328.6+5.8D+2.3
20241183.3−0.9R+1.0
202549.0+0.9R+1.1
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Oct 6, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+2
Oct 6, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+4
Oct 5, 2026Governor NYKathy Hochul v. Bruce BlakemanD+12
Sep 29, 2026NY-17Cait Conley v. Mike LawlerD+2
Sep 22, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Sep 16, 2026Senate KSAdam Hamilton v. Roger MarshallD+1
Sep 16, 2026Governor KSCindy Holscher v. Ty MastersonR+7
Sep 15, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Sep 14, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+1
Sep 14, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+2
Sep 14, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+3
Sep 14, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+7
Sep 8, 2026Governor NVAaron Ford v. Joe LombardoD+2
Sep 1, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+4
Sep 1, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+3
Aug 22, 2026Governor RIHelena Foulkes v. Aaron GuckianD+27
Aug 17, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Aug 10, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+3
Aug 10, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonR+1
Aug 4, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+3
Aug 4, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+6
Jul 20, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Jul 10, 2026WA-3Marie Gluesenkamp Perez v. John BraunR+1
Jun 8, 2026Generic ballotD+11
May 25, 2026Generic ballotD+9
Apr 26, 2026Generic ballotD+10
Mar 31, 2026Senate FLAngie Nixon v. Ashley MoodyR+11
Mar 31, 2026Governor FLDavid Jolly v. Byron DonaldsR+5
Mar 23, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+2
Mar 17, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Mar 2, 2026Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+4
Feb 22, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Feb 8, 2026Governor MNAmy Klobuchar v. Lisa DemuthD+13
Feb 8, 2026Senate MNPeggy Flanagan v. Michele TafoyaD+7
Jan 25, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersEven
Jan 19, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Jan 12, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+8
Jan 12, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonEven
Dec 15, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Dec 8, 2025Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+1
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 31, 20252025-GOV-VA D+11D+15.4R+4.2R+6.5
Oct 28, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+2D+14.4R+12.4R+9.3
Sep 29, 20252025-GOV-VA D+10D+15.4R+5.5R+6.5
Sep 23, 20252025-GOV-NJ EvenD+14.4R+14.0R+9.3
Nov 2, 20242024 President, GAR+1R+2.2D+1.7D+1.6
Nov 2, 20242024 President, MID+2R+1.4D+3.0D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, MID+4D+0.3D+3.4D+4.2
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, AZD+5D+2.4D+2.5D+4.9
Nov 2, 20242024 President, WIEvenR+0.9D+0.6D+3.0
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, NVD+6D+1.6D+4.2D+5.9
Nov 2, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.7D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 Governor, NCD+12D+14.8R+3.3R+0.9
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, OHR+4R+3.6R+0.4D+4.2
Nov 2, 20242024 President, PAR+1R+1.7D+1.0D+2.6
Nov 2, 20242024 President, AZR+2R+5.5D+3.4D+4.7
Nov 2, 20242024 President, OHR+11R+11.2EvenD+4.5
Nov 2, 20242024 Generic ballotD+1R+2.7D+3.8D+3.4
Nov 2, 20242024 President, IAR+9R+13.2D+4.1D+9.6
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, WID+5D+0.8D+4.3D+3.0
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NVEvenR+3.1D+3.0D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, PAEvenR+0.2D+0.4D+4.8
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NCEvenR+3.2D+2.8D+2.6
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, NVD+4D+1.6D+2.1D+5.9
Oct 31, 20242024 President, NVEvenR+3.1D+3.4D+3.7
Oct 27, 20242024 President, MIR+1R+1.4D+0.9D+3.7
Oct 27, 20242024 Senate, MID+2D+0.3D+2.1D+4.2
Oct 26, 20242024 House, MI-7R+3R+3.7D+1.2D+3.9
Oct 26, 20242024 House, NY-17R+5R+6.3D+1.7R+0.1
Oct 26, 20242024 House, CA-22D+2R+6.8D+8.5D+10.3
Oct 26, 20242024 House, CO-8D+2R+0.7D+2.4D+3.7
Oct 26, 20242024 House, NY-18D+10D+14.3R+4.6—
Oct 26, 20242024 President, MAD+23D+25.2R+2.2D+3.9
Oct 26, 20242024 Senate, MAD+20D+19.8D+0.6D+3.9
Oct 26, 20242024 House, CT-5D+4D+6.8R+3.0—
Oct 25, 20242024 President, MTR+19R+19.9D+0.9D+2.1
Oct 25, 20242024 Senate, MTR+3R+7.1D+4.6D+1.8
Oct 24, 20242024 Generic ballotD+1R+2.7D+3.5D+3.4
Oct 24, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.7
Oct 23, 20242024 Governor, NHR+4R+9.3D+5.4D+9.7
Oct 23, 20242024 President, NHD+4D+2.8D+0.9D+6.2
Oct 23, 20242024 Senate, MOR+10R+13.7D+3.6D+4.0
Oct 22, 20242024 Senate, WID+1D+0.8R+0.1D+3.0
Oct 22, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.2D+2.6
Oct 22, 20242024 Governor, NCD+13D+14.8R+2.3R+0.9
Oct 22, 20242024 President, SDR+26R+29.2D+3.7D+3.2
Oct 22, 20242024 President, WIR+1R+0.9D+0.2D+3.0
Oct 22, 20242024 Senate, PAD+1R+0.2D+1.6D+4.8
Oct 22, 20242024 House, SD-1R+36R+44.1D+8.2D+7.1
Oct 22, 20242024 President, PAR+2R+1.7EvenD+2.6
Oct 21, 20242024 Senate, MDD+13D+11.8D+1.4D+1.0
Oct 21, 20242024 Senate, TXR+2R+8.5D+7.0D+4.5
Oct 21, 20242024 President, MDD+30D+28.5D+1.1R+1.5
Oct 21, 20242024 President, TXR+7R+13.7D+6.5D+7.1
Oct 20, 20242024 Senate, FLR+6R+12.8D+7.2D+8.0
Oct 20, 20242024 President, FLR+8R+13.1D+5.4D+7.3
Oct 16, 20242024 Generic ballotD+2R+2.7D+5.0D+3.4
Oct 16, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.8D+3.7
Oct 14, 20242024 President, CAD+24D+20.1D+4.3D+6.1
Oct 14, 20242024 Senate, CAD+24D+17.7D+5.8D+5.0
Oct 11, 20242024 House, CT-5D+3D+6.8R+3.8—