Pollster record · how records are scored
GBAO
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2010 to 2024 · 93% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.04
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.39; 21% own record)
Average miss
5.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
57
45 races · 21 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1 | 20.3 | +12.3 | D+7.2 |
| 2012 | 8 | 4.3 | −1.8 | R+1.5 |
| 2014 | 3 | 5.7 | −1.5 | D+2.7 |
| 2016 | 9 | 5.4 | −0.1 | R+0.5 |
| 2017 | 1 | 5.6 | −0.9 | R+4.0 |
| 2018 | 10 | 3.2 | −1.6 | Even |
| 2020 | 19 | 7.6 | +1.3 | D+0.4 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1.4 | −4.4 | R+2.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | 6.8 | +2.9 | R+0.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | NC-1 | Don Davis v. Laurie Buckhout | D+7 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | NV-2 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson v. David Flippo | D+1 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | AZ-2 | Jonathan Nez v. Eli Crane | R+2 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+6 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+1 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Governor WI | David Crowley v. Tom Tiffany | D+3 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Senate KS | Adam Hamilton v. Roger Marshall | R+4 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | PA-7 | Bob Brooks v. Ryan E. Mackenzie | D+4 |
| Jun 20, 2026 | OH-7 | Brian Poindexter v. Max Miller | R+1 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | AZ-2 | Jonathan Nez v. Eli Crane | R+3 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | MI-4 | Sean McCann v. Bill Huizenga | D+3 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | R+4 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+3 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+6 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Senate, TXD-ALIGNED | Even | R+8.5 | D+8.5 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | 2024 Governor, IND-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+13.3 | D+10.3 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 House, NY-17D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+6.3 | D+3.8 | D+3.5 |
| Sep 10, 2024 | 2024 House, WI-3D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Governor, ORD-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+3.4 | R+1.4 | R+2.9 |
| Oct 5, 2022 | 2022 House, OR-6D-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+2.4 | R+1.4 | R+3.5 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 Senate, KSD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+11.4 | D+11.9 | D+6.8 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President | D+13 | D+4.4 | D+8.6 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+12 | D+3.0 | D+9.0 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 17, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NMD-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+6.1 | D+4.9 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 17, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-6D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+8.8 | D+4.8 | — |
| Oct 17, 2020 | 2020 President, NMD-ALIGNED | D+13 | D+10.8 | D+2.2 | D+0.8 |
| Oct 11, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-22D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+6.9 | D+11.9 | — |
| Oct 11, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-10D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+7.1 | D+5.1 | — |
| Oct 2, 2020 | 2020 House, PA-10D-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+6.6 | D+12.6 | D+6.8 |
| Sep 28, 2020 | 2020 President, SCD-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+11.7 | D+6.7 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 28, 2020 | 2020 Senate, SCD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+10.3 | D+11.3 | D+7.3 |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-22D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+6.9 | D+9.9 | — |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 Senate, KSD-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+11.4 | D+13.4 | D+6.8 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-10D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+7.1 | D+5.1 | — |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 House, IL-13D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+8.9 | D+7.9 | D+10.0 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 President | D+12 | D+4.4 | D+7.6 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 President, GAD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+0.2 | D+2.8 | D+0.6 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 Senate, GAD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+1.8 | D+2.8 | D+1.7 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+9 | D+3.0 | D+6.0 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2018 House, OH-12D-ALIGNED | Even | R+4.2 | D+4.2 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TXD-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-1D-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+1.0 | R+4.3 | R+11.0 |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2018 House, IL-13D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+0.8 | R+0.2 | R+6.3 |
| Oct 1, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-26D-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+1.7 | D+0.3 | R+3.8 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, TX-32D-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+6.5 | R+4.5 | R+5.4 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-45D-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+4.1 | R+3.1 | R+1.8 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 House, OH-1D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+4.4 | D+6.4 | R+1.9 |
| Sep 11, 2018 | 2018 House, IL-13D-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+0.8 | R+4.2 | R+6.3 |
| Sep 6, 2018 | 2018 House, OH-12D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+4.2 | D+3.2 | R+1.7 |
| Apr 30, 2017 | 2017 House, GA-6D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+3.6 | D+5.6 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2016 House, MN-2D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+1.8 | D+6.8 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 2016 House, PA-16D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+10.9 | D+7.9 | — |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 2016 House, IA-1D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+7.7 | D+8.7 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2016 House, NV-4D-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+4.0 | R+2.0 | — |
| Oct 5, 2016 | 2016 House, MN-2D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+1.8 | D+5.8 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 26, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NHD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+0.1 | D+2.9 | R+0.4 |
| Sep 26, 2016 | 2016 President, NHD-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+0.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 21, 2016 | 2016 House, MN-2D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+1.8 | D+3.8 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 20, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-3D-ALIGNED | D+17 | D+11.7 | D+5.3 | R+4.0 |
| Sep 20, 2014 | 2014 House, CA-10D-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+12.3 | D+4.3 | — |
| Sep 16, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-11D-ALIGNED | Even | R+6.2 | D+6.2 | R+5.3 |
| Sep 9, 2014 | 2014 House, NJ-3D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+9.6 | D+6.6 | D+5.0 |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 2012 Senate, NMD-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+5.7 | D+4.3 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 House, NY-25D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+18.4 | R+8.4 | R+10.1 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-17D-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+6.6 | R+2.6 | R+9.2 |
| Oct 6, 2012 | 2012 Senate, NMD-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+5.7 | D+6.3 | D+3.5 |
| Sep 25, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-17D-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+6.6 | R+8.6 | R+9.2 |
| Sep 25, 2012 | 2012 Senate, NMD-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+5.7 | D+2.3 | D+3.5 |
| Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-26D-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+10.6 | R+1.6 | R+6.2 |
| Sep 9, 2012 | 2012 House, AZ-9D-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+4.1 | R+0.1 | R+3.0 |
| Sep 8, 2010 | 2010 House, KS-4D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+22.3 | D+20.3 | D+9.3 |