House Effects
Sunday, November 1, 20262 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Emerson College

Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2013 to 2025

Versus the field
−0.58
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.78; 69% own record)
Average miss
4.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+1.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
457
259 races · 98 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
201341.8−2.3R+2.5
2014810.3+3.8R+5.9
2016835.0−0.3R+2.0
201796.5+1.6R+3.7
2018875.0−0.3R+0.3
2020504.3−1.1R+1.3
202153.3−1.4R+1.2
2022873.8−1.3R+1.8
202328.6+5.8D+2.3
20241183.3−0.9R+1.0
202549.0+0.9R+1.1
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Oct 28, 2026Governor KSCindy Holscher v. Ty MastersonR+5
Oct 28, 2026Senate KSAdam Hamilton v. Roger MarshallD+4
Oct 26, 2026Generic ballotD+10
Oct 20, 2026Governor SDDan Ahlers v. Larry RhodenR+19
Oct 20, 2026Senate SDBrian Bengs v. Mike RoundsR+8
Oct 19, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+4
Oct 19, 2026Governor CAXavier Becerra v. Steve HiltonD+28
Oct 19, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+2
Oct 14, 2026NC-11Jamie Ager v. Jennifer BalkcomD+13
Oct 14, 2026MT-1Sam Forstag v. Aaron FlintD+4
Oct 14, 2026MO-2Fred Wellman v. Ann WagnerD+5
Oct 14, 2026MI-7William Lawrence v. Tom BarrettD+8
Oct 14, 2026FL-14Kathy Castor v. Mike BeltranD+5
Oct 14, 2026AZ-2Jonathan Nez v. Eli CraneD+2
Oct 14, 2026AR-2Chris Jones v. French HillR+4
Oct 14, 2026PA-8Paige Cognetti v. Rob BresnahanD+4
Oct 14, 2026TX-35Johnny Garcia v. Carlos De La CruzD+2
Oct 14, 2026IA-2Lindsay James v. Joe MitchellD+3
Oct 12, 2026Governor CTNed Lamont v. Ryan FazioD+13
Oct 11, 2026Senate RIJack Reed v. Raymond McKayD+34
Oct 11, 2026RI-1Gabe Amo v. Kellie KeenanD+28
Oct 11, 2026RI-2Seth Magaziner v. Vic MellorD+16
Oct 11, 2026Governor RIHelena Foulkes v. Aaron GuckianD+35
Oct 6, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+4
Oct 6, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+2
Oct 5, 2026Governor NYKathy Hochul v. Bruce BlakemanD+12
Sep 29, 2026NY-17Cait Conley v. Mike LawlerD+2
Sep 22, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Sep 16, 2026Governor KSCindy Holscher v. Ty MastersonR+7
Sep 16, 2026Senate KSAdam Hamilton v. Roger MarshallD+1
Sep 15, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Sep 14, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+3
Sep 14, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+7
Sep 14, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+1
Sep 14, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+2
Sep 8, 2026Governor NVAaron Ford v. Joe LombardoD+2
Sep 1, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+4
Sep 1, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+3
Aug 22, 2026Governor RIHelena Foulkes v. Aaron GuckianD+27
Aug 17, 2026Generic ballotD+8
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 31, 20252025-GOV-VA D+11D+15.4R+4.2R+6.5
Oct 28, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+2D+14.4R+12.4R+9.3
Sep 29, 20252025-GOV-VA D+10D+15.4R+5.5R+6.5
Sep 23, 20252025-GOV-NJ EvenD+14.4R+14.0R+9.3
Nov 2, 20242024 President, GAR+1R+2.2D+1.7D+1.6
Nov 2, 20242024 President, MID+2R+1.4D+3.0D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, MID+4D+0.3D+3.4D+4.2
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, AZD+5D+2.4D+2.5D+4.9
Nov 2, 20242024 President, WIEvenR+0.9D+0.6D+3.0
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, NVD+6D+1.6D+4.2D+5.9
Nov 2, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.7D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 Governor, NCD+12D+14.8R+3.3R+0.9
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, OHR+4R+3.6R+0.4D+4.2
Nov 2, 20242024 President, PAR+1R+1.7D+1.0D+2.6
Nov 2, 20242024 President, AZR+2R+5.5D+3.4D+4.7
Nov 2, 20242024 President, OHR+11R+11.2EvenD+4.5
Nov 2, 20242024 Generic ballotD+1R+2.7D+3.8D+3.4
Nov 2, 20242024 President, IAR+9R+13.2D+4.1D+9.6
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, WID+5D+0.8D+4.3D+3.0
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NVEvenR+3.1D+3.0D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, PAEvenR+0.2D+0.4D+4.8
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NCEvenR+3.2D+2.8D+2.6
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, NVD+4D+1.6D+2.1D+5.9
Oct 31, 20242024 President, NVEvenR+3.1D+3.4D+3.7
Oct 27, 20242024 President, MIR+1R+1.4D+0.9D+3.7
Oct 27, 20242024 Senate, MID+2D+0.3D+2.1D+4.2
Oct 26, 20242024 House, MI-7R+3R+3.7D+1.2D+3.9
Oct 26, 20242024 House, NY-17R+5R+6.3D+1.7R+0.1
Oct 26, 20242024 House, CA-22D+2R+6.8D+8.5D+10.3
Oct 26, 20242024 House, CO-8D+2R+0.7D+2.4D+3.7
Oct 26, 20242024 House, NY-18D+10D+14.3R+4.6—
Oct 26, 20242024 President, MAD+23D+25.2R+2.2D+3.9
Oct 26, 20242024 Senate, MAD+20D+19.8D+0.6D+3.9
Oct 26, 20242024 House, CT-5D+4D+6.8R+3.0—
Oct 25, 20242024 President, MTR+19R+19.9D+0.9D+2.1
Oct 25, 20242024 Senate, MTR+3R+7.1D+4.6D+1.8
Oct 24, 20242024 Generic ballotD+1R+2.7D+3.5D+3.4
Oct 24, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.7
Oct 23, 20242024 Governor, NHR+4R+9.3D+5.4D+9.7
Oct 23, 20242024 President, NHD+4D+2.8D+0.9D+6.2
Oct 23, 20242024 Senate, MOR+10R+13.7D+3.6D+4.0
Oct 22, 20242024 Senate, WID+1D+0.8R+0.1D+3.0
Oct 22, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.2D+2.6
Oct 22, 20242024 Governor, NCD+13D+14.8R+2.3R+0.9
Oct 22, 20242024 President, SDR+26R+29.2D+3.7D+3.2
Oct 22, 20242024 President, WIR+1R+0.9D+0.2D+3.0
Oct 22, 20242024 Senate, PAD+1R+0.2D+1.6D+4.8
Oct 22, 20242024 House, SD-1R+36R+44.1D+8.2D+7.1
Oct 22, 20242024 President, PAR+2R+1.7EvenD+2.6
Oct 21, 20242024 Senate, MDD+13D+11.8D+1.4D+1.0
Oct 21, 20242024 Senate, TXR+2R+8.5D+7.0D+4.5
Oct 21, 20242024 President, MDD+30D+28.5D+1.1R+1.5
Oct 21, 20242024 President, TXR+7R+13.7D+6.5D+7.1
Oct 20, 20242024 Senate, FLR+6R+12.8D+7.2D+8.0
Oct 20, 20242024 President, FLR+8R+13.1D+5.4D+7.3
Oct 16, 20242024 Generic ballotD+2R+2.7D+5.0D+3.4
Oct 16, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.8D+3.7
Oct 14, 20242024 President, CAD+24D+20.1D+4.3D+6.1
Oct 14, 20242024 Senate, CAD+24D+17.7D+5.8D+5.0
Oct 11, 20242024 House, CT-5D+3D+6.8R+3.8—