Pollster record · how records are scored
The Tyson Group
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2004 to 2020
Versus the field
+0.01
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.04; 8% own record)
Average miss
3.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
27
14 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 3 | 3.4 | −1.2 | R+1.1 |
| 2008 | 14 | 4.1 | −0.0 | D+0.2 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1.8 | −2.4 | D+5.9 |
| 2012 | 3 | 2.5 | −1.2 | D+3.4 |
| 2014 | 1 | 1.9 | −1.6 | R+4.1 |
| 2016 | 4 | 2.8 | −0.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2020 | 1 | 12.6 | +9.3 | D+12.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | R+2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2020 | 2020 President, LA | R+6 | R+18.6 | D+12.6 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2016 President, FL | D+3 | R+1.2 | D+4.2 | D+3.2 |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FL | R+5 | R+7.7 | D+2.7 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 4, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FL | R+8 | R+7.7 | R+0.3 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 4, 2016 | 2016 President, FL | D+3 | R+1.2 | D+4.2 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 6, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FL | R+3 | R+1.1 | R+1.9 | D+2.2 |
| Oct 12, 2012 | 2012 President, NCR-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.0 | R+2.0 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 12, 2012 | 2012 Governor, NCR-ALIGNED | R+14 | R+11.4 | R+2.6 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 1, 2012 | 2012 House, NC-8R-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+7.8 | D+2.8 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 19, 2010 | 2010 Senate, NC | R+10 | R+11.8 | D+1.8 | R+4.1 |
| Oct 28, 2008 | 2008 Governor, NC | D+2 | D+3.4 | R+1.4 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 28, 2008 | 2008 Senate, NC | D+2 | D+8.5 | R+6.5 | R+6.2 |
| Oct 28, 2008 | 2008 President, NC | D+1 | D+0.3 | D+0.7 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 19, 2008 | 2008 President, NC | D+3 | D+0.3 | D+2.7 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 19, 2008 | 2008 Senate, NC | D+3 | D+8.5 | R+5.5 | R+6.2 |
| Oct 19, 2008 | 2008 Governor, NC | Even | D+3.4 | R+3.4 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 7, 2008 | 2008 Senate, NC | D+3 | D+8.5 | R+5.5 | R+6.2 |
| Oct 7, 2008 | 2008 Governor, NC | R+2 | D+3.4 | R+5.4 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 7, 2008 | 2008 President, NC | D+5 | D+0.3 | D+4.7 | R+0.3 |
| Sep 19, 2008 | 2008 Senate, NC | R+2 | D+8.5 | R+10.5 | R+6.2 |
| Sep 19, 2008 | 2008 Governor, NC | R+2 | D+3.4 | R+5.4 | R+3.6 |
| Sep 19, 2008 | 2008 President, NC | Even | D+0.3 | R+0.3 | R+0.3 |
| Sep 8, 2008 | 2008 President, NC | R+3 | D+0.3 | R+3.3 | R+0.3 |
| Sep 8, 2008 | 2008 Governor, NC | D+1 | D+3.4 | R+2.4 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 19, 2004 | 2004 Governor, NC | D+15 | D+12.7 | D+2.3 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 19, 2004 | 2004 President, NC | R+8 | R+12.4 | D+4.4 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 19, 2004 | 2004 Senate, NC | R+1 | R+4.6 | D+3.6 | D+5.3 |