House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

John Zogby Strategies

Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2020 to 2025

Versus the field
−0.20
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.47; 6% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
3.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
9
6 races · 23 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
202041.2−3.0R+4.7
202214.7+0.9D+1.9
202424.3+1.6D+0.7
202524.6−4.7D+5.1
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 17, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Aug 5, 2026Generic ballotD+11
May 22, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Apr 18, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Mar 18, 2026Generic ballotD+1
Feb 5, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Jan 8, 2026Governor NYKathy Hochul v. Bruce BlakemanD+15
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 3, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+12D+14.4R+2.8R+9.7
Oct 2, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+8D+14.4R+6.4R+9.7
Nov 3, 20242024 Generic ballotD+1R+2.7D+4.1D+3.4
Nov 3, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.4D+3.7
Oct 5, 20222022 Generic ballotD+2R+2.6D+4.7D+2.9
Nov 1, 20202020 Generic ballotD+2D+3.0R+0.7D+4.1
Nov 1, 20202020 PresidentD+6D+4.4D+1.5D+4.4
Oct 2, 20202020 Generic ballotD+3D+3.0R+0.2D+4.1
Oct 2, 20202020 PresidentD+2D+4.4R+2.3D+4.4