The governors
Thirty-six states elect governors this year. Democrats now hold 24 governorships and Republicans 26; 6 Democratic and 8 Republican governors are not on the ballot. Voters split their tickets for governor far more than for Congress, so state partisanship explains much less here, and races without polls carry honest, wide intervals.
| If… | Democratic governors |
|---|---|
| No direction assumed (still carries the usual uncertainty) | 26.7 |
| Polls overstate Democrats as they did, on average, in 2016–24 (5.8 points) | 21.3 |
| Polls understate Democrats by the same amount (5.8 points) | 32.0 |
“No direction assumed” does not mean the polls are assumed to be exactly right: every row above, including that one, already carries the historical size of past misses as uncertainty (see Uncertainty) — the win probabilities and seat ranges everywhere on this page are built from that spread. It means only that the model does not bet on which direction the next miss runs, unlike the two rows below it. From 2016 through 2024 the projections this method would have made ran too Democratic on average; before that they ran about even, and in the 2025 governor's races the polls missed the other way. These rows show what a repeat of that pattern, or its mirror image, would mean on top of the uncertainty already built in.
All 36 races
Fundraising is not an input for governors: state campaign-finance data is not in the FEC files the federal races use.
Every race, sortable
| Candidates | Rating | Cook | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | Green v. Cordery | SAFE D | D+29.4 | 96% D | — | — | D+29.4 | D+25 | Safe D |
| Maryland | Moore v. Cox | SAFE D | D+26.1 | >99% D | D+26.1 | 2 | D+34.3 | D+30 | Safe D |
| Rhode Island | Foulkes v. Guckian | SAFE D | D+24.5 | >99% D | D+24.5 | 6 | D+11.0 | D+15 | Safe D |
| Pennsylvania | Shapiro v. Garrity | SAFE D | D+21.6 | >99% D | D+21.6 | 23 | D+22.0 | Even | Safe D |
| California | Becerra v. Hilton | SAFE D | D+21.2 | >99% D | D+21.2 | 10 | D+14.7 | D+22 | Safe D |
| Massachusetts | Healey v. Minogue | SAFE D | D+19.5 | >99% D | D+19.5 | 10 | D+30.3 | D+27 | Safe D |
| Illinois | Pritzker v. Bailey | SAFE D | D+16.9 | 98% D | D+16.9 | 2 | D+20.2 | D+12 | Safe D |
| Connecticut | Lamont v. Fazio | SAFE D | D+14.4 | 99% D | D+14.4 | 8 | D+19.6 | D+16 | Safe D |
| Maine | Pingree v. Charles | SAFE D | D+11.9 | 98% D | D+11.9 | 14 | D+6.9 | D+8 | Safe D |
| New York | Hochul v. Blakeman | SAFE D | D+11.6 | 98% D | D+11.6 | 26 | D+14.6 | D+14 | Safe D |
| Colorado | Weiser v. Marx | LEAN D | D+9.3 | 73% D | — | — | D+9.3 | D+12 | Safe D |
| Minnesota | Klobuchar v. Demuth | LIKELY D | D+8.2 | 93% D | D+8.2 | 8 | D+5.3 | D+6 | Safe D |
| Iowa | Sand v. Lahn | LIKELY D | D+7.8 | 93% D | D+7.8 | 21 | R+5.1 | R+12 | Lean D |
| Michigan | Benson v. James | LIKELY D | D+7.5 | 93% D | D+7.5 | 38 | D+1.9 | Even | Lean D |
| Arizona | Hobbs v. Biggs | LIKELY D | D+7.1 | 91% D | D+7.1 | 21 | D+11.8 | R+4 | Lean D |
| Alaska | Kreiss-Tomkins v. Wilson | LIKELY D | D+7.0 | 88% D | D+7.0 | 3 | R+5.1 | R+12 | Lean R |
| New Mexico | Haaland v. Hull | LIKELY D | D+6.9 | 88% D | D+6.9 | 4 | D+6.3 | D+7 | Safe D |
| Ohio | Acton v. Ramaswamy | LEAN D | D+3.5 | 75% D | D+3.5 | 23 | R+3.9 | R+10 | Tossup |
| Wisconsin | Crowley v. Tiffany | LEAN D | D+3.0 | 71% D | D+3.0 | 8 | D+2.2 | D+1 | Tossup |
| Oregon | Kotek v. Drazan | TOSS-UP | D+0.7 | 55% D | D+0.7 | 7 | D+17.3 | D+16 | Lean D |
| Georgia | Bottoms v. Jackson | TOSS-UP | R+0.7 | 55% R | R+0.7 | 13 | D+1.4 | R+1 | Tossup |
| Nevada | Ford v. Lombardo | LEAN R | R+2.1 | 66% R | R+2.1 | 13 | R+5.5 | R+2 | Tossup |
| Texas | Hinojosa v. Abbott | LEAN R | R+2.7 | 71% R | R+2.7 | 42 | R+13.3 | R+12 | Likely R |
| Vermont | Janoo v. Scott | LEAN R | R+3.2 | 72% R | R+3.2 | 5 | R+31.0 | D+33 | Safe R |
| Florida | Jolly v. Donalds | LEAN R | R+3.9 | 78% R | R+3.9 | 27 | R+5.1 | R+12 | Likely R |
| Kansas | Holscher v. Masterson | LEAN R | R+4.3 | 79% R | R+4.3 | 7 | R+6.8 | R+15 | Lean R |
| Arkansas | Love v. Sanders | LEAN R | R+5.2 | 76% R | R+5.2 | 1 | R+22.3 | R+29 | Safe R |
| Nebraska | Walz v. Pillen | LIKELY R | R+5.5 | 85% R | R+5.5 | 9 | R+17.9 | R+19 | Safe R |
| New Hampshire | Warmington v. Ayotte | SAFE R | R+10.2 | 96% R | R+10.2 | 11 | R+9.2 | D+4 | Likely R |
| South Carolina | Johnson v. Wilson | SAFE R | R+10.4 | 95% R | R+10.4 | 3 | R+7.9 | R+16 | Safe R |
| Alabama | Jones v. Tuberville | SAFE R | R+11.9 | 96% R | R+11.9 | 3 | R+15.4 | R+29 | Safe R |
| Idaho | Pickens v. Little | SAFE R | R+14.9 | 98% R | R+14.9 | 2 | R+31.6 | R+35 | Safe R |
| Tennessee | Green v. Blackburn | SAFE R | R+15.9 | 99% R | R+15.9 | 3 | R+14.9 | R+28 | Safe R |
| Oklahoma | Munson v. Mazzei | LIKELY R | R+17.6 | 87% R | — | — | R+17.6 | R+33 | Safe R |
| South Dakota | Ahlers v. Rhoden | LIKELY R | R+22.8 | 93% R | — | — | R+22.8 | R+28 | Safe R |
| Wyoming | Casner v. Barlow | LIKELY R | R+24.5 | 94% R | — | — | R+24.5 | R+44 | Safe R |
Bold surname = incumbent running. Settled = only one major party is on the November ballot. Lean = presidential vote relative to the nation. Cook = Cook Political Report rating as listed on Wikipedia, shown for comparison only; it is not an input.