House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Cygnal

Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2014 to 2025

Versus the field
−0.50
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.30; 36% own record)
Average miss
4.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
110
65 races · 36 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
201416.0−4.0D+16.2
201625.3−2.7R+2.0
201892.5−2.4R+2.8
201910.5−3.4R+0.9
2020125.0−1.3D+1.8
202111.9−1.6R+1.6
2022533.9−1.5R+1.1
2024293.9−1.1R+1.3
202529.8+2.5D+0.5
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 11, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonEven
Sep 11, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+3
Sep 2, 2026Generic ballotD+9
Aug 7, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Jul 31, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+3
Jul 1, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Jun 19, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonR+2
Jun 19, 2026Governor IARob Sand v. Zach LahnD+4
Jun 3, 2026Generic ballotD+5
May 7, 2026Generic ballotD+7
May 6, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Apr 3, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Mar 4, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Feb 26, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Feb 4, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jan 28, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jan 25, 2026Senate MAEd Markey v. John DeatonD+24
Jan 8, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Dec 7, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Nov 13, 2025Governor ALDoug Jones v. Tommy TubervilleR+19
Nov 6, 2025Generic ballotD+6
Oct 8, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Sep 3, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Aug 9, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Jul 2, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Jun 21, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Jun 4, 2025Generic ballotEven
May 17, 2025Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+2
May 8, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Apr 3, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Mar 5, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Feb 5, 2025Generic ballotR+1
Jan 12, 2025Generic ballotR+2
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 7, 20252025-GOV-VA R-ALIGNEDD+4D+15.4R+11.4R+6.4
Sep 7, 20252025-GOV-VA R-ALIGNEDD+7D+15.4R+8.3R+6.4
Oct 30, 20242024 President, CAD+25D+20.1D+4.4D+6.0
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, CAD+24D+17.7D+6.5D+4.8
Oct 29, 20242024 Senate, VAD+10D+8.9D+1.0D+1.3
Oct 29, 20242024 President, VAD+8D+5.8D+1.8D+1.2
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, TXR+4R+8.5D+4.5D+4.5
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, FLR+4R+12.8D+8.9D+8.0
Oct 28, 20242024 President, WYR+43R+45.8D+3.3D+10.8
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, WYR+48R+51.0D+3.5—
Oct 28, 20242024 President, TXR+8R+13.7D+5.7D+7.2
Oct 28, 20242024 President, FLR+5R+13.1D+8.0D+7.2
Oct 27, 20242024 Senate, NYD+19D+18.3D+1.1D+4.4
Oct 27, 20242024 President, NYD+18D+12.6D+5.2D+4.4
Oct 26, 20242024 Generic ballotEvenR+2.7D+2.6D+3.5
Oct 26, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 24, 20242024 Senate, NJD+16D+9.6D+6.8D+11.5
Oct 24, 20242024 President, NJD+12D+5.9D+5.6D+9.7
Oct 16, 20242024 House, AK-1R-ALIGNEDR+4R+2.4R+1.9D+2.3
Oct 14, 20242024 Governor, NCD+14D+14.8R+1.3R+0.7
Oct 14, 20242024 President, NCR+1R+3.2D+2.6D+2.6
Oct 8, 20242024 House, MI-7R-ALIGNEDR+4R+3.7EvenD+1.2
Oct 3, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 3, 20242024 Generic ballotR+1R+2.7D+1.5D+3.5
Oct 1, 20242024 House, NY-1R-ALIGNEDR+10R+10.4D+0.8D+6.9
Sep 28, 20242024 President, IAR-ALIGNEDR+7R+13.2D+6.5D+8.0
Sep 28, 20242024 House, NH-1R-ALIGNEDD+4D+8.1R+4.1D+7.2
Sep 16, 20242024 Governor, NCD+6D+14.8R+8.5R+0.7
Sep 16, 20242024 President, NCEvenR+3.2D+2.9D+2.6
Sep 5, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Sep 5, 20242024 Generic ballotR+1R+2.7D+2.0D+3.5
Nov 4, 20222022 Governor, MID+4D+10.5R+6.8R+4.4
Nov 3, 20222022 Senate, OHR+6R+6.1R+0.1D+4.3
Nov 3, 20222022 Governor, OHR+19R+25.0D+6.1D+6.1
Nov 2, 20222022 Governor, MID+4D+10.5R+6.1R+4.4
Nov 2, 20222022 Senate, NVR+3D+0.8R+3.3R+0.5
Nov 2, 20222022 Governor, NVR+5R+1.5R+3.5D+0.9
Nov 1, 20222022 Senate, OHR+5R+6.1D+1.5D+4.3
Nov 1, 20222022 Governor, OHR+20R+25.0D+5.1D+6.1
Oct 31, 20222022 Governor, MID+6D+10.5R+4.1R+4.4
Oct 30, 20222022 Generic ballotR+3R+2.6R+0.5D+2.9
Oct 30, 20222022 Senate, OHR+5R+6.1D+1.6D+4.3
Oct 30, 20222022 Governor, OHR+21R+25.0D+4.5D+6.1
Oct 29, 20222022 Governor, ALR+34R+37.7D+3.5—
Oct 29, 20222022 Governor, MID+7D+10.5R+3.5R+4.4
Oct 29, 20222022 Senate, ALR+30R+35.7D+6.1—
Oct 28, 20222022 Senate, OHR+5R+6.1D+1.5D+4.3
Oct 28, 20222022 Governor, OHR+21R+25.0D+4.0D+6.1
Oct 27, 20222022 Governor, MID+6D+10.5R+4.3R+4.4
Oct 27, 20222022 Governor, IAR-ALIGNEDR+19R+18.5R+0.5D+3.7
Oct 27, 20222022 Senate, IAR-ALIGNEDR+11R+12.2D+1.0D+3.9
Oct 26, 20222022 Governor, OHR+21R+25.0D+4.5D+6.1
Oct 26, 20222022 Senate, OHR+5R+6.1D+1.1D+4.3
Oct 25, 20222022 Governor, MID+6D+10.5R+4.4R+4.4
Oct 24, 20222022 Governor, OHR+18R+25.0D+7.4D+6.1
Oct 24, 20222022 Senate, OHR+4R+6.1D+2.0D+4.3
Oct 23, 20222022 Governor, MID+6D+10.5R+4.9R+4.4
Oct 22, 20222022 Governor, OHR+18R+25.0D+7.4D+6.1
Oct 22, 20222022 Senate, OHR+4R+6.1D+2.5D+4.3
Oct 22, 20222022 Senate, NCR+4R+3.2R+0.6D+0.3