Governors · 2026

Arizona Governor

Katie Hobbs (D)v.Andy Biggs (R)LIKELY D

Incumbent: Katie Hobbs, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+7.8

Nine in ten outcomes: D+17 to R+1

Chance of winning

92%

Katie Hobbs

Polls alone

D+7.8

17 polls from 13 pollsters; latest Aug 19. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

D+11.8

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanR+2.4

National environmentD+2.9

IncumbencyD+8.2

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+4.2

Fundamentals estimateD+11.8

Input: partisan lean

R+4.1

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 17 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Hobbs	Biggs	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Aug 17–19	NextGen PollingREP.-ALIGNED	1,627 LV	39	38	D+1	D+4.8 moved 3.8 toward D	11%	source
Aug 17–19	NextGenP	1,378 RV	39	37.5	D+2	D+1.6 moved 0.1 toward D	6.3%	source
Aug 15–18	HighGround Inc.	400 LV	49.5	34.3	D+15	D+15.0 moved 0.2 toward R	10%	source
Aug 14–17	Quantus Insights	780 LV	49.1	43.2	D+6	D+6.2 moved 0.3 toward D	10%	source
Aug 13–16	Kreate StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED for American Encore	900 LV	45	40	D+5	D+8.7 moved 3.7 toward D	10%	source
Aug 10–13	Noble Predictive Insights	923 LV	48.4	35.4	D+13	D+12.8 moved 0.2 toward R	11%	source
Aug 11–13	Stealth Analytics	530 LV	43	38	D+5	D+5.1 moved 0.1 toward D	9.8%	source
Aug 9–11	GrayHouseREP.-ALIGNED	600 LV	49	45	D+4	D+7.7 moved 3.7 toward D	9.6%	source
Jul 27–30	Tarrance Group for Democracy Defense Project	600 LV	52	48	D+4	D+4.1 moved 0.1 toward D	8.0%	source
Jul 26–28	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP	913 LV	52	44	D+8	D+7.8 moved 0.2 toward R	9.1%	source
May 5–7	Noble Predictive Insights	996 RV	41	37	D+4	D+3.8 moved 0.2 toward R	1.0%	source
Apr 20–24	TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers	1,159 LV	48.4	37.6	D+11	D+13.6 moved 2.8 toward D	2.8%	source
Feb 23–26	Noble Predictive Insights	1,023 RV	42	37	D+5	D+4.8 moved 0.2 toward R	0.2%	source
Jan 22–24	Center for Excellence in Polling	519 LV	50	41	D+9	D+9.0	0.9%	source
Dec 15–17 ’25	NextGenP	2,725 RV	51	32	D+19	D+19.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.2%	source
Nov 8–10 ’25	Emerson College	850 RV	44.1	43.4	D+1	D+0.7	0.3%	source
Aug 11–18 ’25	Noble Predictive Insights	948 RV	39	37	D+2	D+1.8 moved 0.2 toward R	0.0%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Katie Hobbs	Kari Lake	D+0.7
2018	David Garcia	Doug Ducey	R+14.2
2014	Fred Duval	Doug Ducey	R+11.8