Pollster record · how records are scored
Impact Research
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2004 to 2024 · 97% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.02
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.07; 27% own record)
Average miss
6.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
97
77 races · 29 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 4 | 7.6 | −1.0 | D+1.2 |
| 2006 | 4 | 3.7 | −3.9 | D+0.2 |
| 2008 | 18 | 5.7 | −2.2 | R+2.4 |
| 2010 | 13 | 8.7 | +3.9 | D+3.8 |
| 2012 | 13 | 5.8 | +1.5 | D+2.9 |
| 2014 | 3 | 7.9 | +1.0 | R+1.8 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0.2 | −5.4 | R+3.0 |
| 2016 | 8 | 10.0 | +3.1 | D+0.4 |
| 2017 | 2 | 5.7 | −2.7 | R+3.7 |
| 2018 | 12 | 3.1 | −2.5 | R+0.8 |
| 2019 | 2 | 7.7 | +3.4 | D+1.5 |
| 2020 | 10 | 8.5 | +0.3 | R+2.2 |
| 2022 | 6 | 4.1 | −0.2 | R+4.8 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0.5 | −4.7 | R+5.0 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | ME-2 | Matt Dunlap v. Paul LePage | Even |
| Sep 2, 2026 | NY-21 | Blake Gendebien v. Anthony Constantino | R+3 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | FL-22 | Pia Dandiya v. Casey Askar | D+2 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Senate SC | Annie Andrews v. Darline Graham | Even |
| Aug 24, 2026 | TN-5 | Chaz Molder v. Charlie Hatcher | R+8 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Senate SD | Brian Bengs v. Mike Rounds | Even |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Senate NE | Dan Osborn v. Pete Ricketts | Even |
| Aug 9, 2026 | WI-1 | Mitchell Berman v. Bryan Steil | R+1 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | IN-5 | J.D. Ford v. Victoria Spartz | R+2 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | AL-2 | Shomari Figures v. Rhett Marques | R+1 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | MT-1 | Sam Forstag v. Aaron Flint | Even |
| Jun 11, 2026 | PA-8 | Paige Cognetti v. Rob Bresnahan Jr. | D+1 |
| May 31, 2026 | NY-21 | Blake Gendebien v. Anthony Constantino | R+1 |
| May 31, 2026 | WI-3 | Rebecca Cooke v. Derrick Van Orden | D+4 |
| May 28, 2026 | Senate MN | Peggy Flanagan v. Michele Tafoya | D+7 |
| May 18, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Senate MS | Scott Colom v. Cindy Hyde-Smith | R+3 |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+4 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | D+1 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | WI-3 | Rebecca Cooke v. Derrick Van Orden | D+1 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Governor MI | Jocelyn Benson v. John James | D+3 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Senate NE | Dan Osborn v. Pete Ricketts | R+1 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Governor OH | Amy Acton v. Vivek Ramaswamy | R+1 |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Senate MN | Peggy Flanagan v. Michele Tafoya | D+3 |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Senate MS | Scott Colom v. Cindy Hyde-Smith | R+13 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2024 | 2024 President, NE | R+20 | R+20.5 | D+0.5 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballotD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+2.6 | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | 2022 House, OH-1D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+5.5 | R+2.5 | — |
| Sep 21, 2022 | 2022 House, OH-1D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+5.5 | R+2.5 | — |
| Sep 19, 2022 | 2022 House, MT-1D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 | R+0.3 |
| Sep 13, 2022 | 2022 House, FL-28D-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+27.4 | D+17.4 | — |
| Sep 11, 2022 | 2022 House, IA-3D-ALIGNED | Even | R+0.7 | D+0.7 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 21, 2020 | 2020 House, AR-2D-ALIGNED | Even | R+10.7 | D+10.7 | D+9.8 |
| Oct 5, 2020 | 2020 Senate, SCD-ALIGNED | Even | R+10.3 | D+10.3 | D+7.4 |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 2020 House, AR-2D-ALIGNED | Even | R+10.7 | D+10.7 | D+9.8 |
| Sep 28, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NCD-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+4.5 | D+5.5 | D+5.9 |
| Sep 28, 2020 | 2020 President, NCD-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+1.3 | D+4.3 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 28, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NCD-ALIGNED | D+12 | R+1.7 | D+13.7 | D+6.0 |
| Sep 23, 2020 | 2020 President, MID-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+2.8 | D+5.2 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 House, MI-3D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+5.9 | D+7.9 | D+4.1 |
| Sep 17, 2020 | 2020 House, NJ-2D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+5.8 | D+10.3 | D+8.6 |
| Sep 13, 2020 | 2020 House, AR-2D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+10.7 | D+6.7 | D+9.8 |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2019 Governor, LAD-ALIGNED | D+16 | D+2.7 | D+13.3 | R+0.7 |
| Jul 18, 2019 | 2019 House, NC-9D-ALIGNED | Even | R+2.0 | D+2.0 | D+5.1 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-27D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+6.0 | D+4.0 | R+6.0 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MID-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+9.6 | D+0.9 | R+0.2 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-27D-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+6.0 | R+1.0 | R+6.0 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 House, MI-11D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+6.7 | D+2.8 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MID-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+9.6 | D+0.4 | R+0.2 |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2018 House, MI-11D-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+6.7 | R+1.7 | R+2.5 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MID-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+9.6 | D+2.4 | R+0.2 |
| Sep 25, 2018 | 2018 Governor, ILD-ALIGNED | D+16 | D+15.7 | D+0.3 | D+3.1 |
| Sep 24, 2018 | 2018 Governor, SDD-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+3.4 | D+6.4 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 House, TX-31D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.9 | R+1.1 | R+13.0 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MID-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+9.6 | R+2.6 | R+0.2 |
| Sep 10, 2018 | 2018 House, MN-7D-ALIGNED | D+18 | D+4.3 | D+13.7 | — |
| May 24, 2017 | 2017 House, SC-5D-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+3.1 | R+6.9 | R+8.6 |
| Apr 25, 2017 | 2017 House, GA-6D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+3.6 | D+4.6 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 14, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-10D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+3.4 | D+8.4 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2016 House, UT-4D-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+12.4 | D+2.5 | R+2.0 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 House, VA-5D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+16.7 | D+10.7 | D+9.6 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 House, MI-1D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+14.8 | D+15.8 | D+13.7 |
| Oct 3, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-13D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+3.8 | D+7.2 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 29, 2016 | 2016 President, OH | D+2 | R+8.1 | D+10.1 | D+7.6 |
| Sep 29, 2016 | 2016 Senate, OH | R+12 | R+20.9 | D+8.9 | D+5.8 |
| Sep 12, 2016 | 2016 House, MI-1D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+14.8 | D+16.8 | D+13.7 |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2015 Governor, LAD-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+12.2 | R+0.2 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2014 House, KS-2D-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+18.4 | D+8.4 | D+10.3 |
| Oct 5, 2014 | 2014 House, KS-2D-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+18.4 | D+13.4 | D+10.3 |
| Sep 23, 2014 | 2014 House, FL-2D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+1.1 | D+1.9 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 Senate, IND-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+5.8 | D+1.2 | R+4.1 |
| Oct 20, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-22D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+9.3 | D+0.7 | R+6.7 |
| Oct 20, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-13D-ALIGNED | D+9 | R+0.3 | D+9.3 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 19, 2012 | 2012 Senate, AZD-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+3.0 | D+7.0 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-8D-ALIGNED | D+15 | D+9.5 | D+5.5 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 9, 2012 | 2012 House, OH-6D-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+6.5 | D+12.5 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 3, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-17D-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+6.6 | R+5.6 | R+9.2 |
| Sep 26, 2012 | 2012 House, NC-8D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+7.8 | D+8.8 | D+2.7 |
| Sep 24, 2012 | 2012 House, PA-12D-ALIGNED | D+11 | R+3.5 | D+14.5 | D+4.1 |
| Sep 20, 2012 | 2012 Senate, AZD-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+3.0 | D+2.0 | D+0.9 |
| Sep 14, 2012 | 2012 House, TX-23D-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+4.8 | D+0.2 | R+10.9 |
| Sep 11, 2012 | 2012 House, OH-6D-ALIGNED | Even | R+6.5 | D+6.5 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 House, AZ-9D-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+4.1 | D+0.9 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 27, 2010 | 2010 Senate, ILD-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 2010 Senate, ILD-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 | D+0.6 |