Pollster record · how records are scored
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.49
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.81; 62% own record)
Average miss
5.2
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.8
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
655
371 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 109 | 7.9 | −0.5 | R+0.7 |
| 1999 | 1 | 6.1 | +0.5 | — |
| 2000 | 86 | 4.8 | −0.4 | R+0.7 |
| 2001 | 2 | 1.5 | −2.3 | R+4.1 |
| 2002 | 57 | 4.7 | −1.3 | R+2.7 |
| 2003 | 2 | 5.8 | +0.6 | R+3.1 |
| 2004 | 99 | 3.5 | −1.0 | R+1.4 |
| 2005 | 3 | 6.4 | +2.3 | R+2.4 |
| 2006 | 91 | 4.6 | −0.8 | R+1.4 |
| 2008 | 60 | 4.6 | −0.0 | R+0.9 |
| 2009 | 2 | 7.4 | +1.3 | D+1.4 |
| 2010 | 47 | 5.8 | −0.6 | D+0.9 |
| 2012 | 37 | 5.4 | −0.4 | R+2.8 |
| 2014 | 8 | 6.4 | −0.7 | R+0.4 |
| 2015 | 2 | 7.4 | −1.9 | R+1.3 |
| 2016 | 14 | 6.2 | −2.3 | R+1.7 |
| 2017 | 1 | 7.9 | +0.8 | R+2.5 |
| 2018 | 14 | 3.2 | −2.4 | R+1.5 |
| 2019 | 4 | 2.4 | −4.1 | R+0.8 |
| 2020 | 6 | 7.5 | −0.4 | D+0.1 |
| 2022 | 3 | 6.5 | −2.9 | R+1.2 |
| 2023 | 1 | 4.8 | +2.1 | R+3.1 |
| 2024 | 6 | 4.8 | −1.3 | R+1.2 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+7 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | D+3 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Governor MN | Amy Klobuchar v. Lisa Demuth | D+8 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 House, SD-1 | R+37 | R+44.1 | D+7.1 | D+8.2 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 President, SD | R+26 | R+29.2 | D+3.2 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 Senate, FL | R+7 | R+12.8 | D+5.8 | D+8.2 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 President, FL | R+6 | R+13.1 | D+7.1 | D+7.3 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MN | D+11 | D+15.7 | R+4.7 | R+2.9 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 President, MN | D+5 | D+4.2 | D+0.8 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 2, 2023 | 2023 Governor, MS | R+8 | R+3.2 | R+4.8 | R+1.7 |
| Sep 28, 2022 | 2022 Governor, FL | R+11 | R+19.4 | D+8.4 | D+10.1 |
| Sep 28, 2022 | 2022 Senate, FL | R+6 | R+16.4 | D+10.4 | D+9.8 |
| Sep 14, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MN | D+7 | D+7.7 | R+0.7 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 21, 2020 | 2020 President, SD | R+11 | R+26.2 | D+15.2 | D+11.4 |
| Oct 15, 2020 | 2020 President, KY | R+17 | R+25.9 | D+8.9 | D+8.7 |
| Oct 15, 2020 | 2020 Senate, KY | R+9 | R+19.5 | D+10.5 | D+10.3 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | D+3 | R+3.4 | D+6.4 | D+5.4 |
| Sep 23, 2020 | 2020 President, MN | D+6 | D+7.1 | R+1.1 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 23, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MN | D+8 | D+5.2 | D+2.8 | D+4.5 |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2019 Governor, LA | D+2 | D+2.7 | R+0.7 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2019 Governor, MS | R+3 | R+5.1 | D+2.1 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 2019 Governor, KY | Even | D+0.4 | R+0.4 | D+8.1 |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2019 Governor, LA | D+9 | D+2.7 | D+6.3 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 31, 2018 | 2018 Governor, SD | R+3 | R+3.4 | D+0.4 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2018 Governor, SD | Even | R+3.4 | D+3.4 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2018 House, SD-1 | R+23 | R+24.3 | D+1.3 | D+11.3 |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MN | D+23 | D+24.1 | R+1.1 | R+2.9 |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MN | D+6 | D+11.4 | R+5.4 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MN | D+6 | D+10.6 | R+4.6 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-26 | R+1 | D+1.7 | R+2.7 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-27 | R+2 | D+6.0 | R+8.0 | R+4.1 |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FL | D+1 | R+0.1 | D+1.1 | D+1.4 |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FL | D+1 | R+0.4 | D+1.4 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 26, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MD | R+15 | R+11.8 | R+3.2 | R+8.1 |
| Sep 12, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MN | D+7 | D+10.6 | R+3.6 | D+0.5 |
| Sep 12, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MN | D+9 | D+11.4 | R+2.4 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 12, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MN | D+30 | D+24.1 | D+5.9 | R+2.9 |
| Sep 12, 2017 | 2017 Governor, VA | D+1 | D+8.9 | R+7.9 | R+5.5 |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2016 Senate, MO | R+1 | R+2.8 | D+1.8 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2016 President, MO | R+5 | R+18.6 | D+13.6 | D+6.7 |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2016 Governor, MO | D+1 | R+5.6 | D+6.6 | D+9.4 |
| Oct 21, 2016 | 2016 President, MN | D+8 | D+1.5 | D+6.5 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2016 House, SD-1 | R+24 | R+28.2 | D+4.2 | D+18.2 |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2016 President, SD | R+7 | R+29.8 | D+22.8 | D+12.8 |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2016 Senate, SD | R+38 | R+43.7 | D+5.7 | D+18.7 |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2016 President, LA | R+20 | R+19.6 | R+0.4 | D+8.5 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 President, MT | R+10 | R+20.4 | D+10.4 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 House, MT-1 | R+13 | R+15.6 | D+2.6 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 Governor, MT | D+2 | D+3.9 | R+1.9 | D+5.1 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FL | R+7 | R+7.7 | D+0.7 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 President, FL | D+4 | R+1.2 | D+5.2 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 13, 2016 | 2016 President, MN | D+6 | D+1.5 | D+4.5 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 23, 2015 | 2015 Governor, MS | R+38 | R+33.9 | R+4.1 | — |
| Oct 7, 2015 | 2015 Governor, KY | D+2 | R+8.7 | D+10.7 | D+12.0 |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 Senate, SD | R+9 | R+20.9 | D+11.9 | D+7.2 |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 House, SD-1 | R+21 | R+33.1 | D+12.1 | D+12.8 |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 Governor, SD | R+36 | R+45.0 | D+9.0 | D+15.2 |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MN | D+9 | D+10.2 | R+1.2 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MN | D+5 | D+5.6 | R+0.6 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 7, 2014 | 2014 Governor, WY | R+25 | R+32.1 | D+7.1 | D+8.1 |
| Sep 9, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MN | D+12 | D+5.6 | D+6.4 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 9, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MN | D+13 | D+10.2 | D+2.8 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 31, 2012 | 2012 Senate, FL | D+6 | D+13.0 | R+7.0 | R+4.5 |