House Effects
Sunday, October 11, 202623 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

YouGov

Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2004 to 2025

Versus the field
−0.13
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.13; 76% own record)
Average miss
4.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
867
446 races · 254 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2004134.6+1.3D+3.3
2006435.0−0.0D+2.0
2008954.8−0.4D+0.6
200925.0+0.2D+0.3
2010393.9−1.3D+0.2
20121714.3+0.2D+0.1
201310.8−3.4D+1.3
20141566.0+0.1R+0.1
20161175.7−0.1R+0.6
201717.6+1.4R+5.1
2018232.6−1.3R+0.9
2020825.1+0.3D+0.7
202114.9+1.2D+1.5
2022383.4−1.1D+0.8
2024834.9+1.2D+0.9
202522.4−5.6D+5.8
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Oct 5, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+6
Oct 5, 2026Generic ballotD+12
Oct 5, 2026Governor FLDavid Jolly v. Byron DonaldsR+2
Oct 5, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+9
Oct 5, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John E. SununuD+8
Oct 5, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottD+1
Oct 5, 2026Senate FLAngie Nixon v. Ashley MoodyR+5
Oct 4, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersD+1
Oct 4, 2026Governor KSCindy Holscher v. Ty MastersonR+3
Oct 4, 2026Governor MIJocelyn Benson v. John JamesD+3
Oct 4, 2026Senate KSAdam Hamilton v. Roger MarshallD+3
Oct 3, 2026Governor NELynne Walz v. Jim PillenR+1
Oct 3, 2026Senate NEDan Osborn v. Pete RickettsD+1
Oct 2, 2026Generic ballotD+9
Oct 1, 2026Governor MEHannah Pingree v. Bobby CharlesD+12
Oct 1, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsEven
Sep 30, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+4
Sep 30, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+4
Sep 28, 2026Generic ballotD+15
Sep 21, 2026Generic ballotD+14
Sep 18, 2026Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+9
Sep 18, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+13
Sep 18, 2026Governor GAKeisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick JacksonR+3
Sep 14, 2026Generic ballotD+12
Sep 11, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Sep 10, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyD+3
Sep 10, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedD+3
Sep 9, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Sep 8, 2026Governor MEHannah Pingree v. Bobby CharlesD+11
Sep 8, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Sep 8, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+11
Sep 8, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonD+3
Sep 8, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsD+4
Sep 4, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottEven
Sep 4, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+5
Aug 31, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Aug 31, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+11
Aug 26, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Aug 24, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Aug 17, 2026Generic ballotD+7
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 28, 20252025-GOV-VA D+15D+15.4R+0.4R+6.7
Oct 28, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+10D+14.4R+4.4R+9.7
Nov 3, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 31, 20242024 President, GAR+2R+2.2D+0.7D+1.6
Oct 31, 20242024 President, WID+4R+0.9D+4.9D+2.9
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, NVD+7D+1.6D+5.4D+5.9
Oct 31, 20242024 PresidentD+1R+1.5D+2.0D+3.7
Oct 31, 20242024 President, PAD+3R+1.7D+4.7D+2.5
Oct 31, 20242024 President, NVD+1R+3.1D+4.1D+3.6
Oct 31, 20242024 President, NCR+1R+3.2D+2.2D+2.6
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, AZD+4D+2.4D+1.6D+4.9
Oct 31, 20242024 President, MID+3R+1.4D+4.4D+3.6
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, PAD+6R+0.2D+6.2D+4.7
Oct 31, 20242024 President, AZR+1R+5.5D+5.0D+4.7
Oct 31, 20242024 Generic ballotD+3R+2.7D+5.7D+3.4
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, WID+5D+0.8D+4.2D+2.8
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, MID+9D+0.3D+8.7D+4.1
Oct 30, 20242024 President, COD+14D+11.0D+3.0D+2.1
Oct 29, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 29, 20242024 Generic ballotR+1R+2.7D+1.7D+3.4
Oct 28, 20242024 President, NER+15R+20.5D+5.5D+4.6
Oct 28, 20242024 President, PAEvenR+1.7D+1.7D+2.5
Oct 28, 20242024 House, NE-2D+4R+1.9D+5.9D+5.2
Oct 28, 20242024 House, NE-1R+14R+20.2D+6.2—
Oct 28, 20242024 House, NE-3R+46R+60.8D+14.8—
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, PAD+6R+0.2D+6.2D+4.7
Oct 25, 20242024 President, MID+5R+1.4D+6.4D+3.6
Oct 25, 20242024 President, WID+3R+0.9D+3.9D+2.9
Oct 25, 20242024 President, PAD+1R+1.7D+2.7D+2.5
Oct 25, 20242024 President, OHR+7R+11.2D+4.2D+4.2
Oct 25, 20242024 President, NVD+4R+3.1D+7.1D+3.6
Oct 25, 20242024 President, NHD+7D+2.8D+4.2D+5.6
Oct 25, 20242024 PresidentD+1R+1.5D+2.5D+3.7
Oct 25, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.2D+2.6
Oct 25, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 25, 20242024 President, MND+10D+4.2D+5.8D+1.2
Oct 25, 20242024 President, GAR+5R+2.2R+2.8D+1.6
Oct 25, 20242024 President, FLR+6R+13.1D+7.1D+7.3
Oct 25, 20242024 President, VAD+8D+5.8D+2.2D+1.2
Oct 25, 20242024 President, AZR+4R+5.5D+1.5D+4.7
Oct 25, 20242024 President, TXR+4R+13.7D+9.7D+7.0
Oct 22, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 22, 20242024 Generic ballotEvenR+2.7D+2.7D+3.4
Oct 21, 20242024 Generic ballotD+3R+2.7D+5.7D+3.4
Oct 21, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, CAD+21D+17.7D+3.3D+5.2
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, TXR+4R+8.5D+4.5D+4.5
Oct 17, 20242024 President, CAD+29D+20.1D+8.9D+5.4
Oct 17, 20242024 President, FLR+5R+13.1D+8.1D+7.3
Oct 17, 20242024 President, TXR+5R+13.7D+8.7D+7.0
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, NYD+25D+18.3D+6.7D+3.3
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, FLR+4R+12.8D+8.8D+8.0
Oct 17, 20242024 President, NYD+20D+12.6D+7.4D+3.9
Oct 17, 20242024 PresidentD+5R+1.5D+6.5D+3.7
Oct 17, 20242024 President, PAD+2R+1.7D+3.7D+2.5
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, PAD+8R+0.2D+8.2D+4.7
Oct 16, 20242024 President, AZR+3R+5.5D+2.5D+4.7
Oct 16, 20242024 Senate, AZD+9D+2.4D+6.6D+4.9
Oct 15, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Oct 15, 20242024 Generic ballotD+1R+2.7D+3.7D+3.4