House Effects
Thursday, October 22, 202612 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

ActiVote

Method: online opt-in · scored polls from 2022 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.07
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.33; 39% own record)
Average miss
4.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
113
56 races · 40 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2022115.9+1.1D+1.5
20241023.8−0.5R+0.3
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Oct 21, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+2
Oct 21, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Oct 21, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+5
Oct 20, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+14
Oct 20, 2026Senate ILJuliana Stratton v. Don TracyD+17
Oct 20, 2026Senate GAJon Ossoff v. Mike CollinsD+8
Oct 20, 2026Governor GAKeisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick JacksonR+3
Oct 19, 2026Governor FLDavid Jolly v. Byron DonaldsR+4
Oct 19, 2026Governor OHAmy Acton v. Vivek RamaswamyR+2
Oct 18, 2026Senate OHSherrod Brown v. Jon HustedEven
Oct 16, 2026Governor CAXavier Becerra v. Steve HiltonD+26
Oct 15, 2026Senate FLAngie Nixon v. Ashley MoodyR+6
Oct 14, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Oct 14, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+2
Oct 14, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+4
Oct 2, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Sep 21, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Sep 10, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Aug 24, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Aug 8, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Jun 28, 2026Generic ballotD+5
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 2, 20242024 President, PAD+1R+1.7D+2.7D+2.5
Nov 2, 20242024 President, MIR+1R+1.4D+0.8D+3.7
Nov 2, 20242024 President, NCR+1R+3.2D+2.0D+2.6
Nov 2, 20242024 President, GAR+2R+2.2EvenD+1.6
Nov 2, 20242024 PresidentR+1R+1.5D+0.5D+3.7
Nov 1, 20242024 President, MND+5D+4.2D+0.4D+1.7
Nov 1, 20242024 President, WID+2R+0.9D+2.7D+2.9
Nov 1, 20242024 President, AZR+2R+5.5D+3.7D+4.7
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, PAD+1R+0.2D+1.2D+4.7
Oct 31, 20242024 Governor, NCD+15D+14.8D+0.4R+0.9
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, WID+7D+0.8D+6.4D+2.8
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, MND+13D+15.7R+2.9R+3.2
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, AZD+9D+2.4D+6.2D+4.9
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, MID+2D+0.3D+2.1D+4.2
Oct 30, 20242024 President, UTR+20R+21.6D+1.6R+1.6
Oct 30, 20242024 President, COD+13D+11.0D+2.2D+1.6
Oct 30, 20242024 President, MAD+33D+25.2D+7.4D+1.9
Oct 30, 20242024 President, MDD+27D+28.5R+1.5R+0.9
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, MDD+13D+11.8D+1.4D+0.6
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, MAD+26D+19.8D+6.4D+3.0
Oct 29, 20242024 President, SCR+17R+17.9D+0.9D+7.4
Oct 29, 20242024 President, OKR+34R+34.3D+0.7R+1.7
Oct 29, 20242024 Governor, WAD+17D+11.2D+6.0D+0.2
Oct 29, 20242024 President, WAD+18D+18.2EvenR+0.4
Oct 28, 20242024 President, INR+15R+19.0D+3.6D+2.4
Oct 28, 20242024 President, NJD+14D+5.9D+7.9D+9.3
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, NYD+19D+18.3D+0.9D+4.4
Oct 28, 20242024 President, OHR+8R+11.2D+3.0D+4.3
Oct 28, 20242024 President, VAD+8D+5.8D+2.4D+1.1
Oct 28, 20242024 President, TNR+23R+29.7D+6.3D+8.7
Oct 28, 20242024 President, ILD+17D+10.9D+5.9—
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, INR+15R+19.9D+5.1D+6.2
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, VAD+9D+8.9D+0.5D+1.2
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, TNR+22R+29.6D+8.0D+6.6
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, OHR+2R+3.6D+1.6D+4.3
Oct 28, 20242024 Governor, INR+11R+13.3D+1.9D+5.0
Oct 27, 20242024 President, TXR+10R+13.7D+3.7D+7.4
Oct 27, 20242024 Senate, CAD+22D+17.7D+4.7D+4.7
Oct 27, 20242024 Senate, FLR+10R+12.8D+2.4D+8.2
Oct 27, 20242024 President, CAD+26D+20.1D+5.5D+5.7
Oct 27, 20242024 Governor, MOR+15R+20.4D+5.2D+6.2
Oct 27, 20242024 President, MOR+16R+18.4D+2.4D+5.5
Oct 27, 20242024 President, NYD+18D+12.6D+5.4D+4.0
Oct 27, 20242024 Senate, MOR+13R+13.7D+1.1D+3.9
Oct 27, 20242024 President, FLR+12R+13.1D+1.5D+7.4
Oct 27, 20242024 Senate, TXR+5R+8.5D+3.7D+4.6
Oct 24, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.7D+3.7
Oct 20, 20242024 President, FLR+9R+13.1D+3.9D+7.4
Oct 20, 20242024 Senate, OHR+4R+3.6R+0.2D+4.3
Oct 20, 20242024 Governor, WAD+16D+11.2D+5.0D+0.2
Oct 20, 20242024 Senate, FLR+4R+12.8D+9.0D+8.2
Oct 19, 20242024 President, OKR+32R+34.3D+2.1R+1.7
Oct 19, 20242024 President, COD+17D+11.0D+6.4D+1.6
Oct 18, 20242024 Senate, TNR+23R+29.6D+7.0D+6.6
Oct 18, 20242024 Senate, CAD+27D+17.7D+9.1D+4.7
Oct 17, 20242024 President, SCR+17R+17.9D+1.1D+7.4
Oct 17, 20242024 President, GAR+1R+2.2D+0.8D+1.6
Oct 17, 20242024 PresidentR+2R+1.5R+0.7D+3.7
Oct 16, 20242024 Senate, TXR+6R+8.5D+2.9D+4.6
Oct 16, 20242024 President, TNR+25R+29.7D+4.9D+8.7