Pollster record · how records are scored
GS Strategy Group
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2012 to 2020 · 100% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.06
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.52; 3% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
7.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
7
7 races · 6 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 3 | 4.3 | +0.4 | D+1.0 |
| 2016 | 2 | 5.6 | +1.1 | D+0.8 |
| 2018 | 1 | 24.6 | +13.3 | R+9.4 |
| 2020 | 1 | 1.3 | −6.1 | — |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Governor IA | Rob Sand v. Zach Lahn | D+11 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Governor OH | Amy Acton v. Vivek Ramaswamy | D+5 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Governor TX | Gina Hinojosa v. Greg Abbott | R+2 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Senate IA | Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson | D+2 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Senate OH | Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted | D+6 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Senate TX | James Talarico v. Ken Paxton | D+5 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-7R-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+3.3 | R+1.3 | — |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2018 House, TX-23R-ALIGNED | R+25 | R+0.4 | R+24.6 | R+11.3 |
| Oct 4, 2016 | 2016 Senate, ILR-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+15.1 | R+11.1 | R+4.4 |
| Oct 4, 2016 | 2016 President, ILR-ALIGNED | D+17 | D+17.1 | R+0.1 | R+0.6 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PAR-ALIGNED | Even | D+9.1 | R+8.9 | R+2.3 |
| Oct 8, 2012 | 2012 Senate, AZR-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+3.0 | R+3.0 | D+0.9 |
| Sep 24, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MER-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+17.5 | D+1.0 | R+0.6 |