Governors · 2026
Michigan Governor
Jocelyn Benson (D)v.John James (R)LIKELY D
Open seat, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+7.5
Nine in ten outcomes: D+16 to R+1
Chance of winning
93%
Jocelyn Benson
Polls alone
D+7.5
38 polls from 24 pollsters; latest Oct 9. Weight in projection: 100%.
Fundamentals alone
D+1.9
Weight in projection: 0%.
Polls
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past governor's races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.4).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineR+1.1
Partisan lean0.0
National environmentD+3.0
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundamentals estimateD+1.9
Input: partisan lean
D+0.1
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D
Not an input to the projection.
Table view
All 38 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Benson | James | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8–9 | Wedgewood Polls | 607 LV | 55 | 45 | D+10 | D+10.2 moved 0.2 toward D | 6.9% | source |
| Sep 22 – Oct 4 | YouGov | 3,949 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | D+2.6 moved 0.4 toward R | 6.5% | source |
| Sep 28 – Oct 1 | Z to A ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Rust Belt Rising | 483 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10 | D+6.8 moved 3.2 toward R | 5.9% | source |
| Oct 1 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 682 LV | 46 | 39 | D+7 | D+7.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 6.6% | source |
| Sep 24–28 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 1,203 RV | 54 | 45 | D+9 | D+9.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 4.0% | source |
| Sep 20–27 | Guidant Polling & Strategy for Public First Action | 800 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | D+5.0 | 5.5% | source |
| Sep 24–27 | Marist College | 1,235 RV | 53 | 41 | D+12 | D+11.3 moved 0.7 toward R | 3.5% | source |
| Sep 21–23 | co/efficient | 843 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+3.9 moved 0.9 toward D | 5.2% | source |
| Sep 15–22 | The New York Times/Siena College | 605 LV | 48.5 | 42.8 | D+6 | D+5.7 moved 0.1 toward D | 5.7% | source |
| Sep 18–21 | Cygnal for Michigan Enjoyer | 600 LV | 45 | 38 | D+7 | D+6.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 6.3% | source |
| Sep 16–20 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 50.6 | 34.4 | D+16 | D+15.5 moved 0.7 toward R | 5.5% | source |
| Sep 15–19 | Torchlight StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED for Common Sense for America PAC | 643 LV | 42 | 41 | D+1 | D+4.9 moved 3.9 toward D | 5.1% | source |
| Sep 10–14 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 803 LV | 53 | 41 | D+12 | D+11.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 5.0% | source |
| Sep 12–14 | Emerson College for Nexstar | 1,000 LV | 48.6 | 41.9 | D+7 | D+7.0 moved 0.3 toward D | 5.6% | source |
| Aug 31 – Sep 6 | CNN | 843 LV | 50 | 41 | D+9 | D+9.0 | 3.6% | source |
| Aug 31 – Sep 3 | Glengariff Group for Detroit News | WDIV-TV | 600 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | D+4.2 moved 0.2 toward D | 3.6% | source |
| Aug 22–28 | EPIC-MRA for MIRS | 600 LV | 45 | 41 | D+4 | D+4.0 | 3.3% | source |
| Aug 10–20 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | 779 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 | D+8.9 moved 0.1 toward R | 2.7% | source |
| Aug 9–11 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP | 877 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 | D+4.8 moved 0.2 toward R | 2.6% | source |
| Aug 6–10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 1,006 RV | 52 | 47 | D+5 | D+5.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 0.8% | source |
| Aug 6–10 | TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers | 1,215 LV | 53 | 36.6 | D+16 | D+19.6 moved 3.1 toward D | 2.4% | source |
| Jul 24–31 | EPIC-MRA for MIRS News Service | 600 LV | 47 | 38 | D+9 | D+9.0 | 1.0% | source |
| Jul 28–29 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 672 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | D+2.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 1.0% | source |
| Jul 22–24 | Glengariff Group for Business Leaders for Michigan | Michigan Education Association | 600 LV | 43.7 | 38.7 | D+5 | D+5.2 moved 0.2 toward D | 0.8% | source |
| Jun 11–13 | Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News Service | 827 LV | 51 | 40 | D+11 | D+11.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 0.2% | source |
| May 20–23 | TIPP InsightsREP.-ALIGNED for League of American Workers | 1,163 LV | 48.9 | 38 | D+11 | D+14.0 moved 3.1 toward D | 0.3% | source |
| May 1–7 | Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News Service | 606 LV | 42 | 30 | D+12 | D+12.1 moved 0.1 toward D | 0.1% | source |
| Apr 28 – May 1 | Glengariff Group for Detroit Regional Chamber | 600 LV | 34.2 | 29.2 | D+5 | D+5.2 moved 0.2 toward D | 0.1% | source |
| Mar 23–29 | Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Benson's campaign | 800 LV | 40 | 36 | D+4 | D+0.9 moved 3.1 toward R | 0.2% | source |
| Mar 2–24 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | 1,000 A | 28.5 | 21 | D+8 | D+7.5 | 0.1% | source |
| Mar 2–24 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | 1,000 A | 29.5 | 22.7 | D+7 | D+6.7 moved 0.1 toward R | 0.0% | source |
| Feb 9–16 | Impact ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED for Benson's campaign | 800 LV | 39 | 36 | D+3 | R+0.1 moved 3.1 toward R | 0.0% | source |
| Jan 27 – Feb 2 | Glengariff Group for Detroit Regional Chamber | — LV | 28 | 28.9 | R+1 | R+0.7 moved 0.2 toward D | 0.0% | source |
| Jan 2–6 | Glengariff Group for Detroit News | WDIV-TV | 600 LV | 32 | 34 | R+2 | R+1.8 moved 0.2 toward D | 0.0% | source |
| Nov 18–21 ’25 | Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News Service | 616 LV | 31 | 37 | R+6 | R+5.9 moved 0.1 toward D | 0.0% | source |
| Nov 6–11 ’25 | EPIC-MRA for ABC 12 | 600 LV | 33 | 34 | R+1 | R+1.0 | 0.0% | source |
| Oct 23–25 ’25 | Rosetta Stone | 637 LV | 34 | 39 | R+5 | R+5.0 | 0.0% | source |
| Oct 9–14 ’25 | Schoen Cooperman Research | 600 LV | 30 | 29 | D+1 | D+1.0 | 0.0% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Gretchen Whitmer | Tudor M. Dixon | D+10.5 |
| 2018 | Gretchen Whitmer | Bill Schuette | D+9.6 |
| 2014 | Mark Schauer | Rick Snyder | R+4.1 |