House Effects
Monday, November 2, 20261 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

AtlasIntel

Method: online opt-in · scored polls from 2020 to 2025

Versus the field
−0.36
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.21; 35% own record)
Average miss
1.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+1.5
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
111
40 races · 16 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2020142.2−1.4R+1.6
202222.3−0.4R+4.0
2024931.7−1.4R+3.0
2025210.1+2.6R+2.3
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Nov 1, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottD+1
Nov 1, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+6
May 7, 2026Generic ballotD+15
Dec 19, 2025Generic ballotD+16
Sep 16, 2025Generic ballotD+8
Jul 18, 2025Generic ballotD+9
May 27, 2025Generic ballotD+9
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 30, 20252025-GOV-VA D+9D+15.4R+6.7R+6.4
Oct 30, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+1D+14.4R+13.5R+9.3
Nov 4, 20242024 President, MND+2D+4.2R+2.2D+2.1
Nov 4, 20242024 President, AZR+5R+5.5D+0.4D+4.8
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, MND+11D+15.7R+4.3R+2.9
Nov 4, 20242024 President, VAD+5D+5.8R+0.4D+1.4
Nov 4, 20242024 President, GAR+1R+2.2D+1.4D+1.6
Nov 4, 20242024 PresidentR+1R+1.5D+0.3D+3.8
Nov 4, 20242024 President, MIR+2R+1.4R+0.2D+3.8
Nov 4, 20242024 President, MTR+20R+19.9R+0.3D+2.3
Nov 4, 20242024 Governor, NCD+17D+14.8D+1.7R+0.9
Nov 4, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.1D+2.6
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, MTR+11R+7.1R+3.5D+3.2
Nov 4, 20242024 President, TXR+10R+13.7D+3.5D+7.4
Nov 4, 20242024 President, PAR+1R+1.7D+0.9D+2.6
Nov 4, 20242024 President, NVR+3R+3.1EvenD+3.7
Nov 4, 20242024 President, OHR+9R+11.2D+2.5D+4.3
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, OHR+3R+3.6D+0.6D+4.3
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, NVD+6D+1.6D+3.9D+6.1
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, AZR+1D+2.4R+3.0D+5.1
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, VAD+9D+8.9R+0.3D+1.4
Nov 4, 20242024 President, WIR+1R+0.9R+0.2D+3.0
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, TXR+7R+8.5D+1.5D+4.7
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, WID+1D+0.8D+0.1D+3.0
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, PAD+3R+0.2D+2.9D+4.8
Nov 4, 20242024 Senate, MID+1D+0.3D+0.8D+4.3
Nov 2, 20242024 President, MIR+2R+1.4R+0.1D+3.8
Nov 2, 20242024 Governor, NCD+11D+14.8R+3.7R+0.9
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NCR+4R+3.2R+0.3D+2.6
Nov 2, 20242024 PresidentR+2R+1.5R+0.2D+3.8
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, PAD+2R+0.2D+2.3D+4.8
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, AZR+2D+2.4R+4.1D+5.1
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, MID+1D+0.3D+1.0D+4.3
Nov 2, 20242024 President, GAR+2R+2.2EvenD+1.6
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NVR+6R+3.1R+2.4D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 President, AZR+7R+5.5R+1.1D+4.8
Nov 2, 20242024 Senate, WID+1D+0.8R+0.3D+3.0
Nov 2, 20242024 President, PAR+2R+1.7EvenD+2.6
Nov 2, 20242024 President, WIR+1R+0.9R+0.3D+3.0
Oct 31, 20242024 PresidentR+2R+1.5R+0.2D+3.8
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, WIEvenD+0.8R+0.6D+3.0
Oct 31, 20242024 President, NVR+4R+3.1R+0.5D+3.7
Oct 31, 20242024 President, NCR+4R+3.2R+0.6D+2.6
Oct 31, 20242024 Governor, NCD+9D+14.8R+5.4R+0.9
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, MID+3D+0.3D+2.9D+4.3
Oct 31, 20242024 President, MIR+1R+1.4D+0.7D+3.8
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, NVD+2D+1.6D+0.3D+6.1
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, PAD+4R+0.2D+3.8D+4.8
Oct 31, 20242024 President, GAR+2R+2.2D+0.2D+1.6
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, AZR+1D+2.4R+3.1D+5.1
Oct 31, 20242024 President, AZR+5R+5.5D+1.0D+4.8
Oct 31, 20242024 President, WIEvenR+0.9D+0.8D+3.0
Oct 31, 20242024 President, PAR+1R+1.7D+0.4D+2.6
Oct 29, 20242024 PresidentR+2R+1.5R+0.6D+3.8
Oct 29, 20242024 Senate, AZD+1D+2.4R+1.9D+5.1
Oct 29, 20242024 President, PAR+2R+1.7R+0.7D+2.6
Oct 29, 20242024 President, WIR+1R+0.9D+0.3D+3.0
Oct 29, 20242024 Senate, NVD+5D+1.6D+3.1D+6.1
Oct 29, 20242024 President, AZR+4R+5.5D+1.7D+4.8
Oct 29, 20242024 President, MIR+1R+1.4D+0.2D+3.8