Pollster record · how records are scored
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2014 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.02
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.73; 5% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
4.2
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
7
7 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1 | 5.4 | −2.7 | R+2.8 |
| 2016 | 1 | 6.0 | +1.9 | D+5.1 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.3 | −2.6 | R+2.1 |
| 2022 | 1 | 2.1 | −1.0 | R+5.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | 6.6 | +0.6 | D+0.8 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+7 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | R+2 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | R+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 President, TX | R+5 | R+13.7 | D+8.7 | D+7.0 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 Senate, TX | R+4 | R+8.5 | D+4.5 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, TX | R+13 | R+10.9 | R+2.1 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President, TX | R+5 | R+5.6 | D+0.3 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 Senate, TX | R+7 | R+9.6 | D+2.3 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 President, TX | R+3 | R+9.0 | D+6.0 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 4, 2014 | 2014 Governor, TX | R+15 | R+20.4 | D+5.4 | D+8.1 |