Governors · 2026

Ohio Governor

Amy Acton (D)v.Vivek Ramaswamy (R)LEAN D

Open seat, currently Republican.

Projected margin

D+3.5

Nine in ten outcomes: D+12 to R+5

Chance of winning

75%

Amy Acton

Polls alone

D+3.5

23 polls from 18 pollsters; latest Oct 6. Weight in projection: 100%.

Fundamentals alone

R+3.9

Weight in projection: 0%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.4).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineR+1.1

Partisan leanR+5.8

National environmentD+3.0

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundamentals estimateR+3.9

Input: partisan lean

R+9.7

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Tilt R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 23 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Acton	Ramaswamy	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Oct 5–6	co/efficientREP.-ALIGNED	925 LV	43	45	R+2	D+2.6 moved 4.6 toward D	13%	source
Sep 29 – Oct 5	SSRS for CNN	760 LV	50	42	D+8	D+7.8 moved 0.2 toward R	12%	source
Sep 22 – Oct 1	The New York Times/Siena College	616 LV	49	45	D+4	D+4.1 moved 0.1 toward D	13%	source
Sep 18–30	YouGov	3,780 LV	48	44	D+4	D+3.6 moved 0.4 toward R	12%	source
Sep 24–27	Marist College	1,298 RV	50	44	D+6	D+5.3 moved 0.7 toward R	6.7%	source
Sep 26–27	Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project	680 LV	45.5	47	R+2	R+1.6 moved 0.1 toward R	11%	source
Sep 23–27	Suffolk University for USA Today	500 LV	50	41	D+9	D+8.3 moved 0.7 toward R	12%	source
Sep 1–10	YouGov for Bowling Green State University	1,000 LV	48	45	D+3	D+2.6 moved 0.4 toward R	4.0%	source
Aug 11–13	Wedgewood Polls	800 LV	47	46	D+1	D+1.2 moved 0.2 toward D	4.6%	source
Aug 6–10	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,008 RV	48	50	R+2	R+1.9 moved 0.1 toward D	3.1%	source
Jul 29 – Aug 4	Tulchin ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney General	600 LV	46	44	D+2	R+1.5 moved 3.5 toward R	3.9%	source
Jun 15–28	The New York Times/Siena College	601 LV	46.7	46.9	Even	R+0.1 moved 0.1 toward D	1.1%	source
Jun 14–16	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP	800 LV	47	44	D+3	D+2.8 moved 0.2 toward R	1.7%	source
Jun 2–4	Tulchin ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney General	600 LV	47	44	D+3	R+0.5 moved 3.5 toward R	0.6%	source
May 28 – Jun 1	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,015 RV	50	49	D+1	D+1.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.4%	source
Apr 7–14	Bowling Green State University/YouGov	1,000 RV	47	48	R+1	R+1.0	0.3%	source
Apr 3–9	Echelon Insights for NetChoice	413 LV	44	49	R+5	R+4.7 moved 0.3 toward D	0.5%	source
Mar 13–14	Quantus Insights	809 LV	45.9	44.9	D+1	D+1.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.3%	source
Feb 10–22	EMC Research for Ohio Environmental Council	1,343 LV	53	43	D+10	D+10.0	0.2%	source
Dec 6–8 ’25	Emerson College	850 RV	45.9	45.2	D+1	D+1.0 moved 0.3 toward D	0.0%	source
Dec 3–8 ’25	Data Targeting for T Roosevelt Action	603 LV	43	45	R+2	R+2.0	0.0%	source
Oct 2–14 ’25	Bowling Green State University/YouGov	800 RV	47	50	R+3	R+3.0	0.0%	source
Sep 19–22 ’25	Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for Ohio Federation of Teachers	800 LV	46	45	D+1	R+2.5 moved 3.5 toward R	0.0%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Nan Whaley	Mike DeWine	R+25.0
2018	Richard Cordray	Mike DeWine	R+3.7
2014	Edward FitzGerald	John Richard Kasich	R+30.6