Pollster record · how records are scored
InsiderAdvantage
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2004 to 2025
Versus the field
−0.12
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.21; 45% own record)
Average miss
4.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+1.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
203
78 races · 18 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 9 | 3.9 | −0.3 | D+0.5 |
| 2006 | 10 | 4.7 | +0.2 | Even |
| 2007 | 1 | 7.4 | +3.6 | R+8.8 |
| 2008 | 43 | 5.1 | −0.1 | D+0.3 |
| 2009 | 1 | 13.7 | +7.5 | D+8.3 |
| 2010 | 9 | 5.6 | +2.1 | R+1.0 |
| 2012 | 3 | 7.1 | +4.8 | R+4.9 |
| 2014 | 8 | 5.6 | +0.6 | D+0.4 |
| 2016 | 15 | 3.3 | −0.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2017 | 2 | 2.3 | −4.0 | D+1.1 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.5 | −0.8 | D+1.9 |
| 2020 | 20 | 3.0 | −1.4 | R+2.6 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0.1 | −3.1 | R+3.7 |
| 2022 | 40 | 4.7 | +0.7 | R+2.6 |
| 2024 | 38 | 1.8 | −1.6 | R+2.3 |
| 2025 | 1 | 5.2 | −0.9 | D+1.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+2 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+6 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Senate NH | Chris Pappas v. John Sununu | D+8 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | D+5 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Senate SC | Annie Andrews v. Darline Graham | R+2 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | D+2 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Governor GA | Keisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick Jackson | Even |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Senate GA | Jon Ossoff v. Mike Collins | D+8 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+10 | D+15.4 | R+5.2 | R+6.4 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2024 President, IA | R+7 | R+13.2 | D+6.4 | D+9.0 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | R+1 | R+2.2 | D+1.2 | D+1.6 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | R+1 | R+0.9 | R+0.4 | D+3.0 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.0 | D+2.6 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+2 | D+2.4 | R+0.3 | D+5.0 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | Even | R+1.4 | D+1.5 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | R+1 | R+1.7 | D+0.7 | D+2.6 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+1 | D+0.3 | D+0.3 | D+4.3 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+1 | R+0.2 | D+1.3 | D+4.8 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+3 | R+5.5 | D+2.6 | D+4.7 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | R+1 | D+0.8 | R+1.3 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | R+1 | R+1.4 | D+0.8 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | Even | R+0.2 | D+0.2 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+1 | D+0.3 | D+0.3 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | R+1 | D+0.8 | R+1.8 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | R+1 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | R+1 | R+1.7 | D+0.7 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.3 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 President, NV | Even | R+3.1 | D+2.9 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+3 | R+5.5 | D+3.0 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+4 | D+2.4 | D+1.8 | D+5.0 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NV | D+4 | D+1.6 | D+2.7 | D+6.0 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | R+2 | R+2.2 | D+0.2 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | R+2 | R+1.4 | R+0.6 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+1 | D+0.8 | D+0.2 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | Even | R+0.9 | D+0.9 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+1 | D+0.3 | D+0.7 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | R+2 | R+1.7 | R+0.3 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+1 | R+5.5 | D+4.1 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | Even | R+2.2 | D+2.4 | D+1.6 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NV | D+8 | D+1.6 | D+6.2 | D+6.0 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | Even | R+3.2 | D+3.0 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+7 | D+2.4 | D+4.1 | D+5.0 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 2024 President, NV | R+1 | R+3.1 | D+2.2 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+5 | R+0.2 | D+4.8 | D+4.8 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | R+1 | R+1.7 | D+0.3 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | R+1 | R+1.4 | D+0.8 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+2 | R+0.9 | D+3.3 | D+3.0 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+2 | D+2.8 | R+0.7 | D+0.4 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+5 | R+7.5 | D+2.5 | D+0.4 |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | R+2 | D+1.0 | R+3.0 | D+0.2 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NH | R+15 | R+15.5 | D+0.2 | D+0.1 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NH | D+2 | D+9.1 | R+7.3 | R+3.2 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NV | R+6 | D+0.8 | R+6.8 | R+0.4 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NV | R+5 | R+1.5 | R+3.7 | D+0.9 |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | R+2 | D+4.9 | R+7.2 | R+2.5 |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+8 | D+14.8 | R+7.1 | R+3.8 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | R+3 | D+0.7 | R+3.7 | R+1.5 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | Even | D+4.9 | R+4.9 | R+0.9 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+6 | R+16.4 | D+10.4 | D+9.8 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+10 | R+19.4 | D+9.4 | D+10.1 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WA | D+2 | D+14.5 | R+12.9 | R+5.8 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | Even | D+10.5 | R+10.7 | R+3.8 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | R+2 | D+1.0 | R+3.2 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+8 | R+7.5 | R+0.9 | D+0.4 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+8 | D+14.8 | R+6.4 | R+3.8 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | R+3 | D+4.9 | R+7.6 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+5 | R+2.6 | R+2.1 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+2 | D+4.9 | R+2.9 | R+0.9 |