Governors · 2026
Wyoming Governor
Kenneth Casner (D)v.Eric Barlow (R)LIKELY R
Open seat, currently Republican.
Projected margin
R+24.6
Nine in ten outcomes: D+1 to R+50
Chance of winning
94%
Eric Barlow
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
R+24.6
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineR+1.1
Partisan leanR+26.4
National environmentD+2.9
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundamentals estimateR+24.6
Input: partisan lean
R+44.3
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Theresa A. Livingston | Mark Gordon | R+58.3 |
| 2018 | Mary Throne | Mark Gordon | R+39.6 |
| 2014 | Pete Gosar | Matt Hansen Mead | R+32.1 |