Pollster record · how records are scored
Ragnar Research Partners
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2020 to 2024 · 100% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −3.24; 2% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
2.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
5
3 races · 10 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | 4.8 | −3.2 | D+3.0 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1.6 | −3.6 | — |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2026 | TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez v. Eric Flores | R+3 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | WI-1 | Mitchell Berman v. Bryan Steil | R+9 |
| Mar 14, 2026 | AZ-6 | JoAnna Mendoza v. Juan Ciscomani | D+3 |
| Mar 14, 2026 | IA-3 | Sarah Trone Garriott v. Zach Nunn | R+6 |
| Mar 14, 2026 | MI-4 | Sean McCann v. Bill Huizenga | R+6 |
| Mar 14, 2026 | MN-1 | Jake Johnson v. Brad Finstad | R+10 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | NC-10 | Ashley Bell v. Pat Harrigan | R+15 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | NC-14 | LaKesha Womack v. Tim Moore | R+8 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | VA-1 | Shannon Taylor v. Robert Wittman | R+4 |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | Even |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 House, VA-7R-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+2.6 | R+0.6 | — |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 House, VA-7R-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+2.6 | R+1.6 | — |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 House, VA-7R-ALIGNED | Even | D+2.6 | R+2.6 | — |
| Oct 21, 2020 | 2020 Governor, INR-ALIGNED | R+26 | R+24.5 | R+1.5 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 21, 2020 | 2020 President, INR-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+16.1 | D+8.1 | D+5.3 |