House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Governors · 2026

Michigan Governor

Jocelyn Benson (D)v.John James (R)LIKELY D

Open seat, currently Democratic.

Projected margin
D+7.7
Nine in ten outcomes: D+17 to R+1
Chance of winning
91%
Jocelyn Benson
Polls alone
D+7.7
26 polls from 14 pollsters; latest Sep 14. Weight in projection: 100%.
Fundamentals alone
D+1.8
Weight in projection: 0%.
Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10D+15D+20Mar ’25JunSepDecMar ’26JunSepD+7.7Election Day
adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor
Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineR+1.1
Partisan lean0.0
National environmentD+2.9
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundamentals estimateD+1.8
Input: partisan lean
D+0.1
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D
Not an input to the projection.
Table view

All 26 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

DatesPollsterSampleBensonJamesAs publishedAdjustedShare of average
Sep 10–14The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government803 LV5341D+12D+11.7
moved 0.3 toward R
12%
source
Sep 12–14Emerson College
for Nexstar
1,000 LV48.641.9D+7D+6.7
13%
source
Aug 31 – Sep 6CNN843 LV5041D+9D+8.9
moved 0.1 toward R
9.0%
source
Aug 31 – Sep 3Glengariff Group
for Detroit News | WDIV-TV
600 LV4743D+4D+4.4
moved 0.4 toward D
9.1%
source
Aug 22–28EPIC-MRA
for MIRS
600 LV4541D+4D+4.1
moved 0.1 toward D
8.9%
source
Aug 10–20Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov779 LV5243D+9D+8.9
moved 0.1 toward R
7.6%
source
Aug 9–11Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research
for AARP
877 LV4944D+5D+4.8
moved 0.2 toward R
7.6%
source
Aug 6–10TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED
for League of American Workers
1,215 LV5336.6D+16D+19.2
moved 2.8 toward D
7.3%
source
Aug 6–10Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
1,006 RV5247D+5D+5.1
moved 0.1 toward D
4.8%
source
Jul 24–31EPIC-MRA
for MIRS News Service
600 LV4738D+9D+9.1
moved 0.1 toward D
3.2%
source
Jul 28–29Mitchell Research & Communications672 LV4644D+2D+2.2
moved 0.2 toward D
6.4%
source
Jul 22–24Glengariff Group
for Business Leaders for Michigan | Michigan Education Association
600 LV43.738.7D+5D+5.4
moved 0.4 toward D
2.8%
source
Jun 11–13Mitchell Research & Communications
for MIRS News Service
827 LV5140D+11D+11.2
moved 0.2 toward D
1.8%
source
May 20–23TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED
for League of American Workers
1,163 LV48.938D+11D+13.7
moved 2.8 toward D
1.4%
source
May 1–7Mitchell Research & Communications
for MIRS News Service
606 LV4230D+12D+12.2
moved 0.2 toward D
0.6%
source
Apr 28 – May 1Glengariff Group
for Detroit Regional Chamber
600 LV34.229.2D+5D+5.4
moved 0.4 toward D
0.5%
source
Mar 23–29Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED
for Benson's campaign
800 LV4036D+4D+0.3
moved 3.7 toward R
1.5%
source
Mar 2–24Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research1,000 A28.521D+8D+7.5
0.7%
source
Mar 2–24Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov1,000 A29.522.7D+7D+6.7
moved 0.1 toward R
0.4%
source
Feb 9–16Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED
for Benson's campaign
800 LV3936D+3R+0.7
moved 3.7 toward R
0.5%
source
Jan 27 – Feb 2Glengariff Group
for Detroit Regional Chamber
— LV2828.9R+1R+0.5
moved 0.4 toward D
0.1%
source
Jan 2–6Glengariff Group
for Detroit News | WDIV-TV
600 LV3234R+2R+1.6
moved 0.4 toward D
0.0%
source
Nov 18–21 ’25Mitchell Research & Communications
for MIRS News Service
616 LV3137R+6R+5.8
moved 0.2 toward D
0.0%
source
Nov 6–11 ’25EPIC-MRA
for ABC 12
600 LV3334R+1R+0.9
moved 0.1 toward D
0.1%
source
Oct 23–25 ’25Rosetta Stone637 LV3439R+5R+5.0
0.2%
source
Oct 9–14 ’25Schoen Cooperman Research600 LV3029D+1D+1.0
0.2%
source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

YearDemocratRepublicanResult
2022Gretchen WhitmerTudor M. DixonD+10.5
2018Gretchen WhitmerBill SchuetteD+9.6
2014Mark SchauerRick SnyderR+4.1