House Effects
Monday, November 2, 20261 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Concord Public Opinion Partners

Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2023 to 2025 · 100% of scored polls were for a party or campaign

Versus the field
−0.10
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.90; 3% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
3.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
3
3 races · 15 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
202312.9−0.4R+2.0
202412.2−0.8R+2.7
202515.4−4.1D+0.2
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Oct 26, 2026Governor SDDan Ahlers v. Larry RhodenR+9
Oct 26, 2026Senate SDBrian Bengs v. Mike RoundsD+2
Oct 24, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+10
Oct 24, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+4
Oct 23, 2026Senate MTAlani Bankhead v. Kurt AlmeR+28
Oct 18, 2026Governor NELynne Walz v. Jim PillenD+3
Oct 18, 2026Senate NEDan Osborn v. Pete RickettsD+7
Oct 8, 2026Governor SDDan Ahlers v. Larry RhodenR+10
Oct 8, 2026Senate MTAlani Bankhead v. Kurt AlmeR+22
Oct 8, 2026Senate SDBrian Bengs v. Mike RoundsD+1
Sep 30, 2026Governor NVAaron Ford v. Joe LombardoR+1
Aug 31, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+12
Aug 31, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+10
Aug 21, 2026Governor NYKathy Hochul v. Bruce BlakemanD+16
Jun 2, 2026Governor GAKeisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick JacksonD+15
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 18, 20252025-GOV-NJ D-ALIGNEDD+9D+14.4R+5.4R+9.5
Nov 3, 20242024 Senate, MDD-ALIGNEDD+14D+11.8D+2.2D+1.0
Nov 2, 20232023 Governor, KYD-ALIGNEDD+8D+5.1D+2.9D+1.1