Pollster record · how records are scored
Tulchin Research
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2010 to 2024 · 87% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.11
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.93; 6% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
4.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
15
13 races · 12 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2 | 3.4 | −3.4 | D+3.3 |
| 2016 | 4 | 4.5 | −2.2 | D+4.7 |
| 2018 | 6 | 3.1 | −2.8 | D+0.7 |
| 2020 | 1 | 13.9 | +6.4 | D+6.0 |
| 2022 | 1 | 1.7 | −4.5 | — |
| 2024 | 1 | 1.8 | −1.4 | R+2.2 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez v. María Elvira Salazar | R+1 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | AL-2 | Shomari Figures v. Rhett Marques | Even |
| Aug 31, 2026 | FL-22 | Pia Dandiya v. Casey Askar | D+2 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Governor OH | Amy Acton v. Vivek Ramaswamy | D+2 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | D+4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | NC-3 | Raymond Smith Jr. v. Greg Murphy | R+3 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | ME-2 | Matt Dunlap v. Paul LePage | D+1 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | VA-2 | Elaine G. Luria v. Jen Kiggans | Even |
| Jun 21, 2026 | CA-22 | Randy Villegas v. David G. Valadao | D+4 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Governor OH | Amy Acton v. Vivek Ramaswamy | D+3 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+5 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | D+4 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 House, CA-45D-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+0.2 | D+1.8 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 3, 2022 | 2022 House, CA-41D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+4.7 | D+1.7 | — |
| Oct 6, 2020 | 2020 House, IL-13D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+8.9 | D+13.9 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-27D-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+4.8 | R+0.8 | R+9.7 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TXD-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-27D-ALIGNED | Even | D+4.8 | R+4.8 | R+9.7 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-39D-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+3.1 | R+2.1 | R+5.1 |
| Oct 1, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-50D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+3.4 | D+2.7 | R+2.6 |
| Sep 26, 2018 | 2018 Governor, VTD-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+14.9 | D+6.9 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-25D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+6.3 | D+4.3 | — |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-7D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+2.3 | D+8.7 | R+3.4 |
| Sep 29, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-49D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+0.5 | D+4.5 | R+5.0 |
| Sep 12, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-7D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+2.3 | D+0.7 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 26, 2010 | 2010 Governor, CA | D+8 | D+12.9 | R+4.9 | R+7.9 |
| Oct 26, 2010 | 2010 Senate, CA | D+8 | D+10.0 | R+2.0 | R+5.6 |