Ohio Governor
Open seat, currently Republican.
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
All 17 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Acton | Ramaswamy | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1–10 | YouGov for Bowling Green State University | 1,000 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | D+2.5 moved 0.5 toward R | 23% | source |
| Aug 11–13 | Wedgewood Polls | 800 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 | D+1.4 moved 0.4 toward D | 16% | source |
| Aug 6–10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 1,008 RV | 48 | 50 | R+2 | R+1.9 moved 0.1 toward D | 11% | source |
| Jul 29 – Aug 4 | Tulchin ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney General | 600 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | R+1.5 moved 3.5 toward R | 14% | source |
| Jun 15–28 | The New York Times/Siena College | 601 LV | 46.7 | 46.9 | Even | D+0.4 moved 0.6 toward D | 10% | source |
| Jun 14–16 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP | 800 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+2.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 8.7% | source |
| Jun 2–4 | Tulchin ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney General | 600 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | R+0.5 moved 3.5 toward R | 3.4% | source |
| May 28 – Jun 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 1,015 RV | 50 | 49 | D+1 | D+1.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 2.3% | source |
| Apr 7–14 | Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 1,000 RV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | R+0.9 moved 0.1 toward D | 2.1% | source |
| Apr 3–9 | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 413 LV | 44 | 49 | R+5 | R+4.7 moved 0.3 toward D | 3.9% | source |
| Mar 13–14 | Quantus Insights | 809 LV | 45.9 | 44.9 | D+1 | D+1.3 moved 0.3 toward D | 2.4% | source |
| Feb 10–22 | EMC Research for Ohio Environmental Council | 1,343 LV | 53 | 43 | D+10 | D+10.0 | 2.0% | source |
| Dec 3–8 ’25 | Data Targeting for T Roosevelt Action | 603 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | R+2.0 | 0.8% | source |
| Dec 6–8 ’25 | Emerson College | 850 RV | 45.9 | 45.2 | D+1 | D+0.7 | 0.6% | source |
| Oct 2–14 ’25 | Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 800 RV | 47 | 50 | R+3 | R+2.9 moved 0.1 toward D | 0.1% | source |
| Sep 19–22 ’25 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for Ohio Federation of Teachers | 800 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | R+2.3 moved 3.3 toward R | 0.4% | source |
| Aug 18–19 ’25 | Emerson College | 1,000 RV | 39.4 | 48.7 | R+9 | R+9.3 | 0.1% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Nan Whaley | Mike DeWine | R+25.0 |
| 2018 | Richard Cordray | Mike DeWine | R+3.7 |
| 2014 | Edward FitzGerald | John Richard Kasich | R+30.6 |