House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Public Policy Polling

Method: ivr mix · scored polls from 2008 to 2025 · 37% of scored polls were for a party or campaign

Versus the field
−0.35
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.46; 69% own record)
Average miss
4.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
652
316 races · 50 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2008843.8−1.1D+1.2
200995.8−2.6R+0.6
2010975.6−0.5D+0.6
201196.7−2.1R+2.3
20122113.5−0.7R+0.7
201378.9+0.9R+1.2
2014775.0+0.1R+0.2
201510.2−6.2R+3.0
2016534.5−0.3R+1.8
201715.9−1.1R+4.4
2018233.9−1.0R+3.3
2020506.3+0.8R+0.4
202114.9+0.6R+2.5
2022123.6−2.4D+0.7
202312.2−2.1D+3.1
2024145.8−0.0R+0.8
202527.4−1.1R+3.5
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 11, 2026NC-11Jamie Ager v. Jennifer BalkcomD+3
Sep 10, 2026MT-1Sam Forstag v. Aaron FlintD+2
Sep 10, 2026SC-1Nancy Lacore v. Jenny Costa HoneycuttR+1
Sep 10, 2026NY-21Blake Gendebien v. Anthony ConstantinoR+5
Sep 9, 2026Senate SDBrian Bengs v. Mike RoundsR+3
Sep 2, 2026Governor NELynne Walz v. Jim PillenR+1
Aug 20, 2026NC-7Kimberly Hardy v. David RouzerR+6
Aug 8, 2026Senate KSAdam Hamilton v. Roger MarshallR+1
Jul 22, 2026Senate LAJamie Davis v. Julia LetlowR+4
Jul 18, 2026FL-8Jennifer Jenkins v. Mike HaridopolosR+9
Jul 17, 2026Governor SCJermaine Johnson v. Alan WilsonR+8
Jul 16, 2026Governor NVAaron Ford v. Joe LombardoEven
Jul 11, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+4
Jul 7, 2026Senate METroy Jackson v. Susan CollinsD+5
Jun 4, 2026Senate IAJosh Turek v. Ashley HinsonEven
May 30, 2026Senate SDBrian Bengs v. Mike RoundsR+4
May 23, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+7
May 23, 2026Governor TXGina Hinojosa v. Greg AbbottR+4
May 20, 2026FL-13Leela Gray v. Anna Paulina LunaR+2
Apr 25, 2026KY-6Zach Dembo v. Ralph AlvaradoEven
Apr 14, 2026IA-2Lindsay James v. Joe MitchellD+3
Apr 7, 2026Governor NELynne Walz v. Jim PillenR+5
Mar 17, 2026Senate IDTodd Achilles v. James RischR+14
Mar 14, 2026Senate NCRoy Cooper v. Michael WhatleyD+3
Mar 11, 2026TX-23Katy Padilla Stout v. Brandon HerreraR+2
Mar 5, 2026Senate TXJames Talarico v. Ken PaxtonD+2
Feb 18, 2026Senate SDBrian Bengs v. Mike RoundsR+12
Feb 3, 2026MN-1Jake Johnson v. Brad FinstadR+3
Jan 30, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Jan 17, 2026Senate AKMary Peltola v. Dan SullivanD+2
Jan 17, 2026MI-10Christina Hines v. Mike BouchardD+2
Jan 14, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Dec 19, 2025Senate KYCharles Booker v. Andy BarrR+11
Dec 11, 2025NY-1Chris Gallant v. Nicholas J. LaLotaR+3
Nov 21, 2025MI-4Sean McCann v. Bill HuizengaR+2
Nov 19, 2025PA-10Janelle Stelson v. Scott PerryD+4
Nov 14, 2025Senate SDBrian Bengs v. Mike RoundsR+13
Oct 15, 2025WI-3Rebecca Cooke v. Derrick Van OrdenD+2
Oct 15, 2025AZ-6JoAnna Mendoza v. Juan CiscomaniD+1
Oct 11, 2025PA-1Bob Harvie v. Brian FitzpatrickEven
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 8, 20252025-GOV-VA D-ALIGNEDD+9D+15.4R+6.4R+6.2
Oct 3, 20252025-GOV-NJ D-ALIGNEDD+6D+14.4R+8.4R+9.3
Oct 18, 20242024 House, GA-2D-ALIGNEDD+11D+12.7R+1.7R+5.8
Oct 17, 20242024 President, WAD-ALIGNEDD+15D+18.2R+3.2D+1.6
Oct 17, 20242024 President, ORD-ALIGNEDD+12D+14.3R+2.3—
Oct 17, 20242024 Governor, WAD-ALIGNEDD+7D+11.2R+4.2D+3.6
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, WAD-ALIGNEDD+15D+18.4R+3.5D+3.2
Oct 2, 20242024 House, WA-3D-ALIGNEDEvenD+3.9R+3.9—
Sep 28, 20242024 President, UTD-ALIGNEDR+15R+21.6D+6.6R+1.9
Sep 28, 20242024 Governor, UTD-ALIGNEDR+12R+24.4D+12.4R+6.6
Sep 26, 20242024 President, FLD-ALIGNEDR+4R+13.1D+9.1D+7.4
Sep 26, 20242024 Senate, TXD-ALIGNEDR+2R+8.5D+7.0D+4.6
Sep 26, 20242024 Senate, FLD-ALIGNEDR+2R+12.8D+10.8D+8.1
Sep 26, 20242024 President, TXD-ALIGNEDR+5R+13.7D+8.7D+7.3
Sep 17, 20242024 Senate, MDD+17D+11.8D+5.2D+0.2
Sep 17, 20242024 President, MDD+31D+28.5D+2.5R+1.5
Oct 20, 20232023 Governor, MSD-ALIGNEDR+1R+3.2D+2.2R+4.8
Oct 20, 20222022 Senate, WAD-ALIGNEDD+10D+14.5R+4.5R+6.5
Oct 11, 20222022 Governor, ILD+15D+12.5D+2.5D+1.4
Oct 11, 20222022 Senate, ILD+14D+15.3R+1.3D+1.7
Oct 8, 20222022 Senate, NCD-ALIGNEDR+1R+3.2D+2.2D+0.5
Oct 7, 20222022 Governor, NMD+8D+6.4D+1.6R+0.1
Sep 28, 20222022 Senate, WAD+12D+14.5R+2.5R+6.5
Sep 27, 20222022 Governor, WID+2D+3.4R+1.4R+3.3
Sep 27, 20222022 Senate, WIEvenR+1.0D+1.0R+2.0
Sep 22, 20222022 House, IL-17D-ALIGNEDD+9D+4.0D+5.0—
Sep 20, 20222022 House, WA-3D-ALIGNEDR+4D+0.8R+4.8—
Sep 9, 20222022 Governor, NYD-ALIGNEDD+15D+7.3D+7.7D+1.2
Jun 30, 20222022 House, NY-19D-ALIGNEDR+3D+5.3R+8.3R+12.2
Sep 18, 20212021 Governor, VAD-ALIGNEDD+3R+1.9D+4.9D+3.6
Nov 2, 20202020 Senate, IAD+1R+6.6D+7.6D+7.5
Nov 2, 20202020 President, IAD+1R+8.2D+9.2D+7.2
Oct 30, 20202020 Senate, MID-ALIGNEDD+10D+1.7D+8.3D+5.5
Oct 30, 20202020 Senate, MND+9D+5.2D+3.8D+4.4
Oct 30, 20202020 President, MID-ALIGNEDD+10D+2.8D+7.2D+4.5
Oct 30, 20202020 President, MND+11D+7.1D+3.9D+1.9
Oct 29, 20202020 President, PAD-ALIGNEDD+7D+1.2D+5.8D+4.2
Oct 29, 20202020 President, FLD-ALIGNEDD+7R+3.4D+10.4D+5.4
Oct 29, 20202020 President, TXD+2R+5.6D+7.6D+2.8
Oct 29, 20202020 House, NC-9D-ALIGNEDR+2R+11.2D+9.2D+11.0
Oct 28, 20202020 Senate, GAD+3R+1.8D+4.8D+1.4
Oct 28, 20202020 President, GAD+2D+0.2D+1.8D+0.5
Oct 27, 20202020 President, NCD-ALIGNEDD+4R+1.3D+5.3D+2.8
Oct 27, 20202020 Senate, MTD-ALIGNEDD+1R+10.0D+11.0D+7.7
Oct 27, 20202020 Senate, NCD-ALIGNEDD+3R+1.7D+4.7D+6.1
Oct 27, 20202020 President, MTD-ALIGNEDR+2R+16.4D+14.4D+8.8
Oct 27, 20202020 House, AZ-6D-ALIGNEDD+4R+4.3D+8.3D+2.9
Oct 22, 20202020 President, PAD-ALIGNEDD+5D+1.2D+3.8D+4.2
Oct 22, 20202020 Senate, MID-ALIGNEDD+9D+1.7D+7.3D+5.5
Oct 22, 20202020 President, MID-ALIGNEDD+7D+2.8D+4.2D+4.5
Oct 22, 20202020 House, VA-5D-ALIGNEDD+3R+5.1D+8.1D+2.6
Oct 20, 20202020 President, KSD-ALIGNEDR+12R+14.7D+2.7D+4.0
Oct 20, 20202020 Senate, AKD-ALIGNEDR+3R+12.7D+9.7D+8.6
Oct 20, 20202020 President, AKD-ALIGNEDR+5R+10.1D+5.1D+4.1
Oct 20, 20202020 Senate, KSD-ALIGNEDEvenR+11.4D+11.4D+7.0
Oct 15, 20202020 Governor, WAD-ALIGNEDD+16D+13.4D+2.6D+2.6
Oct 15, 20202020 President, WAD-ALIGNEDD+23D+19.2D+3.8D+2.9
Oct 15, 20202020 House, OH-12D-ALIGNEDR+4R+13.5D+9.5—
Oct 15, 20202020 Senate, TXR+3R+9.6D+6.6D+3.5
Oct 14, 20202020 House, NY-24D-ALIGNEDD+2R+2.4D+4.4D+2.2