Pollster record · how records are scored
Rasmussen Reports
Method: ivr · scored polls from 2010 to 2025
Versus the field
−0.06
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.13; 49% own record)
Average miss
4.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.6
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
263
107 races · 11 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1 | 22.1 | +14.5 | — |
| 2012 | 36 | 3.7 | +0.3 | R+1.4 |
| 2013 | 9 | 5.0 | −0.4 | D+3.2 |
| 2014 | 80 | 5.5 | +0.0 | R+0.1 |
| 2016 | 68 | 5.1 | +0.3 | R+0.1 |
| 2017 | 2 | 4.9 | +1.3 | R+2.0 |
| 2018 | 16 | 4.4 | +0.7 | R+2.6 |
| 2020 | 35 | 3.1 | −1.7 | R+3.6 |
| 2022 | 15 | 3.4 | −0.2 | R+3.8 |
| 2025 | 1 | 8.4 | −1.2 | D+1.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Governor GA | Keisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick Jackson | R+3 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Senate GA | Jon Ossoff v. Mike Collins | D+9 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | D+5 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Senate ME | Troy Jackson v. Susan Collins | D+1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Senate NH | Chris Pappas v. John E. Sununu | D+11 |
| May 20, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+6 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+6 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+4 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ | D+6 | D+14.4 | R+8.4 | R+9.5 |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+5 | R+2.6 | R+2.4 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+7 | R+2.6 | R+4.4 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | R+5 | D+1.0 | R+6.0 | D+0.4 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+10 | R+7.5 | R+2.5 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+2 | D+4.9 | R+2.9 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+3 | D+14.8 | R+11.8 | R+3.5 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NVR-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+0.8 | R+5.8 | R+0.6 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NVR-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+1.5 | R+3.5 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+7 | R+2.6 | R+4.4 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 29, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+1 | R+2.6 | D+1.6 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+2 | R+2.6 | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+1 | R+2.6 | D+1.6 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 8, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | D+3.0 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, OH | R+4 | R+8.0 | D+4.0 | D+6.3 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President | D+1 | D+4.4 | R+3.4 | D+4.4 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+3 | D+1.2 | D+1.8 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 31, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+1 | R+3.4 | D+4.4 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | R+1 | R+1.3 | D+0.3 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | R+4 | D+0.3 | R+4.3 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+3 | R+1.7 | D+4.7 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+5 | D+2.3 | D+2.7 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 President | D+3 | D+4.4 | R+1.4 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President | D+1 | D+4.4 | R+3.4 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 President | R+1 | D+4.4 | R+5.4 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 President | D+2 | D+4.4 | R+2.4 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 President | R+1 | D+4.4 | R+5.4 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 21, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 21, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | R+1 | R+1.3 | D+0.3 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 21, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | R+4 | R+3.4 | R+0.6 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President | D+3 | D+4.4 | R+1.4 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | D+2 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+3 | D+1.2 | D+1.8 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, OH | D+1 | R+8.0 | D+9.0 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+2 | D+2.3 | R+0.3 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 13, 2020 | 2020 President | D+5 | D+4.4 | D+0.6 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 6, 2020 | 2020 President | D+12 | D+4.4 | D+7.6 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 6, 2020 | 2020 Senate, TX | R+9 | R+9.6 | D+0.6 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 6, 2020 | 2020 President, TX | R+7 | R+5.6 | R+1.4 | D+3.1 |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 2020 President | D+8 | D+4.4 | D+3.6 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 President, NV | D+1 | D+2.4 | R+1.4 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 President, NH | D+14 | D+7.4 | D+6.6 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 22, 2020 | 2020 President | D+1 | D+4.4 | R+3.4 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 President | Even | D+4.4 | R+4.9 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 8, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | R+1 | R+1.3 | D+0.6 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 8, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+3 | R+1.7 | D+4.5 | D+6.2 |
| Sep 8, 2020 | 2020 President | D+2 | D+4.4 | R+2.7 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | D+9 | D+2.8 | D+5.8 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MI | D+7 | D+1.7 | D+5.8 | D+5.4 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | R+1 | D+8.5 | R+9.5 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+3 | D+8.5 | R+5.5 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+3 | D+8.5 | R+5.5 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+1 | D+8.5 | R+7.5 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | Even | D+8.5 | R+8.5 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+5 | D+8.5 | R+3.5 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+3 | D+8.5 | R+5.5 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 17, 2018 | 2018 House, KY-6 | Even | R+3.2 | D+3.2 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+5 | D+8.5 | R+3.5 | R+0.8 |