Pollster record · how records are scored
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2012 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.27; 23% own record)
Average miss
4.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
53
32 races · 8 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 4 | 5.8 | +0.9 | R+2.6 |
| 2013 | 1 | 9.8 | +7.0 | D+11.1 |
| 2014 | 3 | 1.1 | −2.0 | R+1.8 |
| 2016 | 6 | 1.7 | −2.8 | R+1.6 |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.2 | −2.5 | R+1.1 |
| 2020 | 17 | 4.3 | −1.0 | R+0.2 |
| 2022 | 4 | 1.4 | −1.9 | D+2.1 |
| 2024 | 16 | 6.1 | +1.5 | D+1.5 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+4 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | Even |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Governor ME | Hannah Pingree v. Bobby Charles | D+11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Senate ME | Troy Jackson v. Susan Collins | D+5 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+4 | R+1.4 | D+5.4 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+9 | D+0.3 | D+8.7 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+6 | R+0.2 | D+6.2 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 President, NH | D+7 | D+2.8 | D+4.2 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NC | D+12 | D+14.8 | R+2.8 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 President, NC | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NH | R+2 | R+9.3 | D+7.3 | D+9.2 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+1 | R+1.7 | D+2.7 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 President, NH | D+9 | D+2.8 | D+6.2 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 Governor, NH | R+1 | R+9.3 | D+8.3 | D+9.2 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+1 | R+1.7 | D+2.7 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+9 | R+0.2 | D+9.2 | D+4.6 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MI | D+13 | D+0.3 | D+12.7 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+9 | R+0.2 | D+9.2 | D+4.6 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 President, MI | D+5 | R+1.4 | D+6.4 | D+3.6 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+2 | R+1.7 | D+3.7 | D+2.5 |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | D+5 | D+2.8 | D+2.2 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NH | D+10 | D+9.1 | D+0.9 | R+3.9 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MA | D+27 | D+29.1 | R+2.1 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NH | R+16 | R+15.5 | R+0.5 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 President, NH | D+10 | D+7.4 | D+2.6 | D+2.7 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 Senate, TX | R+5 | R+9.6 | D+4.6 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 President, TX | R+1 | R+5.6 | D+4.6 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+12 | D+4.5 | D+7.5 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | Even | R+1.3 | D+1.3 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NH | R+23 | R+31.8 | D+8.8 | D+13.4 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+4 | R+1.7 | D+5.7 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NH | D+19 | D+15.6 | D+3.4 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 President | D+10 | D+4.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NH | D+19 | D+15.6 | D+3.4 | R+0.9 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 President, NH | D+9 | D+7.4 | D+1.1 | D+2.7 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NC | D+6 | R+1.7 | D+7.7 | D+6.1 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NH | R+26 | R+31.8 | D+5.8 | D+13.4 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | R+1 | R+1.3 | D+0.8 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 Governor, NC | D+13 | D+4.5 | D+8.5 | D+5.6 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 President, TX | R+4 | R+5.6 | D+2.1 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 2020 Senate, TX | R+10 | R+9.6 | R+0.4 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MA | D+25 | D+24.2 | D+0.8 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MA | R+39 | R+33.5 | R+5.5 | R+4.8 |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2016 President, NH | Even | D+0.4 | R+0.4 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NH | R+4 | R+2.3 | R+1.7 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NH | D+1 | D+0.1 | D+0.9 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 9, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NH | R+2 | R+2.3 | D+0.3 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 9, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NH | R+1 | D+0.1 | R+1.1 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 9, 2016 | 2016 President, NH | D+6 | D+0.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MA | R+4 | R+1.9 | R+2.1 | Even |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NH | D+3 | D+3.2 | R+0.2 | R+0.7 |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2014 Governor, NH | D+4 | D+4.9 | R+0.9 | D+2.7 |
| Jun 17, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MA | D+20 | D+10.2 | D+9.8 | R+1.3 |
| Nov 2, 2012 | 2012 President, MA | D+20 | D+23.0 | R+3.0 | R+2.3 |
| Nov 2, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MA | R+1 | D+7.5 | R+8.5 | R+4.1 |
| Sep 15, 2012 | 2012 President, MA | D+23 | D+23.0 | Even | R+2.3 |
| Sep 15, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MA | R+4 | D+7.5 | R+11.5 | R+4.1 |