House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Slingshot Strategies

Method: ivr · scored polls from 2018 to 2024

Versus the field
+0.04
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.52; 3% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
5.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
5
4 races · 8 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
201824.8+4.5D+4.3
202211.3−2.8R+2.8
202428.6+2.8D+2.8
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Aug 24, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+7
Aug 24, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+6
Jul 17, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+3
Jul 17, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+5
May 28, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+5
May 28, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+3
Apr 20, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+5
Apr 20, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+5
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Sep 21, 20242024 Governor, DED+27D+12.1D+14.9D+6.6
Sep 21, 20242024 President, DED+17D+14.7D+2.3D+5.0
Oct 26, 20222022 Governor, NYD+6D+7.3R+1.3D+1.5
Nov 1, 20182018 Governor, MED+17D+7.7D+9.3D+0.5
Sep 30, 20182018 Governor, MED+8D+7.7D+0.3D+0.5