House Effects
Sunday, November 1, 20262 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Senate · 2026

Texas Senate

James Talarico (D)v.Ken Paxton (R)LEAN D

Open seat, currently Republican.

Projected margin
D+2.5
Nine in ten outcomes: D+10 to R+5
Chance of winning
71%
James Talarico
Polls alone
D+3.5
74 polls from 38 pollsters; latest Oct 30. Weight in projection: 85%.
Fundamentals alone
R+3.1
Weight in projection: 15%.
Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

R+5EvenD+5D+10Oct ’25DecFeb ’26AprJunAugOctD+3.5Election Day
adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor
Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.3).

What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.4
Partisan leanR+9.1
National environmentD+3.9
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundraising gapD+1.8
Fundamentals estimateR+3.1
Input: partisan lean
R+12.2
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$29.5M D · $11.3M R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Lean R
Not an input to the projection.
Table view

All 74 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

DatesPollsterSampleTalaricoPaxtonAs publishedAdjustedShare of average
Oct 27–30Kreate StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED900 LV4845D+3D+6.4
moved 3.4 toward D
5.4%
source
Oct 22–28ActiVote400 LV5248D+4D+4.1
moved 0.1 toward D
5.2%
source
Oct 26–28Quantus InsightsREP.-ALIGNED1,221 LV4849R+1D+2.6
moved 3.6 toward D
4.9%
source
Oct 20–27SSRS
for CNN
923 LV4943D+6D+5.6
moved 0.4 toward R
4.5%
source
Oct 23–27A2 Insights631 LV5047D+3D+3.0
4.7%
source
Oct 21–26YouGov
for 254 Labs
1,000 RV5143D+8D+7.5
moved 0.5 toward R
2.8%
source
Oct 23–26Data for Progress712 LV4945D+4D+4.1
moved 0.1 toward D
5.1%
source
Oct 21–25Texas Southern University2,000 LV4947D+2D+2.1
moved 0.1 toward D
4.3%
source
Oct 20–21Rasmussen Reports965 LV4545EvenD+0.5
moved 0.5 toward D
3.6%
source
Oct 17–21ActiVote400 LV5149D+2D+2.1
moved 0.1 toward D
1.9%
source
Oct 13–21YouGov
for N+ Univision
1,000 RV5045D+5D+4.5
moved 0.5 toward R
1.1%
source
Oct 1–20Verasight509 LV4743D+4D+3.7
moved 0.3 toward R
3.5%
source
Oct 17–19Emerson College
for Nexstar Media
1,000 LV48.547D+2D+1.0
moved 0.5 toward R
4.3%
source
Oct 15–19Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
1,398 LV4949EvenD+0.3
moved 0.3 toward D
4.0%
source
Oct 15–18Texas Public Opinion ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED969 LV5147D+4D+0.6
moved 3.4 toward R
3.2%
source
Oct 15–18Pollfinity Research278 RV4843D+5D+5.0
1.9%
source
Oct 8–16YouGov1,492 LV5149D+2D+1.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.8%
source
Oct 10–15Cor Services, Inc.REP.-ALIGNED
for Heritage Action
1,409 LV4440D+4D+7.6
moved 3.6 toward D
2.7%
source
Oct 10–14University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov2,000 LV4846D+2D+2.1
moved 0.1 toward D
2.7%
source
Oct 13–14InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV4849R+1R+0.5
moved 0.6 toward D
2.9%
source
Sep 30 – Oct 14ActiVote400 LV5248D+4D+4.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.7%
source
Oct 9–13GS Strategy GroupREP.-ALIGNED
for The Cook Political Report
934 LV4944D+5D+8.1
moved 3.1 toward D
2.5%
source
Oct 8–11Marist College— LV4745D+2D+2.2
moved 0.2 toward D
2.5%
source
Oct 9–11Quantus InsightsREP.-ALIGNED854 LV4747EvenD+3.6
moved 3.6 toward D
1.2%
source
Oct 5–8Siena College617 LV4844D+4D+3.7
moved 0.3 toward R
2.2%
source
Oct 6–8Trafalgar GroupREP.-ALIGNED1,086 LV4744D+3D+6.5
moved 3.5 toward D
2.2%
source
Sep 28 – Oct 5YouGov3,625 LV5044D+6D+5.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.2%
source
Sep 25 – Oct 5Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov861 LV5047D+3D+3.0
1.9%
source
Sep 21–30The New York Times/Siena College615 LV5145D+6D+5.7
moved 0.3 toward R
1.7%
source
Sep 28–29Rasmussen Reports1,128 LV4645D+1D+1.5
moved 0.5 toward D
0.7%
source
Sep 20–28Guidant Polling & StrategyREP.-ALIGNED
for Public First Action
800 LV4744D+3D+6.7
moved 3.7 toward D
1.3%
source
Sep 20–28Guidant Polling and StrategyREP.-ALIGNED
for Public First Action
800 LV46.644.2D+2D+6.0
moved 3.6 toward D
1.3%
source
Sep 18–28University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion850 LV4545EvenR+0.1
moved 0.1 toward R
1.4%
source
Sep 24–28Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
881 LV5149D+2D+2.3
moved 0.3 toward D
0.8%
source
Sep 24–27Pulse Decision ScienceREP.-ALIGNED
for Paxton's campaign
800 LV4548R+3D+0.8
moved 3.8 toward D
1.3%
source
Sep 24–26Big Data Poll
for the Public Polling Project
698 LV4643.5D+3D+2.5
1.2%
source
Sep 22–24Stratus IntelligenceREP.-ALIGNED
for Texans for a Conservative Majority
856 LV4848EvenD+3.7
moved 3.7 toward D
1.1%
source
Sep 19–22Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research
1,007 LV4944D+5D+5.0
1.0%
source
Sep 17–20Marist College1,139 RV5044D+6D+6.2
moved 0.2 toward D
0.3%
source
Sep 15–19Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center1,800 LV4746D+1D+1.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.9%
source
Sep 15–17Trafalgar GroupREP.-ALIGNED1,079 LV46.445.2D+1D+4.7
moved 3.5 toward D
0.4%
source
Sep 12–14Emerson College
for Nexstar
1,000 LV47.446.4D+1D+0.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.5%
source
Sep 12–13SoCal Research649 LV5045D+5D+4.9
moved 0.1 toward R
0.6%
source
Sep 8–11Siena College614 LV4943D+6D+5.7
moved 0.3 toward R
0.3%
source
Sep 8–10Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
for Telemundo
625 LV4643D+3D+3.6
moved 0.6 toward D
0.7%
source
Sep 8–9InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV47.145.6D+2D+2.0
moved 0.5 toward D
0.3%
source
Aug 27 – Sep 4YouGov
for Univision
1,000 RV4843D+5D+4.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.0%
source
Aug 30 – Sep 1Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research
for AARP
895 LV4844D+4D+4.0
0.5%
source
Aug 24–26Overton Insights
for Texas Public Policy Foundation
1,167 LV5050EvenEven
0.3%
source
Aug 21–24Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research
1,000 LV4842D+6D+6.0
0.1%
source
Aug 5–13YouGov
for University of Texas
1,200 RV4239D+3D+2.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.0%
source
Aug 9–10Emerson College
for Nexstar
1,000 LV46.347.3R+1R+1.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.1%
source
Jul 15–31YouGov
for 254 Labs
1,001 LV4845D+3D+2.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.0%
source
Jul 27–30Siena College
for Texas A&M Bush School
619 LV4743D+4D+3.7
moved 0.3 toward R
0.0%
source
Jul 27–30Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center1,200 LV4745D+2D+2.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.0%
source
Jul 23–27Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
1,006 RV5148D+3D+3.3
moved 0.3 toward D
0.0%
source
Jul 15–17Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research
1,048 LV4540D+5D+5.0
0.0%
source
Jun 23–28A2 Insights618 LV48.446.1D+2D+2.3
0.0%
source
Jun 19–27The New York Times/Siena College656 LV46.646.7EvenR+0.4
moved 0.3 toward R
0.0%
source
Jun 21SoCal ResearchREP.-ALIGNED
for Red Eagle Politics
800 LV47.148.5R+1D+2.1
moved 3.6 toward D
0.0%
source
Jun 5–12YouGov
for University of Texas
1,200 RV4243R+1R+1.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.0%
source
Jun 1–4Siena College
for Texas A&M Bush School
807 LV4646EvenR+0.3
moved 0.3 toward R
0.0%
source
Jun 3–4Quantus Insights800 LV4345R+2R+2.2
moved 0.2 toward R
0.0%
source
May 27–28Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research
1,670 LV4744D+3D+3.0
0.0%
source
May 22–23Public Policy PollingDEM.-ALIGNED
for Lone Star Rising PAC
643 RV4538D+7D+4.1
moved 2.9 toward R
0.0%
source
Apr 22 – May 6Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center1,223 LV4545EvenD+0.1
moved 0.1 toward D
0.0%
source
Apr 10–20YouGov
for University of Texas
1,200 RV4234D+8D+7.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.0%
source
Apr 17–20Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research
1,018 LV4641D+5D+5.0
0.0%
source
Mar 12–17Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED
for Talarico's campaign
900 LV4443D+1R+2.3
moved 3.3 toward R
0.0%
source
Mar 4–5Public Policy PollingDEM.-ALIGNED
for Senate Majority PAC
576 RV4745D+2R+0.9
moved 2.9 toward R
0.0%
source
Jan 20–31University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov1,502 LV4446R+2R+1.9
moved 0.1 toward D
0.0%
source
Jan 10–12Emerson College
for Nexstar
1,165 RV45.645.6EvenR+0.5
moved 0.5 toward R
0.0%
source
Nov 12–17 ’25Ragnar Research Partners1,000 LV4444EvenEven
0.0%
source
Sep 19 – Oct 1 ’25University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov1,183 LV4649R+3R+2.9
moved 0.1 toward D
0.0%
source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

YearDemocratRepublicanResult
2024Colin AllredTed CruzR+8.5
2020Mary Jennings HegarJohn CornynR+9.6
2018Beto O'RourkeTed CruzR+2.6
2014David M. AlameelJohn CornynR+27.2