House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research

Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2008 to 2025

Versus the field
−0.27
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.61; 40% own record)
Average miss
4.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
136
69 races · 37 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
200819.5−0.2R+0.2
2012132.8−0.7D+1.5
2014206.1+0.1R+0.4
2016192.9−1.8R+2.7
201773.1−2.3D+2.2
2018264.5−0.5R+0.1
2020116.0+0.7D+1.3
202136.3+2.7R+1.3
2022182.4−1.3D+1.0
2024153.1−0.3D+0.1
202537.7−1.7D+1.8
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 14, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Aug 10, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsD+2
Aug 10, 2026Governor MEHannah Pingree v. Bobby CharlesD+11
Aug 10, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+8
Aug 10, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyR+2
Aug 10, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+5
Aug 10, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersR+4
Jul 27, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+1
Jul 27, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+9
Jul 27, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+3
Jul 20, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Jun 27, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+9
Jun 27, 2026Governor GAKeisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick JacksonD+5
Jun 27, 2026Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+13
Jun 27, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonD+4
Jun 27, 2026Governor MEHannah Pingree v. Bobby CharlesD+11
Jun 1, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+8
Jun 1, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+1
Apr 20, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Jan 26, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Dec 15, 2025Generic ballotD+6
Apr 21, 2025Generic ballotD+7
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 28, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+7D+14.4R+7.4R+9.5
Oct 14, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+5D+14.4R+9.4R+9.5
Sep 28, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+8D+14.4R+6.4R+9.5
Oct 28, 20242024 President, PAR+1R+1.7D+1.2D+2.6
Oct 28, 20242024 President, MID+1R+1.4D+2.4D+3.7
Oct 28, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.7D+2.6
Oct 28, 20242024 Governor, NCD+16D+14.8D+1.2R+1.0
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, MID+4D+0.3D+3.7D+4.2
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, PAD+2R+0.2D+2.2D+4.7
Oct 14, 20242024 PresidentR+2R+1.5R+0.5D+3.8
Sep 24, 20242024 Senate, AZD+13D+2.4D+10.6D+4.7
Sep 24, 20242024 President, PAR+1R+1.7D+1.2D+2.6
Sep 24, 20242024 Senate, PAD+9R+0.2D+9.2D+4.7
Sep 24, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.7D+2.6
Sep 24, 20242024 President, GAD+3R+2.2D+4.7D+1.5
Sep 24, 20242024 President, AZR+3R+5.5D+2.5D+4.8
Sep 24, 20242024 Governor, NCD+15D+14.8D+0.2R+1.0
Sep 16, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.8
Oct 30, 20222022 Senate, AZD+2D+4.9R+2.9R+0.9
Oct 30, 20222022 Governor, AZR+1D+0.7R+1.7R+1.7
Oct 30, 20222022 Governor, GAR+6R+7.5D+1.5D+0.4
Oct 30, 20222022 Governor, PAD+16D+14.8D+1.2R+4.0
Oct 30, 20222022 Governor, WIR+1D+3.4R+4.4R+3.1
Oct 30, 20222022 Senate, PAD+3D+4.9R+1.9R+2.7
Oct 30, 20222022 Senate, GAD+1D+1.0EvenD+0.1
Oct 30, 20222022 Senate, WIR+3R+1.0R+2.0R+1.8
Oct 12, 20222022 Generic ballotD+3R+2.6D+5.6D+2.9
Sep 26, 20222022 Senate, GAD+5D+1.0D+4.0D+0.1
Sep 26, 20222022 Senate, AZD+6D+4.9D+1.1R+0.9
Sep 26, 20222022 Senate, PAD+4D+4.9R+0.9R+2.7
Sep 26, 20222022 Governor, WIEvenD+3.4R+3.4R+3.1
Sep 26, 20222022 Senate, WIR+4R+1.0R+3.0R+1.8
Sep 26, 20222022 Governor, PAD+11D+14.8R+3.8R+4.0
Sep 26, 20222022 Governor, GAR+7R+7.5D+0.5D+0.4
Sep 26, 20222022 Governor, AZD+1D+0.7D+0.3R+1.7
Sep 12, 20222022 Generic ballotD+3R+2.6D+5.6D+2.9
Oct 27, 20212021 Governor, VAR+8R+1.9R+6.1D+3.5
Oct 13, 20212021 Governor, VAD+5R+1.9D+6.9D+3.5
Sep 29, 20212021 Governor, VAD+4R+1.9D+5.9D+3.5
Oct 29, 20202020 PresidentD+8D+4.4D+3.6D+4.4
Oct 20, 20202020 Senate, MID+8D+1.7D+6.3D+5.4
Oct 20, 20202020 President, WID+5D+0.6D+4.4D+6.3
Oct 20, 20202020 President, PAD+5D+1.2D+3.8D+4.1
Oct 20, 20202020 President, OHR+3R+8.0D+5.0D+6.1
Oct 20, 20202020 President, MID+12D+2.8D+9.2D+4.3
Oct 6, 20202020 PresidentD+10D+4.4D+5.6D+4.4
Sep 23, 20202020 President, PAD+7D+1.2D+5.8D+4.1
Sep 23, 20202020 President, OHD+5R+8.0D+13.0D+6.1
Sep 23, 20202020 President, NVD+11D+2.4D+8.6D+2.0
Sep 10, 20202020 PresidentD+5D+4.4D+0.6D+4.4
Oct 30, 20182018 House, ND-1R+22R+24.6D+2.6D+2.1
Oct 30, 20182018 Governor, TNR+17R+21.0D+4.0D+6.5
Oct 30, 20182018 Senate, NDR+9R+10.8D+1.8D+1.8
Oct 30, 20182018 Senate, TNR+9R+10.8D+1.8D+7.0
Oct 30, 20182018 Senate, MOEvenR+5.8D+5.8D+4.9
Oct 30, 20182018 Senate, IND+7R+5.9D+12.9D+6.8
Oct 29, 20182018 Governor, AZR+18R+14.2R+3.8D+2.4
Oct 29, 20182018 Senate, AZEvenD+2.3R+2.3R+1.2
Oct 16, 20182018 Generic ballotD+7D+8.5R+1.5R+0.9
Oct 2, 20182018 Senate, MOEvenR+5.8D+5.8D+4.9