Pollster record · how records are scored
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov
Method not recorded · scored polls from 2018 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.09
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.68; 5% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
3.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
7
7 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2 | 4.6 | +0.3 | R+0.9 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.1 | −3.3 | R+2.3 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0.1 | −3.5 | R+3.3 |
| 2024 | 2 | 5.1 | −1.0 | R+0.8 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+10 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 President, TX | R+5 | R+13.7 | D+8.7 | D+7.0 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 Senate, TX | R+7 | R+8.5 | D+1.5 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Governor, TX | R+11 | R+10.9 | R+0.1 | D+3.2 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President, TX | R+5 | R+5.6 | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 Senate, TX | R+8 | R+9.6 | D+1.6 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 Governor, TX | R+19 | R+13.3 | R+5.7 | R+4.6 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TX | R+6 | R+2.6 | R+3.4 | R+2.9 |