Pollster record · how records are scored
SSRS
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2018
Versus the field
+0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.81; 5% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
4.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
21
8 races · 4 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 1 | 5.9 | +1.9 | D+4.0 |
| 2000 | 9 | 3.5 | −0.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2002 | 1 | 4.7 | −1.9 | R+0.7 |
| 2004 | 6 | 2.9 | +0.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2016 | 1 | 15.0 | +0.4 | D+1.0 |
| 2018 | 3 | 7.3 | +0.7 | D+4.7 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Governor IA | Rob Sand v. Zach Lahn | D+9 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Governor OH | Amy Acton v. Vivek Ramaswamy | D+8 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | R+2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | D+6 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TN | D+1 | R+10.8 | D+11.8 | D+6.6 |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2018 Governor, TN | R+11 | R+21.0 | D+10.0 | D+5.9 |
| Sep 9, 2018 | 2018 Senate, VA | D+16 | D+16.0 | Even | — |
| Sep 25, 2016 | 2016 President, TN | R+11 | R+26.0 | D+15.0 | D+14.1 |
| Oct 24, 2004 | 2004 President | R+1 | R+2.4 | D+1.4 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 10, 2004 | 2004 President | R+3 | R+2.4 | R+0.6 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 3, 2004 | 2004 President | R+5 | R+2.4 | R+2.6 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 26, 2004 | 2004 President | R+8 | R+2.4 | R+5.6 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 10, 2004 | 2004 President | R+8 | R+2.4 | R+5.6 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 3, 2004 | 2004 President | R+1 | R+2.4 | D+1.4 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 8, 2002 | 2002 House | Even | R+4.7 | D+4.7 | D+5.4 |
| Nov 3, 2000 | 2000 President | R+2 | D+0.5 | R+2.5 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 27, 2000 | 2000 President | R+3 | D+0.5 | R+3.5 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 20, 2000 | 2000 President | R+2 | D+0.5 | R+2.5 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 13, 2000 | 2000 President | R+3 | D+0.5 | R+3.5 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 6, 2000 | 2000 President | R+1 | D+0.5 | R+1.5 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 29, 2000 | 2000 President | D+3 | D+0.5 | D+2.5 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 22, 2000 | 2000 President | D+6 | D+0.5 | D+5.5 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 15, 2000 | 2000 President | D+2 | D+0.5 | D+1.5 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 8, 2000 | 2000 President | D+9 | D+0.5 | D+8.5 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 23, 1998 | 1998 House | D+5 | R+0.9 | D+5.9 | D+1.9 |