Pollster record · how records are scored
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2006 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.09
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.36; 28% own record)
Average miss
4.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.5
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
89
57 races · 4 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2 | 6.6 | −1.9 | D+5.3 |
| 2008 | 3 | 8.1 | −3.1 | D+3.1 |
| 2010 | 24 | 4.8 | −0.5 | D+2.3 |
| 2012 | 15 | 6.0 | +2.3 | R+3.8 |
| 2014 | 3 | 4.3 | +1.2 | R+5.5 |
| 2016 | 4 | 4.4 | −0.3 | R+0.9 |
| 2018 | 6 | 8.6 | +4.4 | D+5.9 |
| 2020 | 14 | 2.4 | −2.9 | R+3.7 |
| 2022 | 8 | 2.5 | −1.0 | R+0.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | 4.4 | +0.6 | R+1.5 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Senate MI | Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers | D+7 |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Governor PA | Josh Shapiro v. Stacy Garrity | D+22 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Governor PA | Josh Shapiro v. Stacy Garrity | D+18 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NV | R+1 | D+1.6 | R+2.4 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2024 President, NV | R+6 | R+3.1 | R+2.9 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+1 | D+0.3 | D+0.3 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+5 | R+1.4 | D+6.5 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+3 | R+0.2 | D+3.0 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.9 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2024 House, PA-10 | D+9 | R+1.3 | D+10.3 | — |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 President | D+5 | R+1.5 | D+6.5 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+8 | R+0.2 | D+8.2 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.6 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+14 | D+14.8 | R+1.2 | R+4.0 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | R+1 | D+4.9 | R+5.9 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NV | R+6 | D+0.8 | R+6.4 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NV | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+0.3 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | D+1 | D+0.7 | Even | R+1.7 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+3 | D+4.9 | R+1.7 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | Even | R+2.6 | D+2.6 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+1 | R+2.6 | D+1.6 | D+2.9 |
| Nov 2, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | R+1 | D+1.2 | R+2.0 | D+4.2 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | R+1 | R+3.4 | D+2.4 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 31, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+3 | D+0.6 | D+2.4 | D+6.4 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | R+5 | R+3.4 | R+1.1 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 22, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | Even | D+0.3 | R+0.7 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 22, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | R+3 | D+2.3 | R+5.3 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | Even | D+0.6 | R+0.6 | D+6.4 |
| Oct 11, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+2 | R+1.7 | D+3.7 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 11, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | D+2 | R+1.3 | D+3.3 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 28, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | D+1 | D+0.3 | D+0.7 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 28, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZ | D+4 | D+2.3 | D+1.7 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 26, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+2 | D+0.6 | D+1.4 | D+6.4 |
| Sep 26, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+4 | R+3.4 | D+7.4 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 4, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+2 | D+1.2 | D+0.8 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-16 | D+4 | R+4.3 | D+8.3 | R+3.5 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-8 | D+17 | D+9.3 | D+7.7 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-13 | R+21 | R+41.0 | D+20.0 | — |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-9 | R+21 | R+19.5 | R+1.5 | — |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-11 | R+4 | R+18.0 | D+14.0 | D+5.1 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-10 | R+3 | R+2.6 | R+0.4 | D+1.1 |
| Oct 31, 2016 | 2016 Senate, PA | D+6 | R+1.4 | D+7.4 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 31, 2016 | 2016 President, PA | D+2 | R+0.7 | D+2.7 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 6, 2016 | 2016 President, PA | D+4 | R+0.7 | D+4.7 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 6, 2016 | 2016 Senate, PA | R+4 | R+1.4 | R+2.6 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2014 Senate, SC | R+27 | R+22.1 | R+4.9 | R+1.2 |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2014 Senate, SC | R+20 | R+17.4 | R+2.6 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2014 Governor, SC | R+20 | R+14.5 | R+5.5 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 30, 2012 | 2012 President, PA | Even | D+5.4 | R+5.4 | D+1.0 |
| Oct 30, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PA | D+1 | D+9.1 | R+8.1 | R+2.2 |
| Oct 23, 2012 | 2012 Senate, FL | D+5 | D+13.0 | R+8.0 | R+4.5 |
| Oct 23, 2012 | 2012 President, FL | R+5 | D+0.9 | R+5.9 | R+0.7 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-22 | Even | D+9.3 | R+9.3 | R+5.2 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-18 | R+1 | D+0.6 | R+1.6 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 12, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PAR-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+9.1 | R+11.1 | R+2.2 |
| Oct 12, 2012 | 2012 President, PAR-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+5.4 | R+9.4 | D+1.0 |
| Oct 5, 2012 | 2012 President, PA | D+1 | D+5.4 | R+4.4 | D+1.0 |
| Oct 5, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PA | D+2 | D+9.1 | R+7.1 | R+2.2 |
| Oct 1, 2012 | 2012 House, PA-12 | R+2 | R+3.5 | D+1.5 | D+6.4 |
| Sep 19, 2012 | 2012 President, PA | D+2 | D+5.4 | R+3.4 | D+1.0 |
| Sep 19, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PA | D+5 | D+9.1 | R+4.1 | R+2.2 |
| Sep 16, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PAR-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+9.1 | R+6.1 | R+2.2 |
| Sep 16, 2012 | 2012 President, PAR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+5.4 | R+4.4 | D+1.0 |