House Effects
Sunday, November 1, 20262 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

The New York Times/Siena College

Method: live phone · scored polls from 2016 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.34
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.63; 56% own record)
Average miss
4.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
244
155 races · 52 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2016154.9+0.6D+1.0
201715.9+0.0R+0.4
2018994.7−0.9D+0.6
2020695.8−0.3D+0.4
2022141.9−2.8D+2.0
2024463.6−0.3R+0.7
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Oct 29, 2026Senate NEDan Osborn v. Pete RickettsR+6
Oct 29, 2026Governor NELynne Walz v. Jim PillenR+13
Oct 26, 2026Governor SCJermaine Johnson v. Alan WilsonR+7
Oct 26, 2026Senate SCAnnie Andrews v. Darline GrahamEven
Oct 26, 2026Senate MNPeggy Flanagan v. Michele TafoyaD+14
Oct 26, 2026Governor MNAmy Klobuchar v. Lisa DemuthD+18
Oct 25, 2026Governor FLDavid Jolly v. Byron DonaldsR+4
Oct 25, 2026Senate FLAngie Nixon v. Ashley MoodyR+6
Oct 22, 2026PA-8Paige Cognetti v. Rob BresnahanD+5
Oct 22, 2026PA-7Bob Brooks v. Ryan MackenzieD+5
Oct 22, 2026PA-10Janelle Stelson v. Scott PerryEven
Oct 22, 2026PA-1Bob Harvie v. Brian FitzpatrickD+2
Oct 19, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Oct 1, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+3
Oct 1, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+1
Oct 1, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+11
Oct 1, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottD+3
Oct 1, 2026Senate AKMary Peltola v. Dan S. SullivanD+7
Oct 1, 2026Governor AKJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins v. Bernadette WilsonD+4
Oct 1, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+4
Sep 30, 2026Governor KSCindy Holscher v. Ty MastersonR+5
Sep 30, 2026Senate KSAdam Hamilton v. Roger MarshallR+1
Sep 30, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+6
Sep 22, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsR+3
Sep 22, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+5
Sep 22, 2026Governor PAJosh Shapiro v. Stacy GarrityD+21
Sep 22, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+11
Sep 22, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+6
Sep 22, 2026Governor MEHannah Pingree v. Bobby CharlesD+13
Sep 22, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+5
Sep 13, 2026Generic ballotD+9
Aug 21, 2026Governor PAJosh Shapiro v. Stacy GarrityD+16
Jun 29, 2026Senate AKMary Peltola v. Dan SullivanR+2
Jun 28, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedR+3
Jun 28, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyEven
Jun 27, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+7
Jun 27, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonEven
Jun 27, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+6
Jun 27, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+2
Jun 27, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+2
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, WID+4D+0.8D+3.2D+2.9
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, MID+2D+0.3D+1.7D+4.2
Nov 2, 20242024 Governor, NCD+18D+14.8D+3.2R+0.9
Nov 2, 20242024 President, AZR+4R+5.5D+1.5D+4.8
Nov 2, 20242024 President, MIEvenR+1.4D+1.4D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NCD+3R+3.2D+5.7D+2.6
Nov 2, 20242024 President, PAEvenR+1.7D+1.7D+2.5
Nov 2, 20242024 President, WID+3R+0.9D+3.4D+2.9
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, AZD+5D+2.4D+2.6D+4.9
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NVD+3R+3.1D+5.6D+3.6
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, PAD+5R+0.2D+5.2D+4.7
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, NVD+9D+1.6D+7.4D+5.8
Nov 1, 20242024 President, GAD+1R+2.2D+2.7D+1.6
Oct 26, 20242024 Senate, TXR+4R+8.5D+4.5D+4.5
Oct 26, 20242024 President, TXR+11R+13.7D+3.2D+7.3
Oct 26, 20242024 President, NER+15R+20.5D+6.0D+4.6
Oct 23, 20242024 PresidentR+1R+1.5D+1.0D+3.8
Oct 23, 20242024 Generic ballotEvenR+2.7D+2.7D+3.4
Oct 10, 20242024 President, AZR+5R+5.5D+0.5D+4.8
Oct 10, 20242024 Senate, AZD+7D+2.4D+4.6D+4.9
Oct 10, 20242024 Senate, PAD+4R+0.2D+4.2D+4.7
Oct 10, 20242024 President, PAD+4R+1.7D+5.2D+2.5
Oct 8, 20242024 Governor, MTR+22R+20.2R+1.8D+3.2
Oct 8, 20242024 President, MTR+17R+19.9D+2.9D+1.7
Oct 8, 20242024 Senate, MTR+8R+7.1R+0.9D+2.8
Oct 6, 20242024 President, FLR+14R+13.1R+0.4D+7.6
Oct 6, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.8
Oct 6, 20242024 Senate, FLR+9R+12.8D+3.8D+8.3
Oct 4, 20242024 Senate, TXR+4R+8.5D+4.5D+4.5
Oct 4, 20242024 President, TXR+7R+13.7D+7.2D+7.3
Sep 26, 20242024 Senate, WID+7D+0.8D+6.2D+2.9
Sep 26, 20242024 President, MID+1R+1.4D+1.9D+3.7
Sep 26, 20242024 Senate, OHD+4R+3.6D+7.6D+3.7
Sep 26, 20242024 President, OHR+6R+11.2D+5.2D+4.2
Sep 26, 20242024 House, NE-2D+3R+1.9D+4.9D+5.4
Sep 26, 20242024 President, WID+2R+0.9D+2.9D+2.9
Sep 26, 20242024 Senate, MID+5D+0.3D+4.7D+4.2
Sep 21, 20242024 President, GAR+4R+2.2R+1.3D+1.6
Sep 21, 20242024 Senate, AZD+6D+2.4D+3.6D+4.9
Sep 21, 20242024 President, AZR+5R+5.5D+0.5D+4.8
Sep 21, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.2D+2.6
Sep 21, 20242024 Governor, NCD+10D+14.8R+4.8R+0.9
Sep 16, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.8
Sep 16, 20242024 Senate, PAD+9R+0.2D+9.2D+4.7
Sep 16, 20242024 President, PAD+4R+1.7D+5.7D+2.5
Sep 6, 20242024 PresidentR+2R+1.5EvenD+3.8
Oct 27, 20222022 Senate, GAD+3D+1.0D+2.0D+0.1
Oct 27, 20222022 Governor, GAR+5R+7.5D+2.5D+0.3
Oct 26, 20222022 Senate, PAD+5D+4.9D+0.1R+2.7
Oct 26, 20222022 Senate, AZD+6D+4.9D+1.1R+1.0
Oct 26, 20222022 Governor, PAD+13D+14.8R+1.8R+4.0
Oct 26, 20222022 Governor, AZEvenD+0.7R+0.7R+1.7
Oct 24, 20222022 Senate, NVEvenD+0.8R+0.8R+0.6
Oct 24, 20222022 House, NM-2D+1D+0.7D+0.3R+4.2
Oct 24, 20222022 House, KS-3D+14D+12.2D+1.8—
Oct 24, 20222022 Governor, NVR+4R+1.5R+2.5D+0.8
Oct 21, 20222022 House, NV-1EvenD+5.6R+5.6R+17.2
Oct 20, 20222022 House, PA-8D+6D+2.4D+3.6R+0.7
Oct 12, 20222022 Generic ballotR+3R+2.6R+0.4D+2.9
Sep 14, 20222022 Generic ballotD+1R+2.6D+3.6D+2.9