Pollster record · how records are scored
Suffolk University
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2002 to 2025
Versus the field
−0.28
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.58; 49% own record)
Average miss
4.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
176
138 races · 5 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 3 | 7.7 | +1.2 | D+1.0 |
| 2004 | 3 | 4.7 | −0.4 | D+2.1 |
| 2006 | 4 | 4.5 | −1.2 | R+4.5 |
| 2008 | 18 | 4.8 | −0.6 | D+0.4 |
| 2009 | 1 | 12.6 | +9.2 | D+10.1 |
| 2010 | 18 | 4.1 | −1.2 | D+3.9 |
| 2012 | 14 | 4.7 | +0.0 | D+2.2 |
| 2013 | 3 | 3.4 | −0.4 | D+1.7 |
| 2014 | 19 | 5.2 | +0.2 | D+1.0 |
| 2016 | 18 | 4.2 | −0.8 | R+0.8 |
| 2017 | 4 | 5.1 | +0.9 | D+0.5 |
| 2018 | 13 | 4.1 | −0.5 | D+2.0 |
| 2020 | 18 | 5.1 | −0.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2021 | 1 | 2.3 | −1.1 | R+1.2 |
| 2022 | 21 | 4.2 | −0.9 | D+0.4 |
| 2024 | 16 | 2.6 | −1.0 | R+1.2 |
| 2025 | 2 | 8.6 | +0.8 | R+0.7 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Governor IA | Rob Sand v. Zach Lahn | D+4 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | R+5 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Governor MA | Maura Healey v. Mike Minogue | D+25 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Senate MA | Ed Markey v. John Deaton | D+25 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Senate MA | Ed Markey v. John Deaton | D+23 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ | D+4 | D+14.4 | R+10.4 | R+9.4 |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+9 | D+15.4 | R+6.8 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+4 | R+0.2 | D+3.8 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | Even | R+1.4 | D+1.0 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+2 | D+0.3 | D+1.5 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | R+1 | R+0.9 | R+0.5 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+1 | D+0.8 | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 President | D+1 | R+1.5 | D+2.4 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | D+1 | R+2.7 | D+4.0 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | 2024 President, MA | D+29 | D+25.2 | D+3.8 | D+2.7 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MA | D+24 | D+19.8 | D+3.8 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 2024 President, AZ | R+6 | R+5.5 | R+0.5 | D+4.8 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZ | D+6 | D+2.4 | D+3.6 | D+4.9 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+2 | R+1.4 | D+3.6 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+2 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+3 | R+1.7 | D+4.7 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+4 | R+0.2 | D+4.4 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+2 | D+4.9 | R+3.1 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+12 | D+14.8 | R+2.8 | R+3.9 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NV | D+1 | D+0.8 | D+0.2 | R+0.7 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NV | Even | R+1.5 | D+1.1 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+5 | R+2.6 | R+1.9 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MA | D+23 | D+29.1 | R+6.1 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OH | R+2 | R+6.1 | D+4.1 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OH | R+18 | R+25.0 | D+7.0 | D+6.0 |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NV | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+0.9 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NV | D+2 | D+0.8 | D+1.2 | R+0.7 |
| Oct 4, 2022 | 2022 House, RI-2 | R+9 | D+3.7 | R+12.2 | R+9.3 |
| Oct 4, 2022 | 2022 Governor, RI | D+10 | D+19.1 | R+8.9 | R+6.1 |
| Sep 30, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+11 | D+14.8 | R+3.4 | R+3.9 |
| Sep 30, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+6 | D+4.9 | D+1.5 | R+2.7 |
| Sep 26, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NH | D+8 | D+9.1 | R+0.7 | R+3.8 |
| Sep 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NH | R+17 | R+15.5 | R+1.5 | D+0.2 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+7 | D+4.9 | D+1.9 | R+1.0 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | D+1 | D+0.7 | D+0.1 | R+1.7 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+7 | R+19.4 | D+12.6 | D+9.9 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+4 | R+16.4 | D+12.4 | D+9.7 |
| Sep 13, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MA | D+25 | D+29.1 | R+3.7 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2021 Governor, VA | Even | R+1.9 | D+2.3 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+10 | D+3.0 | D+7.1 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 President | D+7 | D+4.4 | D+2.6 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+6 | D+1.2 | D+5.0 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 President, NH | D+10 | D+7.4 | D+2.8 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NH | R+24 | R+31.8 | D+7.6 | D+13.3 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NH | D+14 | D+15.6 | R+1.2 | Even |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | Even | R+3.4 | D+3.4 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+9 | D+2.3 | D+6.7 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 30, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | D+4 | D+0.3 | D+3.7 | D+2.3 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 President, MN | D+6 | D+7.1 | R+0.7 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 24, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MN | D+10 | D+5.2 | D+4.8 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 Senate, ME | D+6 | R+8.6 | D+14.7 | D+13.0 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 President, ME | D+12 | D+9.1 | D+3.1 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 President, Maine CD-1 | D+22 | D+23.1 | R+1.4 | R+0.2 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 President, Maine CD-2 | D+1 | R+7.4 | D+8.7 | D+9.7 |
| Sep 14, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+4 | R+1.3 | D+5.1 | D+2.7 |
| Sep 14, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+4 | R+1.7 | D+5.5 | D+6.1 |
| Sep 14, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+12 | D+4.5 | D+7.9 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+1 | R+0.4 | D+1.4 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+2 | R+0.1 | D+1.9 | D+1.4 |