Pollster record · how records are scored
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2016 to 2025
Versus the field
−0.19
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.05; 14% own record)
Average miss
2.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
24
17 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 0.7 | −1.6 | R+0.4 |
| 2017 | 3 | 3.1 | −3.5 | D+5.4 |
| 2018 | 3 | 0.8 | −4.9 | D+5.7 |
| 2020 | 2 | 3.4 | −0.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2021 | 2 | 3.9 | +0.1 | D+0.5 |
| 2024 | 11 | 3.0 | −0.1 | D+0.6 |
| 2025 | 2 | 3.4 | −3.9 | D+3.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+12 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+12 | D+15.4 | R+3.4 | R+6.5 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+12 | D+15.4 | R+3.4 | R+6.5 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Senate, VA | D+13 | D+8.9 | D+4.1 | D+1.0 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 President, VA | D+6 | D+5.8 | D+0.2 | D+1.3 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+3 | R+5.5 | D+2.5 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+3 | R+0.9 | D+3.9 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+2 | R+1.7 | D+3.7 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, NV | Even | R+3.1 | D+3.1 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | R+3 | R+3.2 | D+0.2 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+2 | R+1.4 | D+3.4 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, GA | D+4 | R+2.2 | D+6.2 | D+1.4 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | 2024 President, VA | D+8 | D+5.8 | D+2.2 | D+1.3 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | 2024 Senate, VA | D+12 | D+8.9 | D+3.1 | D+1.0 |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 2021 Governor, VA | D+1 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 13, 2021 | 2021 Governor, VA | D+3 | R+1.9 | D+4.9 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 Senate, VA | D+18 | D+12.1 | D+5.9 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, VA | D+11 | D+10.1 | D+0.9 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-10 | D+11 | D+12.4 | R+1.4 | R+6.0 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-10 | D+13 | D+12.4 | D+0.6 | R+6.0 |
| Oct 5, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-10 | D+12 | D+12.4 | R+0.4 | R+6.0 |
| Nov 29, 2017 | 2017 Senate, AL | D+3 | D+1.6 | D+1.4 | R+3.1 |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2017 Governor, VA | D+5 | D+8.9 | R+3.9 | R+5.9 |
| Sep 30, 2017 | 2017 Governor, VA | D+13 | D+8.9 | D+4.1 | R+5.9 |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 2016 President, VA | D+6 | D+5.3 | D+0.7 | D+1.1 |