House Effects
Sunday, October 11, 202623 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

co/efficient

Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2019 to 2025 · 92% of scored polls were for a party or campaign

Versus the field
+0.07
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.52; 21% own record)
Average miss
5.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
36
32 races · 38 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
201913.5+0.9D+5.4
202063.3−4.0D+1.3
202112.1−1.5R+1.7
2022146.2+2.0D+0.6
202313.1−0.9D+0.1
2024103.6−0.3D+2.9
2025311.0+3.4R+3.8
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Oct 6, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedR+1
Oct 6, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyR+2
Oct 1, 2026SC-1Nancy Lacore v. Jenny Costa HoneycuttR+6
Sep 30, 2026Governor MEHannah Pingree v. Bobby CharlesD+9
Sep 30, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsR+2
Sep 30, 2026Governor NELynne Walz v. Jim PillenR+5
Sep 30, 2026Senate NEDan Osborn v. Pete RickettsR+5
Sep 30, 2026VA-6Beth Macy v. Ben ClineR+30
Sep 25, 2026Governor NYKathy Hochul v. Bruce BlakemanD+7
Sep 23, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+3
Sep 23, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersEven
Sep 17, 2026Senate AKMary Peltola v. Dan SullivanR+2
Sep 17, 2026Governor CTNed Lamont v. Ryan FazioD+7
Sep 16, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+4
Sep 16, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+4
Sep 15, 2026Governor MNAmy Klobuchar v. Lisa DemuthD+2
Sep 15, 2026Senate MNPeggy Flanagan v. Michele TafoyaD+1
Sep 11, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+21
Sep 11, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuEven
Sep 10, 2026Governor KSCindy Holscher v. Ty MastersonR+8
Sep 10, 2026Senate KSAdam Hamilton v. Roger MarshallR+5
Aug 6, 2026OH-7Brian Poindexter v. Max MillerD+14
Jul 30, 2026OH-7Brian Poindexter v. Max MillerD+5
Jul 22, 2026NY-17Cait Conley v. Mike LawlerR+5
Jul 2, 2026Governor NYKathy Hochul v. Bruce BlakemanD+6
Apr 29, 2026WA-3Marie Gluesenkamp Perez v. John BraunR+7
Apr 29, 2026TX-34Vicente Gonzalez v. Eric FloresR+1
Apr 29, 2026NC-1Don Davis v. Laurie BuckhoutEven
Apr 28, 2026NM-2Gabe Vasquez v. Greg CunninghamD+2
Apr 28, 2026ME-2Matt Dunlap v. Paul LePageR+10
Oct 13, 2025Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+3
Sep 12, 2025Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+3
Jun 16, 2025Generic ballotEven
May 9, 2025Generic ballotD+3
Feb 17, 2025Generic ballotR+2
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 27, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+1D+14.4R+13.4R+9.3
Oct 17, 20252025-GOV-VA D+5D+15.4R+10.4R+6.2
Sep 23, 20252025-GOV-VA D+6D+15.4R+9.4R+6.2
Oct 24, 20242024 House, OH-13R-ALIGNEDR+1D+2.2R+3.2—
Oct 8, 20242024 PresidentR-ALIGNEDD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.6
Oct 8, 20242024 Generic ballotR-ALIGNEDR+1R+2.7D+1.7D+3.3
Oct 4, 20242024 House, GA-2R-ALIGNEDD+3D+12.7R+9.7R+5.6
Sep 6, 20242024 Senate, MIR-ALIGNEDD+1D+0.3D+0.7D+4.1
Sep 6, 20242024 President, WIR-ALIGNEDEvenR+0.9D+0.9D+2.9
Sep 6, 20242024 Senate, PAR-ALIGNEDD+9R+0.2D+9.2D+4.5
Sep 6, 20242024 President, MIR-ALIGNEDEvenR+1.4D+1.4D+3.6
Sep 6, 20242024 Senate, WIR-ALIGNEDD+6D+0.8D+5.2D+2.7
Sep 6, 20242024 President, PAR-ALIGNEDR+2R+1.7R+0.3D+2.5
Oct 19, 20232023 Governor, KYR-ALIGNEDD+2D+5.1R+3.1D+0.7
Nov 7, 20222022 Governor, COR-ALIGNEDD+12D+19.4R+7.3R+4.4
Nov 7, 20222022 Senate, COR-ALIGNEDD+8D+14.6R+6.6R+5.7
Oct 28, 20222022 Governor, PAR-ALIGNEDD+10D+14.8R+4.8R+4.0
Oct 28, 20222022 Senate, PAR-ALIGNEDR+3D+4.9R+7.9R+2.6
Oct 26, 20222022 Governor, NHR-ALIGNEDR+18R+15.5R+2.5R+0.1
Oct 26, 20222022 House, NH-1R-ALIGNEDD+4D+8.1R+4.1R+5.4
Oct 26, 20222022 House, NH-2R-ALIGNEDR+1D+11.7R+12.7R+0.7
Oct 26, 20222022 Senate, NHR-ALIGNEDEvenD+9.1R+9.1R+3.4
Oct 25, 20222022 Senate, GAR-ALIGNEDR+3D+1.0R+4.4D+0.2
Oct 25, 20222022 Senate, COR-ALIGNEDD+16D+14.6D+0.9R+5.7
Oct 21, 20222022 Senate, AZR-ALIGNEDD+2D+4.9R+3.1R+1.0
Oct 21, 20222022 Governor, AZR-ALIGNEDR+3D+0.7R+4.0R+1.7
Oct 20, 20222022 Senate, WAR-ALIGNEDD+3D+14.5R+11.5R+6.3
Oct 19, 20222022 Governor, NYR-ALIGNEDR+1D+7.3R+8.3D+1.7
Oct 21, 20212021 Governor, VAR-ALIGNEDR+4R+1.9R+2.1D+3.5
Oct 20, 20202020 Senate, KSR-ALIGNEDR+12R+11.4R+0.6D+7.0
Oct 20, 20202020 President, VTR-ALIGNEDD+30D+35.4R+5.4R+5.4
Oct 20, 20202020 President, KSR-ALIGNEDR+17R+14.7R+2.3D+3.1
Oct 14, 20202020 House, PA-8R-ALIGNEDD+5D+3.6D+1.4—
Sep 16, 20202020 Senate, KSR-ALIGNEDR+4R+11.4D+7.4D+7.0
Sep 16, 20202020 President, KSR-ALIGNEDR+12R+14.7D+2.7D+3.1
Sep 6, 20192019 House, NC-9R-ALIGNEDD+2R+2.0D+3.5D+2.0