2026 projections
The House
All 435 seats, on the lines in force this November, including the 9 states that redrew their maps since 2024. Only 110 districts have any public polling, so each projection starts from the district's 2024 presidential vote, the national environment, incumbency, the incumbent's last over- or under-performance, and the fundraising gap, then blends in district polls where they exist.
Democrats win control
91%
Democrats 91%, Republicans 9%; 218 seats make a majority.
Democratic seats, expected
232.7
An average over simulations, not a single forecast. 215 now; nine in ten simulations: 214 to 254.
Safe D 199Likely D 12Lean D 13Toss-up 12Lean R 21Likely R 17Safe R 161
The assumption that matters most: which way the polls miss
| If… | Democrats win control | Republicans win control | Democratic seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| No direction assumed (still carries the usual uncertainty) | 91% | 9% | 232.7 |
| Polls overstate Democrats as they did, on average, in 2016–24 (1.6 points) | 77% | 23% | 225.9 |
| Polls understate Democrats by the same amount (1.6 points) | 97% | 3% | 240.0 |
“No direction assumed” does not mean the polls are assumed to be exactly right: every row above, including that one, already carries the historical size of past misses as uncertainty (see Uncertainty) — the win probabilities and seat ranges everywhere on this page are built from that spread. It means only that the model does not bet on which direction the next miss runs, unlike the two rows below it. From 2016 through 2024 the projections this method would have made ran too Democratic on average; before that they ran about even, and in the 2025 governor's races the polls missed the other way. These rows show what a repeat of that pattern, or its mirror image, would mean on top of the uncertainty already built in.
Race by race
60 districts where either side has at least a 1-in-10 chance
The heavy rule is the majority line: the district just above it is the 218th most Democratic seat in the country. Far more Republican-held seats than Democratic ones sit near that line, which is why Democrats are favored overall even though the 218th seat itself is close to even. District polls are scarce and often sponsored; they get about half the weight in a polled district. How polls and fundamentals are blended.
Race
D+20EvenR+20
ProjectionProj.
NC-11
Ager v. Balkcom
D+6.5
90% D
NM-2
Vasquez v. Cunningham
D+6.3
87% D
NH-1
Shaheen v. DiLorenzo
D+5.9
86% D
CA-22
Villegas v. Valadao
D+5.5
83% D
FL-14
Castor v. Beltran
D+5.1
81% D
TX-34
Gonzalez v. Flores
D+4.8
80% D
MI-7
Lawrence v. Barrett
D+4.1
77% D
NC-1
Davis v. Buckhout
D+3.6
77% D
NJ-7
Bennett v. Kean
D+3.6
73% D
PA-7
Brooks v. Mackenzie
D+3.6
77% D
OH-9
Kaptur v. Merrin
D+3.4
74% D
AZ-1
Shah v. Feely
D+3.2
74% D
TX-15
Pulido v. Cruz
D+3.1
73% D
▲ House majority: Democrats need every race above this line
VA-2
Luria v. Kiggans
D+2.6
67% D
CO-8
Rutinel v. Evans
D+2.0
65% D
PA-8
Cognetti v. Bresnahan
D+1.9
65% D
KY-6
Dembo v. Alvarado
D+1.6
63% D
FL-25
Moskowitz v. Singer
D+1.5
61% D
WA-3
Perez v. Braun
D+1.4
61% D
MT-1
Forstag v. Flint
D+1.1
59% D
PA-10
Stelson v. Perry
D+0.9
57% D
NY-17
Conley v. Lawler
D+0.7
56% D
AZ-6
Mendoza v. Ciscomani
D+0.5
54% D
IA-2
James v. Mitchell
D+0.5
53% D
WI-3
Cooke v. Orden
R+0.2
52% R
FL-22
Dandiya v. Askar
R+0.2
52% R
ME-2
Dunlap v. LePage
R+0.7
56% R
MO-2
Wellman v. Wagner
R+0.8
56% R
PA-1
Harvie v. Fitzpatrick
R+0.8
57% R
TX-35
Garcia v. Cruz
R+0.9
57% R
IA-3
Garriott v. Nunn
R+1.0
57% R
SC-1
Lacore v. Honeycutt
R+1.6
63% R
FL-7
Dalton v. Elijah
R+1.7
62% R
VA-1
Taylor v. Wittman
R+1.8
64% R
OH-7
Poindexter v. Miller
R+2.0
64% R
CO-5
Killin v. Crank
R+2.1
66% R
WI-1
Berman v. Steil
R+2.3
67% R
CO-3
Romero v. Hurd
R+2.3
66% R
FL-9
Soto v. Green
R+2.4
66% R
MN-1
Johnson v. Finstad
R+2.6
70% R
OH-10
Knickerbocker v. Turner
R+3.5
73% R
NY-21
Gendebien v. Constantino
R+3.5
76% R
AZ-2
Nez v. Crane
R+3.7
75% R
OH-15
Leonard v. Carey
R+3.8
74% R
MI-4
McCann v. Huizenga
R+4.0
77% R
IN-5
Ford v. Spartz
R+4.0
78% R
TX-23
Stout v. Herrera
R+4.2
77% R
NY-1
Gallant v. LaLota
R+4.3
77% R
FL-13
Gray v. Luna
R+4.3
79% R
MI-10
Hines v. Bouchard
R+4.4
78% R
AL-2
Figures v. Marques
R+4.5
79% R
FL-11
Pericola v. Strada
R+4.5
78% R
FL-16
Kirschner v. Gruters
R+4.7
81% R
NV-2
Benitez-Thompson v. Flippo
R+5.9
86% R
VA-5
Perriello v. McGuire
R+6.0
88% R
NE-1
Backemeyer v. Flood
R+6.3
87% R
FL-27
Rodriguez v. Salazar
R+6.7
90% R
AR-2
Jones v. Hill
R+7.1
89% R
TN-9
Pearson v. Taylor
R+7.4
89% R
WA-5
Conroy v. Baumgartner
R+7.4
89% R
Table view
Every race, sortable
75 races
| Candidates | Rating | Raised (D / R) | Cook | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-3 | Suozzi v. LiPetri | LIKELY D | D+9.7 | 95% D | — | — | D+9.7 | R+3 | $3.2M / $297K | Lean D |
| NJ-9 | Pou v. Pino | LIKELY D | D+8.3 | 92% D | — | — | D+8.3 | Even | — | Likely D |
| IA-1 | Bohannan v. Miller-Meeks | LIKELY D | D+8.1 | 92% D | D+15.7 | 2 | R+2.5 | R+7 | $3.7M / $2.0M | Tossup |
| CA-48 | Wilpert v. Desmond | LIKELY D | D+8.1 | 94% D | D+8.1 | 4 | D+8.3 | D+5 | $881K / $1.6M | Lean D |
| NV-3 | Lee v. O'Donnell | LIKELY D | D+7.9 | 91% D | D+4.8 | 1 | D+12.2 | D+1 | $2.3M / $414K | Lean D |
| OH-1 | Landsman v. Conroy | LIKELY D | D+7.9 | 94% D | D+6.8 | 4 | D+12.0 | R+1 | $2.0M / $220K | Lean D |
| NC-11 | Ager v. Balkcom | LIKELY D | D+6.5 | 90% D | D+7.4 | 3 | D+3.8 | R+8 | $1.2M / — | Lean R |
| NM-2 | Vasquez v. Cunningham | LIKELY D | D+6.3 | 87% D | D+3.9 | 3 | D+10.9 | Even | $1.7M / $508K | Lean D |
| NH-1 | Shaheen v. DiLorenzo | LIKELY D | D+5.9 | 86% D | D+4.0 | 2 | D+9.3 | D+3 | $1.8M / $679K | Likely D |
| CA-22 | Villegas v. Valadao | LIKELY D | D+5.5 | 83% D | D+10.0 | 2 | R+0.6 | Even | $1.1M / $1.1M | Tossup |
| FL-14 | Castor v. Beltran | LIKELY D | D+5.1 | 81% D | D+4.6 | 2 | D+5.9 | R+9 | $387K / — | Tossup |
| TX-34 | Gonzalez v. Flores | LIKELY D | D+4.8 | 80% D | D+6.4 | 5 | D+2.2 | R+9 | $1.8M / $639K | Tossup |
| MI-7 | Lawrence v. Barrett | LEAN D | D+4.1 | 77% D | D+6.9 | 3 | R+0.1 | Even | $440K / $1.7M | Tossup |
| NC-1 | Davis v. Buckhout | LEAN D | D+3.6 | 77% D | D+3.6 | 8 | D+3.8 | R+10 | $1.3M / $185K | Lean R |
| NJ-7 | Bennett v. Kean | LEAN D | D+3.6 | 73% D | D+5.0 | 2 | D+1.7 | Even | $2.3M / $1.7M | Tossup |
| PA-7 | Brooks v. Mackenzie | LEAN D | D+3.6 | 77% D | D+4.3 | 5 | D+0.2 | R+2 | $664K / $852K | Tossup |
| OH-9 | Kaptur v. Merrin | LEAN D | D+3.4 | 74% D | D+2.9 | 3 | D+4.4 | R+9 | $1.4M / $312K | Tossup |
| AZ-1 | Shah v. Feely | LEAN D | D+3.2 | 74% D | D+1.2 | 3 | D+9.1 | R+2 | $1.1M / — | Tossup |
| TX-15 | Pulido v. Cruz | LEAN D | D+3.1 | 73% D | D+7.4 | 7 | R+14.2 | R+16 | $1.1M / $2.1M | Lean R |
| VA-2 | Luria v. Kiggans | LEAN D | D+2.6 | 67% D | D+2.8 | 2 | D+2.3 | D+1 | $1.6M / $1.8M | Tossup |
| CO-8 | Rutinel v. Evans | LEAN D | D+2.0 | 65% D | D+2.1 | 2 | D+1.9 | Even | $2.0M / $1.3M | Tossup |
| PA-8 | Cognetti v. Bresnahan | LEAN D | D+1.9 | 65% D | D+3.0 | 5 | R+2.8 | R+7 | $2.3M / $1.2M | Tossup |
| KY-6 | Dembo v. Alvarado | LEAN D | D+1.6 | 63% D | D+3.1 | 9 | R+6.7 | R+14 | $815K / $1.0M | Likely R |
| FL-25 | Moskowitz v. Singer | LEAN D | D+1.5 | 61% D | D+1.3 | 4 | D+2.0 | R+8 | $903K / $1.1M | Tossup |
| WA-3 | Perez v. Braun | LEAN D | D+1.4 | 61% D | R+2.0 | 5 | D+9.5 | R+2 | $1.7M / $1.2M | Tossup |
| MT-1 | Forstag v. Flint | TOSS-UP | D+1.1 | 59% D | D+1.7 | 10 | R+3.3 | R+10 | $340K / $299K | Likely R |
| PA-10 | Stelson v. Perry | TOSS-UP | D+0.9 | 57% D | D+1.0 | 6 | D+0.4 | R+4 | $2.8M / $1.4M | Tossup |
| NY-17 | Conley v. Lawler | TOSS-UP | D+0.7 | 56% D | D+0.4 | 5 | D+1.8 | D+2 | $2.8M / $2.8M | Tossup |
| AZ-6 | Mendoza v. Ciscomani | TOSS-UP | D+0.5 | 54% D | R+1.5 | 3 | D+3.3 | D+1 | $3.4M / $1.9M | Tossup |
| IA-2 | James v. Mitchell | TOSS-UP | D+0.5 | 53% D | D+2.4 | 3 | R+2.2 | R+9 | $1.2M / $1.2M | Lean R |
| WI-3 | Cooke v. Orden | TOSS-UP | R+0.2 | 52% R | D+0.4 | 4 | R+1.6 | R+6 | $4.4M / $2.2M | Tossup |
| FL-22 | Dandiya v. Askar | TOSS-UP | R+0.2 | 52% R | R+1.2 | 3 | D+3.2 | R+9 | $1.2M / — | Lean R |
| ME-2 | Dunlap v. LePage | TOSS-UP | R+0.7 | 56% R | D+0.2 | 8 | R+3.4 | R+8 | $374K / $1.6M | Likely R |
| MO-2 | Wellman v. Wagner | TOSS-UP | R+0.8 | 56% R | D+0.8 | 4 | R+5.9 | R+6 | $366K / $1.5M | Likely R |
| PA-1 | Harvie v. Fitzpatrick | TOSS-UP | R+0.8 | 57% R | R+1.3 | 8 | D+1.0 | D+2 | $987K / $1.3M | Likely R |
| TX-35 | Garcia v. Cruz | TOSS-UP | R+0.9 | 57% R | R+0.6 | 4 | R+2.3 | R+9 | $425K / $344K | Likely R |
| IA-3 | Garriott v. Nunn | TOSS-UP | R+1.0 | 57% R | R+2.3 | 1 | D+0.7 | R+3 | $2.9M / $1.0M | Tossup |
| SC-1 | Lacore v. Honeycutt | LEAN R | R+1.6 | 63% R | R+1.1 | 5 | R+3.2 | R+12 | $1.1M / $360K | Likely R |
| FL-7 | Dalton v. Elijah | LEAN R | R+1.7 | 62% R | R+3.7 | 1 | D+0.9 | R+11 | $923K / — | Likely R |
| VA-1 | Taylor v. Wittman | LEAN R | R+1.8 | 64% R | R+1.6 | 5 | R+2.4 | R+3 | $856K / $1.4M | Lean R |
| OH-7 | Poindexter v. Miller | LEAN R | R+2.0 | 64% R | D+2.6 | 6 | R+9.7 | R+10 | $79K / $725K | Tossup |
| CO-5 | Killin v. Crank | LEAN R | R+2.1 | 66% R | R+1.5 | 4 | R+3.6 | R+8 | $2.0M / $808K | Likely R |
| WI-1 | Berman v. Steil | LEAN R | R+2.3 | 67% R | R+1.5 | 4 | R+4.2 | R+3 | $170K / $1.2M | Likely R |
| CO-3 | Romero v. Hurd | LEAN R | R+2.3 | 66% R | D+0.9 | 2 | R+6.7 | R+8 | $353K / $1.8M | Likely R |
| FL-9 | Soto v. Green | LEAN R | R+2.4 | 66% R | R+3.6 | 2 | R+0.7 | R+16 | $329K / — | Likely R |
| MN-1 | Johnson v. Finstad | LEAN R | R+2.6 | 70% R | R+1.1 | 5 | R+7.9 | R+11 | $598K / $555K | Likely R |
| OH-10 | Knickerbocker v. Turner | LEAN R | R+3.5 | 73% R | R+1.1 | 3 | R+6.9 | R+6 | $86K / $329K | Likely R |
| NY-21 | Gendebien v. Constantino | LEAN R | R+3.5 | 76% R | R+3.3 | 8 | R+4.6 | R+19 | $2.5M / — | Safe R |
| AZ-2 | Nez v. Crane | LEAN R | R+3.7 | 75% R | D+0.4 | 4 | R+11.1 | R+13 | $1.8M / $5.6M | Likely R |
| OH-15 | Leonard v. Carey | LEAN R | R+3.8 | 74% R | R+1.1 | 4 | R+7.4 | R+9 | $229K / $650K | Likely R |
| MI-4 | McCann v. Huizenga | LEAN R | R+4.0 | 77% R | R+4.7 | 5 | R+2.5 | R+4 | $1.1M / $1.1M | Lean R |
| IN-5 | Ford v. Spartz | LEAN R | R+4.0 | 78% R | R+0.8 | 3 | R+11.8 | R+15 | $422K / $562K | Safe R |
| TX-23 | Stout v. Herrera | LEAN R | R+4.2 | 77% R | R+3.6 | 2 | R+5.0 | R+13 | $87K / $21K | Likely R |
| NY-1 | Gallant v. LaLota | LEAN R | R+4.3 | 77% R | R+5.9 | 1 | R+2.1 | R+9 | $423K / — | Safe R |
| FL-13 | Gray v. Luna | LEAN R | R+4.3 | 79% R | R+2.3 | 6 | R+8.4 | R+12 | $475K / $488K | Likely R |
| MI-10 | Hines v. Bouchard | LEAN R | R+4.4 | 78% R | R+7.0 | 3 | R+0.4 | R+5 | $618K / $1.3M | Tossup |
| AL-2 | Figures v. Marques | LEAN R | R+4.5 | 79% R | R+2.1 | 4 | R+8.4 | R+13 | $174K / $1.2M | Likely R |
| FL-11 | Pericola v. Strada | LEAN R | R+4.5 | 78% R | R+3.8 | 1 | R+5.4 | R+14 | $50K / — | Safe R |
| FL-16 | Kirschner v. Gruters | LIKELY R | R+4.7 | 81% R | R+5.9 | 2 | R+2.2 | R+12 | $190K / — | Safe R |
| NV-2 | Benitez-Thompson v. Flippo | LIKELY R | R+5.9 | 86% R | R+4.8 | 3 | R+8.3 | R+12 | $60K / $555K | Safe R |
| VA-5 | Perriello v. McGuire | LIKELY R | R+6.0 | 88% R | R+5.6 | 4 | R+7.2 | R+11 | $1.2M / $705K | Safe R |
| NE-1 | Backemeyer v. Flood | LIKELY R | R+6.3 | 87% R | R+3.6 | 4 | R+10.9 | R+12 | $229K / $894K | Safe R |
| TX-9 | Gutierrez v. Mealer | LIKELY R | R+6.6 | 90% R | R+5.7 | 3 | R+9.3 | R+18 | $31K / — | Safe R |
| FL-27 | Rodriguez v. Salazar | LIKELY R | R+6.7 | 90% R | R+4.3 | 3 | R+12.5 | R+13 | $286K / $517K | Likely R |
| AR-2 | Jones v. Hill | LIKELY R | R+7.1 | 89% R | R+4.1 | 3 | R+11.6 | R+14 | $837K / $1.7M | Safe R |
| TN-9 | Pearson v. Taylor | LIKELY R | R+7.4 | 89% R | R+7.7 | 1 | R+6.9 | R+20 | $618K / — | Safe R |
| WA-5 | Conroy v. Baumgartner | LIKELY R | R+7.4 | 89% R | R+6.0 | 1 | R+9.2 | R+9 | $267K / $998K | Safe R |
| GA-11 | Harden v. Cowan | LIKELY R | R+7.7 | 90% R | R+1.6 | 1 | R+15.8 | R+22 | $60K / $424K | Safe R |
| CO-4 | Laubacher v. Boebert | LIKELY R | R+8.5 | 92% R | R+8.3 | 1 | R+8.7 | R+17 | $2.8M / $411K | Safe R |
| NC-9 | Ojeda v. Hudson | LIKELY R | R+8.6 | 93% R | R+7.0 | 2 | R+11.1 | R+14 | $550K / $646K | Safe R |
| NC-3 | Smith v. Murphy | LIKELY R | R+8.8 | 93% R | R+6.6 | 1 | R+11.6 | R+12 | $107K / $828K | Safe R |
| NC-14 | Womack v. Moore | LIKELY R | R+8.8 | 93% R | R+4.3 | 1 | R+14.8 | R+14 | $4K / $1.0M | Safe R |
| GA-7 | Kozycki v. McCormick | LIKELY R | R+9.5 | 94% R | R+2.0 | 2 | R+19.4 | R+21 | $50K / $395K | Safe R |
| TN-5 | Molder v. Hatcher | LIKELY R | R+9.6 | 95% R | R+8.5 | 2 | R+11.0 | R+22 | $1.9M / $396K | Safe R |
| NC-7 | Hardy v. Rouzer | LIKELY R | R+9.7 | 95% R | R+8.9 | 1 | R+10.8 | R+12 | $180K / $567K | Safe R |
Bold surname = incumbent running. Settled = only one major party is on the November ballot. Lean = presidential vote relative to the nation. Cook = Cook Political Report rating as listed on Wikipedia, shown for comparison only; it is not an input.