House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

TIPP Insights

Method: live phone · scored polls from 2000 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.16
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.81; 21% own record)
Average miss
2.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
100
19 races · 38 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
200072.9−0.3R+1.4
2002111.7+6.2D+6.7
200491.5−0.9D+0.2
200893.3−0.4R+0.5
201263.0+0.6R+1.4
201641.9−1.6R+5.0
201823.5+0.9R+2.1
2020261.8−2.8R+3.1
202224.1+0.1D+1.3
2024342.5−0.7R+1.0
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 2, 2026Governor MNAmy Klobuchar v. Lisa DemuthD+10
Sep 2, 2026Senate MNPeggy Flanagan v. Michele TafoyaD+2
Aug 18, 2026Governor WIDavid Crowley v. Tom TiffanyD+3
Aug 10, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+16
Aug 10, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+3
May 28, 2026Generic ballotD+5
May 23, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+11
May 23, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+1
Apr 24, 2026Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+11
Mar 19, 2026Governor WIDavid Crowley v. Tom TiffanyD+2
Feb 27, 2026Generic ballotD+1
Jan 29, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jan 15, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+24
Aug 1, 2025Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+1
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 4, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.4D+3.7
Nov 3, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.2D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 PresidentR+1R+1.5D+0.5D+3.7
Nov 1, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.4D+3.7
Oct 31, 20242024 PresidentR+1R+1.5D+0.6D+3.7
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, WID+2D+0.8D+1.2D+3.0
Oct 30, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.7
Oct 30, 20242024 President, WID+1R+0.9D+1.4D+3.0
Oct 29, 20242024 PresidentD+1R+1.5D+2.4D+3.7
Oct 28, 20242024 PresidentD+1R+1.5D+2.5D+3.7
Oct 27, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.7
Oct 26, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.7
Oct 25, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.7
Oct 24, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 23, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 22, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 21, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.7
Oct 20, 20242024 PresidentR+1R+1.5D+0.5D+3.7
Oct 19, 20242024 PresidentR+2R+1.5R+0.5D+3.7
Oct 18, 20242024 PresidentD+1R+1.5D+2.5D+3.7
Oct 17, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 16, 20242024 President, GAEvenR+2.2D+2.3D+1.6
Oct 16, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 15, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 14, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 13, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 9, 20242024 President, PAR+1R+1.7D+0.7D+2.6
Oct 9, 20242024 Senate, PAD+4R+0.2D+4.2D+4.7
Oct 4, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Sep 25, 20242024 President, NVD+1R+3.1D+4.3D+3.6
Sep 18, 20242024 President, GAEvenR+2.2D+1.9D+1.6
Sep 13, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Sep 13, 20242024 President, NCR+3R+3.2D+0.2D+2.6
Sep 5, 20242024 President, AZEvenR+5.5D+5.7D+4.7
Oct 7, 20222022 Generic ballotD+1R+2.6D+3.6D+2.9
Sep 9, 20222022 Generic ballotD+2R+2.6D+4.6D+2.9
Nov 2, 20202020 PresidentD+4D+4.4EvenD+4.4
Nov 1, 20202020 PresidentD+4D+4.4R+0.7D+4.4
Oct 31, 20202020 PresidentD+5D+4.4D+1.0D+4.4
Oct 30, 20202020 PresidentD+5D+4.4D+0.9D+4.4
Oct 29, 20202020 PresidentD+6D+4.4D+1.7D+4.4
Oct 28, 20202020 PresidentD+5D+4.4D+0.7D+4.4
Oct 27, 20202020 PresidentD+5D+4.4D+0.4D+4.4
Oct 26, 20202020 PresidentD+5D+4.4D+0.1D+4.4
Oct 25, 20202020 PresidentD+7D+4.4D+2.5D+4.4
Oct 24, 20202020 PresidentD+7D+4.4D+2.6D+4.4
Oct 23, 20202020 PresidentD+6D+4.4D+1.6D+4.4
Oct 22, 20202020 PresidentD+4D+4.4R+0.1D+4.4
Oct 21, 20202020 PresidentD+5D+4.4D+0.2D+4.4
Oct 20, 20202020 PresidentD+2D+4.4R+2.2D+4.4
Oct 19, 20202020 PresidentD+3D+4.4R+1.8D+4.4
Oct 18, 20202020 PresidentD+6D+4.4D+1.3D+4.4
Oct 17, 20202020 PresidentD+5D+4.4D+1.0D+4.4
Oct 16, 20202020 PresidentD+7D+4.4D+2.9D+4.4
Oct 15, 20202020 PresidentD+6D+4.4D+1.3D+4.4
Oct 14, 20202020 PresidentD+8D+4.4D+3.5D+4.4
Oct 13, 20202020 PresidentD+8D+4.4D+3.5D+4.4
Oct 12, 20202020 PresidentD+9D+4.4D+4.4D+4.4
Oct 11, 20202020 PresidentD+9D+4.4D+5.1D+4.4
Oct 1, 20202020 PresidentD+3D+4.4R+1.7D+4.4