Pollster record · how records are scored
Marist University
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 1998 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.05; 56% own record)
Average miss
4.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.6
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
291
161 races · 15 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 4 | 11.8 | −2.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2000 | 12 | 6.4 | +0.4 | R+0.7 |
| 2002 | 4 | 4.3 | +0.6 | R+5.3 |
| 2004 | 9 | 5.6 | +0.4 | D+2.0 |
| 2005 | 4 | 4.7 | +2.0 | R+2.3 |
| 2006 | 6 | 10.2 | +1.5 | D+1.1 |
| 2008 | 23 | 3.4 | −1.1 | D+0.5 |
| 2010 | 26 | 7.4 | +1.2 | R+1.9 |
| 2012 | 48 | 3.0 | −1.2 | D+2.0 |
| 2013 | 1 | 2.5 | −2.3 | R+1.5 |
| 2014 | 21 | 5.7 | −0.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2016 | 30 | 4.4 | +0.1 | D+0.3 |
| 2018 | 29 | 4.4 | −0.0 | D+0.9 |
| 2020 | 15 | 5.9 | +0.7 | D+1.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | 3.8 | −0.6 | D+2.4 |
| 2024 | 35 | 4.3 | +0.4 | D+0.4 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+10 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+9 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+17 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+14 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President | D+4 | R+1.5 | D+5.5 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | D+2 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+3 | R+1.4 | D+4.4 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+2 | R+0.9 | D+2.9 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+6 | D+0.3 | D+5.7 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+3 | D+0.8 | D+2.2 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+2 | R+1.7 | D+3.7 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+2 | R+0.2 | D+2.2 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | Even | R+2.2 | D+2.2 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+1 | R+5.5 | D+4.5 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+14 | D+14.8 | R+0.8 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+8 | D+2.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 President | D+5 | R+1.5 | D+6.5 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2024 President, FL | R+4 | R+13.1 | D+9.1 | D+7.2 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2024 Senate, TX | R+5 | R+8.5 | D+3.5 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2024 Senate, OH | D+2 | R+3.6 | D+5.6 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2024 President, OH | R+6 | R+11.2 | D+5.2 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2024 Senate, FL | R+2 | R+12.8 | D+10.8 | D+7.9 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2024 President, TX | R+7 | R+13.7 | D+6.7 | D+7.2 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | Even | R+2.7 | D+2.7 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 President | D+2 | R+1.5 | D+3.5 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+10 | D+2.4 | D+7.6 | D+4.8 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | Even | R+3.2 | D+3.2 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | R+1 | R+2.2 | D+1.2 | D+1.6 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+1 | R+5.5 | D+4.5 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+11 | D+14.8 | R+3.8 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+5 | R+0.2 | D+5.2 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+3 | D+0.8 | D+2.2 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+5 | R+1.4 | D+6.4 | D+3.6 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+7 | D+0.3 | D+6.7 | D+4.1 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+1 | R+0.9 | D+1.9 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 5, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | D+1 | R+2.7 | D+3.7 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 5, 2024 | 2024 President | D+1 | R+1.5 | D+2.5 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | D+1 | D+0.7 | D+0.3 | R+1.7 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+6 | D+4.9 | D+1.1 | R+2.9 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+4 | D+4.9 | R+0.9 | R+1.0 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+4 | D+1.0 | D+3.0 | D+0.1 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+15 | D+14.8 | D+0.2 | R+4.0 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+6 | R+7.5 | D+1.5 | D+0.4 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | Even | R+2.6 | D+2.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OH | R+13 | R+25.0 | D+12.0 | D+5.9 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OH | R+1 | R+6.1 | D+5.1 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NC | Even | R+3.2 | D+3.2 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, TX | R+4 | R+10.9 | D+6.9 | D+2.7 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CO | D+18 | D+19.4 | R+1.4 | R+4.6 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NY | D+10 | D+7.3 | D+2.7 | D+1.3 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, CO | D+7 | D+14.6 | R+7.6 | R+4.8 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NY | D+20 | D+14.0 | D+6.0 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 29, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | D+2 | R+2.6 | D+4.6 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+10 | D+4.9 | D+5.1 | R+2.9 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | R+1 | D+0.7 | R+1.7 | R+1.7 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+13 | D+14.8 | R+1.8 | R+4.0 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+10 | D+4.9 | D+5.1 | R+1.0 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+5 | D+1.0 | D+4.0 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+6 | R+7.5 | D+1.5 | D+0.4 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OH | R+18 | R+25.0 | D+7.0 | D+5.9 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OH | R+1 | R+6.1 | D+5.1 | D+4.1 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+6 | D+2.3 | D+3.7 | D+4.1 |