House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

SoCal Research

Method not recorded · scored polls from 2024 to 2025 · 100% of scored polls were for a party or campaign

Versus the field
−0.06
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.46; 12% own record)
Average miss
3.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.8
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
16
14 races · 8 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2024143.1−0.3D+3.5
202526.4−1.3D+5.7
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 13, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+8
Sep 13, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+5
Jul 30, 2026Senate MIAbdul El-Sayed v. Mike RogersR+1
Jun 21, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+12
Jun 21, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonR+1
Aug 19, 2025Generic ballotD+5
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 29, 20252025-GOV-NJ R-ALIGNEDD+7D+14.4R+7.4R+9.7
Oct 29, 20252025-GOV-VA R-ALIGNEDD+10D+15.4R+5.4R+6.6
Nov 3, 20242024 President, IAR-ALIGNEDR+8R+13.2D+5.0D+8.4
Oct 31, 20242024 President, AZR-ALIGNEDR+1R+5.5D+4.7D+4.6
Oct 31, 20242024 President, PAR-ALIGNEDD+2R+1.7D+3.2D+2.5
Oct 31, 20242024 PresidentR-ALIGNEDR+1R+1.5D+0.7D+3.7
Oct 29, 20242024 President, WIR-ALIGNEDEvenR+0.9D+0.9D+2.9
Oct 29, 20242024 Senate, WIR-ALIGNEDD+1D+0.8D+0.2D+2.9
Oct 27, 20242024 President, GAR-ALIGNEDR+1R+2.2D+1.2D+1.5
Oct 21, 20242024 Governor, NCR-ALIGNEDD+15D+14.8EvenR+1.1
Oct 21, 20242024 President, NCR-ALIGNEDR+2R+3.2D+0.8D+2.5
Oct 13, 20242024 President, MIR-ALIGNEDD+1R+1.4D+2.4D+3.6
Oct 13, 20242024 Senate, MIR-ALIGNEDD+3D+0.3D+2.7D+4.1
Oct 7, 20242024 President, AZR-ALIGNEDD+1R+5.5D+6.4D+4.6
Oct 7, 20242024 Senate, AZR-ALIGNEDD+13D+2.4D+10.1D+4.5
Sep 11, 20242024 PresidentR-ALIGNEDD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7