Pollster record · how records are scored
The New York Times/Siena College
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2016 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.34
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.63; 56% own record)
Average miss
4.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
244
155 races · 21 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 15 | 4.9 | +0.6 | D+1.0 |
| 2017 | 1 | 5.9 | +0.0 | R+0.4 |
| 2018 | 99 | 4.7 | −0.9 | D+0.6 |
| 2020 | 69 | 5.8 | −0.3 | D+0.4 |
| 2022 | 14 | 1.9 | −2.8 | D+2.0 |
| 2024 | 46 | 3.6 | −0.3 | R+0.7 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+9 | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Governor PA | Josh Shapiro v. Stacy Garrity | D+16 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | R+2 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Governor OH | Amy Acton v. Vivek Ramaswamy | Even |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | R+3 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Governor IA | Rob Sand v. Zach Lahn | D+2 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+6 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | R+2 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Senate NC | Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley | D+7 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | Even |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Governor ME | Hannah Pingree v. Bobby Charles | D+13 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Governor IA | Rob Sand v. Zach Lahn | D+1 |
| May 15, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+10 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+2 | |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+4 | D+0.8 | D+3.2 | D+2.9 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+2 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 | D+4.2 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+18 | D+14.8 | D+3.2 | R+0.9 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+4 | R+5.5 | D+1.5 | D+4.8 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | Even | R+1.4 | D+1.4 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | D+3 | R+3.2 | D+5.7 | D+2.6 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.5 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+3 | R+0.9 | D+3.4 | D+2.9 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+5 | D+2.4 | D+2.6 | D+4.9 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President, NV | D+3 | R+3.1 | D+5.6 | D+3.6 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+5 | R+0.2 | D+5.2 | D+4.7 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NV | D+9 | D+1.6 | D+7.4 | D+5.8 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | D+1 | R+2.2 | D+2.7 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, TX | R+4 | R+8.5 | D+4.5 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2024 President, TX | R+11 | R+13.7 | D+3.2 | D+7.3 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2024 President, NE | R+15 | R+20.5 | D+6.0 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 President | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+1.0 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | Even | R+2.7 | D+2.7 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+5 | R+5.5 | D+0.5 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+7 | D+2.4 | D+4.6 | D+4.9 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+4 | R+0.2 | D+4.2 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+4 | R+1.7 | D+5.2 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 Governor, MT | R+22 | R+20.2 | R+1.8 | D+3.2 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 President, MT | R+17 | R+19.9 | D+2.9 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MT | R+8 | R+7.1 | R+0.9 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | 2024 President, FL | R+14 | R+13.1 | R+0.4 | D+7.6 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | 2024 President | D+3 | R+1.5 | D+4.5 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | 2024 Senate, FL | R+9 | R+12.8 | D+3.8 | D+8.3 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 Senate, TX | R+4 | R+8.5 | D+4.5 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 President, TX | R+7 | R+13.7 | D+7.2 | D+7.3 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+7 | D+0.8 | D+6.2 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+1 | R+1.4 | D+1.9 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, OH | D+4 | R+3.6 | D+7.6 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 President, OH | R+6 | R+11.2 | D+5.2 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 House, NE-2 | D+3 | R+1.9 | D+4.9 | D+5.4 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+2 | R+0.9 | D+2.9 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+5 | D+0.3 | D+4.7 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | R+4 | R+2.2 | R+1.3 | D+1.6 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+6 | D+2.4 | D+3.6 | D+4.9 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+5 | R+5.5 | D+0.5 | D+4.8 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+10 | D+14.8 | R+4.8 | R+0.9 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 2024 President | Even | R+1.5 | D+1.5 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+9 | R+0.2 | D+9.2 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+4 | R+1.7 | D+5.7 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 2024 President | R+2 | R+1.5 | Even | D+3.8 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+3 | D+1.0 | D+2.0 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+5 | R+7.5 | D+2.5 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+5 | D+4.9 | D+0.1 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+6 | D+4.9 | D+1.1 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+13 | D+14.8 | R+1.8 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | Even | D+0.7 | R+0.7 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NV | Even | D+0.8 | R+0.8 | R+0.6 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 House, NM-2 | D+1 | D+0.7 | D+0.3 | R+4.2 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 House, KS-3 | D+14 | D+12.2 | D+1.8 | — |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NV | R+4 | R+1.5 | R+2.5 | D+0.8 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2022 House, NV-1 | Even | D+5.6 | R+5.6 | R+17.2 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 House, PA-8 | D+6 | D+2.4 | D+3.6 | R+0.7 |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+3 | R+2.6 | R+0.4 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 14, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | D+1 | R+2.6 | D+3.6 | D+2.9 |