Pollster record · how records are scored
Siena College
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2002 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.21
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.69; 32% own record)
Average miss
6.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.6
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
143
76 races · 15 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2 | 4.3 | +0.8 | R+3.5 |
| 2004 | 2 | 2.5 | −5.0 | D+6.4 |
| 2006 | 8 | 9.9 | +2.7 | R+1.4 |
| 2008 | 3 | 10.9 | +1.7 | R+4.0 |
| 2009 | 7 | 19.2 | −5.2 | D+5.9 |
| 2010 | 21 | 5.5 | −5.0 | D+6.7 |
| 2011 | 4 | 8.5 | +1.8 | D+0.5 |
| 2012 | 21 | 7.6 | +1.1 | D+0.1 |
| 2014 | 16 | 5.9 | −0.8 | R+3.3 |
| 2016 | 16 | 4.0 | −2.0 | R+0.9 |
| 2018 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.1 | R+0.7 |
| 2020 | 4 | 6.9 | +0.1 | D+2.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | 5.7 | −0.2 | D+2.1 |
| 2024 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.4 | D+2.5 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | D+4 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | D+6 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+10 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+1 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | D+4 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+25 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+20 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+6 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | Even |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+16 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+13 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+20 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+26 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+25 |
| Jun 26, 2025 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+25 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NY | D+26 | D+18.3 | D+7.7 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2024 President, NY | D+18 | D+12.6 | D+5.4 | D+4.9 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2024 House, NY-4 | D+12 | D+2.3 | D+9.7 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2024 House, NY-1 | R+3 | R+10.4 | D+7.4 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NY | D+23 | D+18.3 | D+4.7 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 2024 President, NY | D+13 | D+12.6 | R+0.1 | D+4.9 |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2024 House, NY-3 | D+4 | D+3.6 | D+0.4 | R+1.2 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+8 | R+16.4 | D+8.4 | D+9.9 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+12 | R+19.4 | D+7.4 | D+10.1 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-19 | D+5 | R+1.9 | D+6.9 | R+3.8 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-22 | D+4 | D+6.1 | R+2.1 | R+8.5 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | D+2 | D+3.4 | R+1.4 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | R+2 | R+1.0 | R+1.0 | R+2.0 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, TX | R+9 | R+10.9 | D+1.9 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OH | R+24 | R+25.0 | D+1.0 | D+6.4 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OH | Even | R+6.1 | D+6.1 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NY | D+20 | D+14.0 | D+6.0 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NY | D+11 | D+7.3 | D+3.7 | D+1.0 |
| Sep 30, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-11 | R+6 | R+19.2 | D+13.2 | — |
| Sep 28, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-22 | R+5 | D+6.1 | R+11.1 | R+8.5 |
| Sep 28, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-19 | D+5 | R+1.9 | D+6.9 | R+3.8 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NY | D+17 | D+7.3 | D+9.7 | D+1.0 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+7 | R+16.4 | D+9.4 | D+9.9 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+8 | R+19.4 | D+11.4 | D+10.1 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NY | D+19 | D+14.0 | D+5.0 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 Senate, OH | D+3 | R+6.1 | D+9.1 | D+3.9 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OH | R+23 | R+25.0 | D+2.0 | D+6.4 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | 2022 Governor, TX | R+7 | R+10.9 | D+3.9 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | D+1 | R+1.0 | D+2.0 | R+2.0 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | D+5 | D+3.4 | D+1.6 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 22, 2020 | 2020 House, NY-24 | Even | R+2.4 | D+2.4 | D+1.1 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 House, NY-22 | D+9 | R+1.4 | D+10.4 | — |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 2020 President, NY | D+32 | D+22.1 | D+9.9 | D+8.3 |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 2020 House, NY-24 | D+3 | R+2.4 | D+4.9 | D+1.1 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NY | D+13 | D+24.0 | R+11.0 | R+3.0 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NY | D+23 | D+33.4 | R+10.4 | R+6.9 |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-24 | R+14 | D+0.9 | R+14.9 | — |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-22 | D+1 | D+2.3 | R+1.3 | R+4.9 |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-19 | R+1 | D+8.1 | R+9.1 | R+5.9 |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-27 | R+3 | D+4.8 | R+7.8 | R+9.3 |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2018 House, NY-25 | D+17 | D+21.0 | R+4.0 | — |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NY | D+20 | D+24.0 | R+4.0 | R+3.0 |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NY | D+32 | D+33.4 | R+1.4 | R+6.9 |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NY | D+42 | D+42.0 | Even | D+2.5 |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2016 President, NY | D+17 | D+24.0 | R+7.0 | R+3.6 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-19 | R+6 | R+3.2 | R+2.8 | D+4.3 |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-22 | R+4 | R+3.8 | R+0.2 | — |
| Oct 31, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-3 | D+7 | D+11.7 | R+4.7 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-1 | R+21 | R+9.8 | R+11.2 | — |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-24 | R+23 | R+13.2 | R+9.8 | — |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NY | D+39 | D+42.0 | R+3.0 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2016 President, NY | D+24 | D+24.0 | Even | R+3.6 |
| Oct 2, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-3 | D+16 | D+11.7 | D+4.3 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-1 | R+15 | R+9.8 | R+5.2 | — |
| Sep 26, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-24 | R+19 | R+13.2 | R+5.8 | — |
| Sep 23, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-22 | R+5 | R+3.8 | R+1.2 | — |
| Sep 21, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-19 | R+1 | R+3.2 | D+2.2 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 13, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NY | D+46 | D+42.0 | D+4.0 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 13, 2016 | 2016 President, NY | D+21 | D+24.0 | R+3.0 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-1 | R+5 | R+4.9 | R+0.1 | D+8.8 |