House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Quantus Insights

Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2024 to 2025 · 62% of scored polls were for a party or campaign

Versus the field
−0.16
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.47; 9% own record)
Average miss
4.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
13
9 races · 75 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
202481.8−1.1D+1.5
202559.0+0.7R+0.8
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 16, 2026Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+4
Sep 15, 2026Senate MTAlani Bankhead v. Kurt AlmeR+21
Sep 15, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsEven
Sep 10, 2026Senate MNPeggy Flanagan v. Michele TafoyaD+4
Sep 10, 2026Senate FLAngie Nixon v. Ashley MoodyR+7
Aug 28, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Aug 24, 2026OH-1Greg Landsman v. Eric ConroyD+3
Aug 17, 2026Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+6
Aug 4, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Aug 1, 2026Governor GAKeisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick JacksonD+2
Jul 7, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Jun 30, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+1
Jun 17, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jun 4, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+8
Jun 4, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonR+2
Jun 2, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Apr 23, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Apr 1, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+5
Mar 26, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Mar 18, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Mar 14, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedR+1
Mar 14, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+1
Mar 3, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Feb 12, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Jan 22, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Dec 16, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Dec 5, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Nov 12, 2025Generic ballotD+5
Oct 8, 2025Generic ballotR+1
Sep 12, 2025Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsEven
Aug 13, 2025Generic ballotD+3
Aug 7, 2025Governor TNJerri Green v. Marsha BlackburnR+21
Jul 16, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Jun 25, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Jun 11, 2025Generic ballotEven
Jun 4, 2025Generic ballotD+1
May 7, 2025Generic ballotEven
Mar 27, 2025Generic ballotR+1
Mar 19, 2025Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuR+9
Feb 12, 2025Generic ballotR+4
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 3, 20252025-GOV-VA D+9D+15.4R+6.7R+6.3
Oct 27, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+3D+14.4R+11.4R+9.5
Oct 20, 20252025-GOV-VA D+5D+15.4R+10.4R+6.3
Sep 30, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+2D+14.4R+12.1R+9.5
Sep 4, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+10D+14.4R+4.4R+9.5
Oct 30, 20242024 PresidentR-ALIGNEDR+1R+1.5D+0.7D+3.7
Oct 29, 20242024 President, WIR-ALIGNEDEvenR+0.9D+0.7D+2.9
Oct 28, 20242024 President, MIR-ALIGNEDD+1R+1.4D+2.1D+3.6
Oct 24, 20242024 President, VAR-ALIGNEDD+1D+5.8R+4.7D+1.4
Oct 20, 20242024 President, PAR-ALIGNEDR+2R+1.7R+0.4D+2.5
Oct 17, 20242024 PresidentR-ALIGNEDD+1R+1.5D+2.3D+3.7
Sep 25, 20242024 President, NVR-ALIGNEDR+1R+3.1D+2.0D+3.6
Sep 12, 20242024 President, NCR-ALIGNEDR+2R+3.2D+1.6D+2.5