Pollster record · how records are scored
co/efficient
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2019 to 2025 · 92% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.07
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.52; 21% own record)
Average miss
5.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
36
32 races · 26 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1 | 3.5 | +0.9 | D+5.4 |
| 2020 | 6 | 3.3 | −4.0 | D+1.3 |
| 2021 | 1 | 2.1 | −1.5 | R+1.7 |
| 2022 | 14 | 6.2 | +2.0 | D+0.6 |
| 2023 | 1 | 3.1 | −0.9 | D+0.1 |
| 2024 | 10 | 3.6 | −0.3 | D+2.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | 11.0 | +3.4 | R+3.8 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | R+2 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Governor IA | Rob Sand v. Zach Lahn | D+4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | R+4 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Senate MN | Peggy Flanagan v. Michele Tafoya | D+1 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Governor MN | Amy Klobuchar v. Lisa Demuth | D+2 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Senate NH | Chris Pappas v. John Sununu | Even |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Governor NH | Cinde Warmington v. Kelly Ayotte | R+21 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Governor KS | Cindy Holscher v. Ty Masterson | R+8 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Senate KS | Adam Hamilton v. Roger Marshall | R+5 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | OH-7 | Brian Poindexter v. Max Miller | D+14 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | OH-7 | Brian Poindexter v. Max Miller | D+5 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | NY-17 | Cait Conley v. Mike Lawler | R+5 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+6 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez v. Eric Flores | R+1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | WA-3 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez v. John Braun | R+7 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | NC-1 | Don Davis v. Laurie Buckhout | Even |
| Apr 28, 2026 | NM-2 | Gabe Vasquez v. Greg Cunningham | D+2 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | ME-2 | Matt Dunlap v. Paul LePage | R+10 |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Senate NH | Chris Pappas v. John Sununu | D+3 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Senate NH | Chris Pappas v. John Sununu | D+3 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Generic ballot | Even | |
| May 9, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+2 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ | D+1 | D+14.4 | R+13.4 | R+9.3 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+5 | D+15.4 | R+10.4 | R+6.2 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+6 | D+15.4 | R+9.4 | R+6.2 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 House, OH-13R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+2.2 | R+3.2 | — |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 PresidentR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+1.5 | D+3.5 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballotR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+2.7 | D+1.7 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 House, GA-2R-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+12.7 | R+9.7 | R+5.6 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+0.3 | D+0.7 | D+4.1 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 2024 President, WIR-ALIGNED | Even | R+0.9 | D+0.9 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PAR-ALIGNED | D+9 | R+0.2 | D+9.2 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 2024 President, MIR-ALIGNED | Even | R+1.4 | D+1.4 | D+3.6 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WIR-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+0.8 | D+5.2 | D+2.7 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 2024 President, PAR-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+1.7 | R+0.3 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2023 Governor, KYR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+5.1 | R+3.1 | D+0.7 |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2022 Governor, COR-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+19.4 | R+7.3 | R+4.4 |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2022 Senate, COR-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+14.6 | R+6.6 | R+5.7 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PAR-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+14.8 | R+4.8 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PAR-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+4.9 | R+7.9 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NHR-ALIGNED | R+18 | R+15.5 | R+2.5 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 House, NH-1R-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+8.1 | R+4.1 | R+5.4 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 House, NH-2R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+11.7 | R+12.7 | R+0.7 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NHR-ALIGNED | Even | D+9.1 | R+9.1 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GAR-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+1.0 | R+4.4 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, COR-ALIGNED | D+16 | D+14.6 | D+0.9 | R+5.7 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+4.9 | R+3.1 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZR-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+0.7 | R+4.0 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WAR-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+14.5 | R+11.5 | R+6.3 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NYR-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+7.3 | R+8.3 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2021 Governor, VAR-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+1.9 | R+2.1 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 Senate, KSR-ALIGNED | R+12 | R+11.4 | R+0.6 | D+7.0 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President, VTR-ALIGNED | D+30 | D+35.4 | R+5.4 | R+5.4 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President, KSR-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+14.7 | R+2.3 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 House, PA-8R-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+3.6 | D+1.4 | — |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 Senate, KSR-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+11.4 | D+7.4 | D+7.0 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 President, KSR-ALIGNED | R+12 | R+14.7 | D+2.7 | D+3.1 |
| Sep 6, 2019 | 2019 House, NC-9R-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+2.0 | D+3.5 | D+2.0 |